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Shamrock Rovers crestShamrock Rovers
v
Waterford crestWaterford

Premier Division | Fri 18 Sep, 20:00

Shamrock Rovers v Waterford Stats

Data last updated: Thu 17 Sep 2026, 08:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Waterford host Shamrock Rovers in a Premier Division clash where the bottom-placed home side have shown a tactical resurgence under Graham Coughlan, collecting more points in his first five games than in the previous fifteen. Waterford's recent 4-0 win over Sligo Rovers highlighted their efficient attacking despite limited possession, but defensive frailties remain, conceding nearly two goals per match. Shamrock Rovers arrive motivated to respond after a narrow defeat, boasting dominant possession stats and a strong attacking record. This fixture promises a tactical contrast: Shamrock's control versus Waterford's direct counter-attacks, with both sides eager to prove their mettle under pressure.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Shamrock Rovers to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 31%, above the 16% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Waterford have improved under new management, earning more points recently than in prior matches.
  • Shamrock Rovers dominate possession, averaging 63.7% in recent games, pressuring opponents consistently.
  • Waterford concede 1.9 goals per match on average, exposing defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Shamrock Rovers have won seven of the last eight meetings, showing historical control.
Price warning

Shamrock Rovers to Win & Both Teams to Score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 31% while the model sits nearer 16% (-15.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Under 2.5 Goals shows a +14.3 pts edge at 2.3.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The selection balances Shamrock Rovers' possession control and attacking depth against Waterford's recent tactical improvements and goal-scoring efficiency at home. Despite the being below the market implied probability, the football context supports a competitive match where both teams find the net. Waterford's defensive weaknesses and Shamrock's consistent pressure create a scenario conducive to goals at both ends. However, the current are short relative to model expectations, so a reduced stake is advised until price or team news improve the value.

Model Chance14.5%
Neutral
Market Implied Chance31.3%
Negative
Recent FormWaterford's points increase under new management
Positive
Defensive VulnerabilityWaterford concedes 1.9 goals per match
Positive
Possession ControlShamrock Rovers average 63.7% possession
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Shamrock Rovers' superior possession and attacking quality should secure a win, but Waterford's recent tactical revival and clinical finishing at home make this a contest where both teams are likely to score. The match promises intensity and goals, reflecting the contrasting styles and stakes for both sides.

Main risk

A sloppy performance here would not ruin their campaign, but it would invite noise.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tactical and scoring dynamics

“This fixture pits Shamrock Rovers' structured control against Waterford's revitalized counter-attacking threat, making a competitive, goal-filled game highly probable despite the price caution.”

Key Data Signals

Shamrock Rovers to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Waterford have improved under new management, earning more points recently than in prior matches.

Shamrock Rovers dominate possession, averaging 63.7% in recent games, pressuring opponents consistently.

Waterford concede 1.9 goals per match on average, exposing defensive vulnerabilities.

Shamrock Rovers have won seven of the last eight meetings, showing historical control.

What To Watch In The Data

Shamrock Rovers to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • Both teams have shown a 40% rate for Over 2.5 goals recently, suggesting that this fixture has the potential for multiple goals through open play and transitions, supported by Waterford's defensive concessions and Shamrock's attacking volume.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Shamrock Rovers4.8
Avg corners for
Waterford7.25
Shamrock Rovers8.4
Avg total corners
Waterford12.75
Shamrock Rovers2.6
Avg yellow cards
Waterford1.5
Shamrock Rovers11.2
Avg shots
Waterford18.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
Waterford average 8.25 corners per game, reflecting their direct attacking style and set-piece involvement, while Shamrock Rovers average 4.8 corners, consistent with their possession-based approach. Shamrock's higher shot volume (11.2) and shots on target (4.6) contrast with Waterford's more frequent but less controlled attempts (18.25 shots, 6 on target), indicating a match with varied attacking patterns and fouling risks.

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Shamrock Rovers v Waterford predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Shamrock Rovers1.2
Avg goals scored
Waterford1.6
Shamrock Rovers1.4
Avg goals conceded
Waterford0.8
Shamrock Rovers40%
BTTS rate
Waterford60%
Shamrock Rovers40%
Over 2.5 goals
Waterford40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +14.3 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have shown solid goal-scoring form recently, with Waterford scoring 1.6 goals per game and Shamrock Rovers 1.2. Waterford's defensive record concedes nearly two goals per match, while Shamrock's attacking pressure creates frequent chances, supporting a scenario where both sides find the net in an open, competitive fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickShamrock Rovers Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 45% vs implied 79% · edge -33.7 pts
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Shamrock Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
The current price for Shamrock Rovers to Win & Both Teams to Score is shorter than the model's probability suggests, indicating a price-sensitive market. While the football read is strong given Shamrock's control and Waterford's attacking threat, the imply a higher chance than the model supports, warranting cautious staking and monitoring for price improvements or lineup changes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Shamrock Rovers

LDDWD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
11 Sep 2026A St Patrick's Athl.0-2
04 Sep 2026H Shelbourne0-0
30 Aug 2026A Derry City3-3
07 Aug 2026H Dundalk3-2
31 Jul 2026A Drogheda United0-0

Waterford

DDWDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 5D 0L
14 Sep 2026H Derry City2-2
11 Sep 2026H Dundalk1-1
28 Aug 2026A St Patrick's Athl.2-0
21 Aug 2026A Sligo Rovers0-0
09 Aug 2026H Bohemians3-1
Market aligned with main pickShamrock Rovers Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 45% vs implied 79% · edge -33.7 pts
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Shamrock Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Waterford have collected 9 points in recent matches, showing a marked improvement under new management, including a 4-0 win that boosted . Shamrock Rovers have earned 6 points recently but suffered a narrow defeat despite dominating possession, adding motivation to respond strongly. Both teams' recent form suggests a competitive match with goals expected at both ends.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

8Shamrock Rovers wins
1Draws
1Waterford wins
19 Jun 2026Waterford v Shamrock Rovers0-2
01 May 2026Shamrock Rovers v Waterford1-0
03 Apr 2026Waterford v Shamrock Rovers1-1
22 Sep 2025Waterford v Shamrock Rovers1-2
27 Jun 2025Shamrock Rovers v Waterford1-0
16 May 2025Waterford v Shamrock Rovers1-3
Market aligned with main pickShamrock Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 69% · edge -42 pts
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Shamrock Rovers have dominated recent head-to-heads, remaining unbeaten in eight consecutive matches against Waterford, including seven wins. This historical control supports Shamrock's chances of victory but also adds motivation for Waterford to challenge strongly at home, which aligns with expectations for both teams to score in a competitive encounter.
Season team stats

Premier Division

Shamrock Rovers30
Played
Waterford31
Shamrock Rovers1.5
Avg goals for
Waterford1.4
Shamrock Rovers1
Avg goals against
Waterford1.6
Shamrock Rovers11
Clean sheets
Waterford6
Market aligned with main pickShamrock Rovers Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 45% vs implied 79% · edge -33.7 pts
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Load more odds for this section
Shamrock Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Shamrock Rovers rank second with 56 points, scoring 32 goals and conceding 19, reflecting balanced attacking and defensive strength. Waterford sit eighth with 34 points, scoring 25 but conceding 40, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Shamrock's possession control and efficient attack contrast with Waterford's reliance on direct, efficient scoring and a porous defense, underpinning the combined win and BTTS selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Shamrock Rovers5630168617
8Waterford343171311-9
Shamrock Rovers' position near the top of the table underscores their quality and title ambitions, while Waterford's lower standing reflects their struggles. However, recent tactical improvements and points gained by Waterford add complexity to the fixture, making it less predictable than the table suggests and increasing the likelihood of a contested match with goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Shamrock Rovers Over 2.5
40%Waterford Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Both teams have shown a 40% rate for Over 2.5 goals recently, suggesting that this fixture has the potential for multiple goals through open play and transitions, supported by Waterford's defensive concessions and Shamrock's attacking volume.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Shamrock Rovers v Waterford prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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