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Dundalk crestDundalk
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Shelbourne crestShelbourne

Premier Division | Fri 18 Sep, 19:45

Dundalk v Shelbourne Stats

Data last updated: Thu 17 Sep 2026, 08:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Premier Division clash between Shelbourne and Dundalk carries significant weight as both sides jostle for European qualification spots. Shelbourne, under interim coach Lorcan Fitzgerald, seek to reset after a mixed run of draws and a heavy home defeat, while Dundalk aim to maintain momentum despite a recent setback at home. Both teams deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation, setting up a tactical battle focused on midfield control and exploiting spaces between the lines. Shelbourne's home struggles contrast with Dundalk's solid away form, promising a competitive and tense encounter at Tolka Park.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Shelbourne average 1.2 goals scored and conceded per game, indicating open matches.
  • Dundalk average 16.3 attempts and 4.8 shots on target per match, showing offensive intent.
  • Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, with Dundalk conceding 32 goals in 22 games.
  • Recent matches show Shelbourne drawing 4 of their last 6 and Dundalk losing only 1 of their last 8 away games.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score highly due to the attacking tendencies and defensive frailties of both sides. Shelbourne's balanced scoring and concession rates around 1.2 goals per game, combined with Dundalk's high shot volume and recent defensive lapses, create a strong likelihood of goals at both ends. The price reflects good value with a 10.6% edge over implied . No data limitations affect , making this a solid selection based on tactical and statistical evidence.

Shelbourne scoring/conceding balance1.2 goals per game each
Strong positive
Dundalk attacking volume16.3 attempts and 4.8 shots on target per match
Strong positive
Dundalk defensive vulnerability32 goals conceded in 22 games
Positive
Recent form consistencyShelbourne 4 draws in last 6, Dundalk 1 defeat in last 8 away
Positive
Main risk

That four-point gap gives the visitors a little breathing room, but not enough to relax.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“The tactical setup and player roles on both sides point to a match where offensive intent meets defensive fragility, creating fertile ground for goals from both teams.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Shelbourne average 1.2 goals scored and conceded per game, indicating open matches.

Dundalk average 16.3 attempts and 4.8 shots on target per match, showing offensive intent.

Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, with Dundalk conceding 32 goals in 22 games.

Recent matches show Shelbourne drawing 4 of their last 6 and Dundalk losing only 1 of their last 8 away games.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.2, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
  • Recent matches have featured goals from both teams, reflecting a tempo that allows offensive opportunities and defensive lapses.
  • This trend suggests a reasonable probability for Over 2.5 goals, complementing the BTTS selection with an expectation of multiple scoring chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Dundalk1.4
Avg goals scored
Shelbourne0.6
Dundalk2.4
Avg goals conceded
Shelbourne1.2
Dundalk80%
BTTS rate
Shelbourne60%
Dundalk80%
Over 2.5 goals
Shelbourne40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Shelbourne and Dundalk both average over one goal scored and conceded per game, supporting the likelihood of goals at both ends. Shelbourne's 1.2 goals scored and conceded per match and Dundalk's 1.4 goals scored with defensive lapses create a scenario conducive to BTTS. The teams' recent matches further reinforce this pattern, with open games and goal exchanges expected.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Dundalk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Dundalk to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Shelbourne to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Shelbourne Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetUK guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 1.53, reflecting a 65.4% implied chance, while the model estimates a 76% probability, indicating positive value. This pricing aligns well with the attacking and defensive profiles of both teams, making the market an attractive option without major price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Dundalk4.8
Avg corners for
Shelbourne5.2
Dundalk8.4
Avg total corners
Shelbourne9.2
Dundalk3
Avg yellow cards
Shelbourne3.2
Dundalk14.4
Avg shots
Shelbourne15
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Shelbourne average 6 corners per match compared to Dundalk's 3.5, indicating Shelbourne's territorial advantage and attacking pressure at home. Dundalk's higher shot volume and shots on target reflect their offensive threat. Both teams maintain moderate card averages, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive contest with sustained attacking phases and set-piece opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Dundalk

LDWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
14 Sep 2026H St Patrick's Athl.0-4
11 Sep 2026A Waterford1-1
28 Aug 2026A Drogheda United3-2
21 Aug 2026H Galway United1-2
07 Aug 2026A Shamrock Rovers2-3

Shelbourne

LLDDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
14 Sep 2026H Drogheda United1-2
11 Sep 2026H Derry City0-1
04 Sep 2026A Shamrock Rovers0-0
28 Aug 2026A Galway United1-1
09 Aug 2026H St Patrick's Athl.1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 79% vs implied 74% · edge +5.3 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Dundalk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Dundalk to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Shelbourne to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Shelbourne Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetUK guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Recent form data shows Shelbourne drawing four of their last six league matches, reflecting a pattern of competitive but inconclusive results. Dundalk have lost only one of their last eight away fixtures, demonstrating resilience and consistent offensive output. Both teams' recent matches have featured goals at both ends, reinforcing the expectation for a BTTS outcome in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Dundalk wins
2Draws
7Shelbourne wins
03 Jul 2026Shelbourne v Dundalk2-1
01 May 2026Dundalk v Shelbourne1-2
03 Apr 2026Shelbourne v Dundalk2-3
20 Jan 2026Shelbourne v Dundalk2-1
30 Aug 2024Dundalk v Shelbourne0-1
07 Jun 2024Shelbourne v Dundalk1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Dundalk to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Shelbourne to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
DrawBetUK guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The last ten meetings between Shelbourne and Dundalk show a competitive balance, with Shelbourne winning five, Dundalk two, and three draws. The average goals per match of 2.2 reflect moderately open contests. While Shelbourne have a slight psychological edge at home, Dundalk's strong away form tempers this, making the head-to-head record a supportive but not decisive factor for BTTS.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premier Division

Dundalk31
Played
Shelbourne30
Dundalk1.5
Avg goals for
Shelbourne1.3
Dundalk1.6
Avg goals against
Shelbourne1.4
Dundalk5
Clean sheets
Shelbourne6
Best odds for this sectionDundalk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 57% · edge +3.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Dundalk to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Shelbourne to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Shelbourne Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Season-long statistics reveal Shelbourne's balanced scoring and conceding rates of 1.2 goals per game, while Dundalk average 1.4 goals scored but have conceded 32 goals in 22 matches. This combination of offensive productivity and defensive vulnerability on both sides supports the likelihood of goals from both teams in this match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Dundalk4131101110-3
7Shelbourne363081210-4
Dundalk sit fourth with 41 points from 22 games, while Shelbourne are seventh with 36 points from 23 matches. The narrow point gap and proximity in the table add competitive intensity, with both teams motivated to secure points. This context supports an open game where both sides seek to assert themselves offensively to improve their league positions.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Dundalk Over 2.5
40%Shelbourne Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.2, indicating a moderate scoring trend. Recent matches have featured goals from both teams, reflecting a tempo that allows offensive opportunities and defensive lapses. This trend suggests a reasonable probability for Over 2.5 goals, complementing the BTTS selection with an expectation of multiple scoring chances.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Dundalk v Shelbourne prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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