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SC Paderborn 07 crestSC Paderborn 07
v
1899 Hoffenheim crest1899 Hoffenheim

Bundesliga | Sun 20 Sep, 18:30

SC Paderborn 07 v 1899 Hoffenheim Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SC Paderborn 07 hosts 1899 Hoffenheim in a Bundesliga clash where both teams have shown contrasting attacking and defensive traits. Hoffenheim's recent matches have been more open, reflected in their higher goals conceded and aggressive wing play, while Paderborn's defensive struggles and lower scoring output suggest they may rely on set-piece opportunities. The tactical setup hints at a game with sustained flank pressure and multiple attacking transitions, setting the stage for a high number of corners as Hoffenheim pushes forward and Paderborn seeks to relieve pressure.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Hoffenheim averages 7.33 corners per game, significantly higher than Paderborn's 3.33.
  • Both teams' styles promote wing play and crossing, increasing corner potential.
  • Recent form shows Hoffenheim's matches consistently exceed 9.5 corners.
  • Paderborn's defensive vulnerability often forces defensive clearances leading to corners.
  • Model projects a 69% chance for over 9.5 corners, with positive value at 1.73 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies strong value in Over 9.5 Corners with a 69% chance against a 57.8% implied market chance, supported by Hoffenheim's high corner rate and Paderborn's defensive style. Hoffenheim's average of 7.33 corners per game combined with Paderborn's 3.33 creates a solid base for this bet. The teams' attacking tendencies and recent match tempo further reinforce the likelihood of frequent corner situations. No data limitations or price warnings affect this confident selection.

Model Chance69%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance57.8%
Positive
Hoffenheim Avg Corners7.33 per game
Strong positive
Paderborn Avg Corners3.33 per game
Positive
Recent Match TempoHigh attacking transitions
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with frequent wing attacks and defensive clearances leading to numerous corners. Hoffenheim's aggressive style and Paderborn's defensive frailties combine to create a scenario ripe for over 9.5 corners. The data supports this with Hoffenheim's strong corner averages and recent match patterns indicating sustained pressure and set-piece chances.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corner market analysis

“This fixture's tactical dynamics and recent corner statistics strongly suggest a high-volume corner count, making Over 9.5 Corners a compelling angle for bettors.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Hoffenheim averages 7.33 corners per game, significantly higher than Paderborn's 3.33.

Both teams' styles promote wing play and crossing, increasing corner potential.

Recent form shows Hoffenheim's matches consistently exceed 9.5 corners.

Paderborn's defensive vulnerability often forces defensive clearances leading to corners.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.5, indicating relatively low scoring but does not diminish corner potential.
  • Recent Bundesliga matches involving these teams show a trend towards over 2.5 goals and high tempo, which correlates with increased corner counts due to open play and attacking transitions.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

SC Paderborn 073.33
Avg corners for
1899 Hoffenheim7.5
SC Paderborn 0710.67
Avg total corners
1899 Hoffenheim12.5
SC Paderborn 072
Avg yellow cards
1899 Hoffenheim2.5
SC Paderborn 0711.33
Avg shots
1899 Hoffenheim19
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 60%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Hoffenheim's average of 17.67 shots and 7.33 corners per game reflect their offensive pressure and wing play. Paderborn's 11.33 shots and 3.33 corners show moderate attacking attempts. Both teams average around 2 yellow cards, indicating a moderately physical game that can lead to fouls near the box and subsequent corner kicks.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

SC Paderborn 070
Avg goals scored
1899 Hoffenheim2
SC Paderborn 071.33
Avg goals conceded
1899 Hoffenheim2.33
SC Paderborn 070%
BTTS rate
1899 Hoffenheim100%
SC Paderborn 0733%
Over 2.5 goals
1899 Hoffenheim100%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 48% vs implied 36% · edge +11.2 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2
Check odds @ 2
While Hoffenheim's matches often feature goals and BTTS, Paderborn's lower scoring and clean sheet rates suggest a more defensive posture. However, the attacking pressure from Hoffenheim can still generate many attacking sequences leading to corners, even if goals are less frequent, supporting the corner market rather than goal markets.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this section1899 Hoffenheim Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 57% · edge +10.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
1899 Hoffenheim to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
SC Paderborn 07 to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
SC Paderborn 07 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced attractively at 1.73 with a of 69%, indicating clear value. The implied market chance is 57.8%, showing the market underestimates the likelihood of this outcome. This positive of 11.2% justifies a standard stake with in the corner volume forecast.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

SC Paderborn 07

LLD
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
12 Sep 2026A Borussia Dortmund0-3
05 Sep 2026H SC Freiburg0-1
29 Aug 2026A FSV Mainz 050-0

1899 Hoffenheim

WLL
Last 51W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 2L
12 Sep 2026H VfB Stuttgart2-1
05 Sep 2026H Borussia Dortmund2-3
29 Aug 2026A 1. FC Köln2-3
Best odds for this section1899 Hoffenheim Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 57% · edge +10.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
1899 Hoffenheim to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
SC Paderborn 07 to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
SC Paderborn 07 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Recent form data shows Hoffenheim consistently generates matches with high corner counts, aligning with their aggressive attacking style. Paderborn's matches have fewer corners on average but their defensive vulnerabilities often lead to conceding corners. This combination supports the likelihood of exceeding 9.5 corners in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0SC Paderborn 07 wins
2Draws
21899 Hoffenheim wins
23 May 2020SC Paderborn 07 v 1899 Hoffenheim1-1
01 Nov 20191899 Hoffenheim v SC Paderborn 073-0
21 Mar 2015SC Paderborn 07 v 1899 Hoffenheim0-0
25 Oct 20141899 Hoffenheim v SC Paderborn 071-0
Best odds for this section1899 Hoffenheim to WinBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 60% · edge -0.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
SC Paderborn 07 to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The head-to-head sample of four matches shows moderate goal scoring but limited direct corner data. While previous meetings provide some background, the current tactical approaches and recent form data offer stronger signals for corner volume expectations in this fixture.
Season team stats

Bundesliga

SC Paderborn 073
Played
1899 Hoffenheim3
SC Paderborn 070
Avg goals for
1899 Hoffenheim2
SC Paderborn 071.3
Avg goals against
1899 Hoffenheim2.3
SC Paderborn 071
Clean sheets
1899 Hoffenheim0
Best odds for this section1899 Hoffenheim Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 57% · edge +10.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
1899 Hoffenheim to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
SC Paderborn 07 to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
SC Paderborn 07 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over the season, Hoffenheim's average corners per game (7.33) is among the higher rates in the league, reflecting their wing-based attacks and crossing frequency. Paderborn's 3.33 corners per game add to the total, making the combined corner count naturally inclined to surpass 9.5. Defensive tendencies and set-piece reliance further support this market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
131899 Hoffenheim33102-1
16SC Paderborn 0713012-4
Both teams sit in the lower half of the Bundesliga table, with Hoffenheim slightly ahead. While league position does not directly dictate corner counts, the competitive nature of this mid-table clash encourages attacking efforts and set-piece battles, which can increase corner opportunities as both sides seek points.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%SC Paderborn 07 Over 2.5
100%1899 Hoffenheim Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
In the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.5, indicating relatively low scoring but does not diminish corner potential. Recent Bundesliga matches involving these teams show a trend towards over 2.5 goals and high tempo, which correlates with increased corner counts due to open play and attacking transitions.

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