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Sarpsborg 08 FF crestSarpsborg 08 FF
v
Valerenga crestValerenga

Eliteserien | Sun 06 Sep, 16:00

Sarpsborg 08 FF v Valerenga Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Eliteserien clash between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga promises an open encounter with both teams showing attacking intent. Sarpsborg 08 FF has scored at a modest rate but maintains a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, while Valerenga boasts a potent offense averaging 2.4 goals per game and a perfect 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides suggest a high-scoring game, with Valerenga's aggressive style likely to test Sarpsborg's backline. The fixture's mid-table stakes add urgency to both sides' attacking approaches, setting the stage for multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Valerenga has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season, indicating consistent high-scoring games.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF concedes 1.4 goals per match, showing defensive frailties that can be exploited.
  • Average combined shots per game exceed 30, reflecting offensive pressure from both teams.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 3.9 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 58% chance to Over 3.5 Goals, reflecting the attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses of both teams. Valerenga's prolific offense, led by key players with high shot volumes and goal threat, combines with Sarpsborg 08 FF's susceptibility at the back to create a favorable environment for multiple goals. The 8% and positive pricing at 2.0 further support this selection. No data limitations affect , and the current price aligns well with the model's assessment, making this a solid value bet.

Valerenga's offensive output2.4 goals per game, 100% over 2.5 rate
Strong positive
Sarpsborg 08 FF defensive record1.4 goals conceded per game
Positive
Head-to-head average goals3.9 goals per match
Positive
Market value edge8% positive edge at 2.0 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game with Valerenga's offensive firepower likely to break down Sarpsborg 08 FF's defense. The high average goals in recent meetings and both teams' scoring tendencies suggest Over 3.5 Goals is a fitting selection for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics and goal potential

“Valerenga's aggressive attacking style combined with Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive vulnerabilities sets the stage for a high-scoring match. The statistical trends and player shot volumes strongly indicate multiple goals in this encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Valerenga has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season, indicating consistent high-scoring games.

Sarpsborg 08 FF concedes 1.4 goals per match, showing defensive frailties that can be exploited.

Average combined shots per game exceed 30, reflecting offensive pressure from both teams.

Recent head-to-head matches average 3.9 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals tally stands at 3.9, indicating a history of open games with multiple goals.
  • This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a continuation of high-tempo, goal-laden encounters.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sarpsborg 08 FF4.6
Avg corners for
Valerenga5.4
Sarpsborg 08 FF10.6
Avg total corners
Valerenga12
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.6
Avg yellow cards
Valerenga2.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF14.4
Avg shots
Valerenga17.4

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sarpsborg 08 FF1.2
Avg goals scored
Valerenga2.4
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.4
Avg goals conceded
Valerenga3.2
Sarpsborg 08 FF60%
BTTS rate
Valerenga80%
Sarpsborg 08 FF60%
Over 2.5 goals
Valerenga100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 50% · edge +8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Both teams have shown a propensity for goals and BTTS outcomes, with Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga posting 60% and 80% BTTS rates respectively. Valerenga's perfect over 2.5 goals rate and Sarpsborg's moderate scoring combine with defensive lapses to create a strong goal-scoring environment.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 71% · edge +6.3 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Valerenga Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Valerenga to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Sarpsborg 08 FF Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Sarpsborg 08 FF to WinBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.0 with an implied chance of 50%, while the model estimates a 58% probability. This positive of 8% suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making it a favorable betting opportunity without any price warnings.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sarpsborg 08 FF

DLLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
30 Aug 2026A Tromso0-0
16 Aug 2026H Sandefjord1-2
08 Aug 2026A Viking1-2
02 Aug 2026A Molde3-3
26 Jul 2026H Ham-Kam1-0

Valerenga

LDLLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
30 Aug 2026H Molde3-4
16 Aug 2026A Aalesund5-5
08 Aug 2026H Bodo/Glimt1-2
31 Jul 2026H Ham-Kam0-3
26 Jul 2026A Brann3-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 52% · edge +13.1 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Valerenga Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Valerenga to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Sarpsborg 08 FF Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Sarpsborg 08 FF to WinBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Recent form data shows Valerenga's consistent high-scoring output with a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, while Sarpsborg 08 FF also contributes to high-scoring games with a 60% rate. Both teams have scored and conceded regularly, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-rich fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Sarpsborg 08 FF wins
2Draws
6Valerenga wins
16 May 2026Valerenga v Sarpsborg 08 FF3-2
17 Aug 2025Valerenga v Sarpsborg 08 FF4-0
06 Apr 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF v Valerenga1-1
01 Feb 2025Valerenga v Sarpsborg 08 FF1-0
09 Mar 2024Valerenga v Sarpsborg 08 FF5-3
05 Nov 2023Sarpsborg 08 FF v Valerenga3-2
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 71% · edge +6.3 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Valerenga to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Sarpsborg 08 FF to WinBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The ten previous meetings between these teams have averaged nearly four goals per game, highlighting a pattern of attacking openness and defensive vulnerabilities. This historical data supports the expectation of a high-scoring match in this fixture.
Season team stats

Eliteserien

Sarpsborg 08 FF18
Played
Valerenga18
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.1
Avg goals for
Valerenga1.7
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.3
Avg goals against
Valerenga2.1
Sarpsborg 08 FF5
Clean sheets
Valerenga2
Best odds for this sectionValerenga Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 42% · edge +4.8 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Valerenga to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Sarpsborg 08 FF Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Sarpsborg 08 FF to WinBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Season-long statistics reveal Valerenga's potent offense averaging 2.4 goals per game and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive concessions at 1.4 goals per match. These figures support the expectation of multiple goals, aligning with the Over 3.5 Goals market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Sarpsborg 08 FF2318657-3
11Valerenga2118639-7
Both teams sit mid-table with Sarpsborg 08 FF ninth and Valerenga eleventh, separated by just two points. This proximity increases the competitive stakes, encouraging attacking play to secure vital points, which may contribute to a higher goal count.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Sarpsborg 08 FF Over 2.5
100%Valerenga Over 2.5
3.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals tally stands at 3.9, indicating a history of open games with multiple goals. This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a continuation of high-tempo, goal-laden encounters.

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