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Brann crestBrann
v
Lillestrom crestLillestrom

Eliteserien | Sat 05 Sep, 17:00

Brann v Lillestrom Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Brann hosts Lillestrom in a tightly contested Eliteserien clash where both teams sit level on 26 points, separated only by goal difference. Brann's recent form shows a stronger attacking edge with 10 points gained in their last matches compared to Lillestrom's single point, reflecting a more confident and effective offensive approach. Tactical discipline and home advantage could be decisive as Brann aims to capitalize on their momentum and secure a vital win in this mid-table battle.

BT4Y best bet

Brann to Win

  • Brann has collected 10 points recently, showing clear form superiority over Lillestrom's 1 point.
  • Brann averages 15.8 shots per game with 6 on target, outshooting Lillestrom's 13.2 shots and 3 on target.
  • Brann's attack is potent, with a 60% BTTS rate and 80% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating open games.
  • The head-to-head average of 2.7 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring fixture.
  • Brann ranks 5th with a better defensive record (1.2 goals conceded) than Lillestrom (2.6).

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Brann to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and offensive output. Brann's higher shot volume and better defensive stability underpin this , while Lillestrom's struggles in defense and limited points accumulation weaken their case. The at 1.8 offer a positive of 18.4%, making Brann a compelling pick. The data quality is solid, with no limitations on team stats, supporting a reliable prediction.

Recent FormBrann 10 points vs Lillestrom 1 point
Strong positive
Shots & Offensive PressureBrann 15.8 shots/game vs Lillestrom 13.2
Positive
Defensive RecordBrann concedes 1.2 goals/game vs Lillestrom 2.6
Strong positive
Market Value Edge18.4% positive value at 1.8 odds
Strong positive
Data QualityComplete data for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Brann's recent form and offensive control make them the clear favorite to secure victory. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain defensive solidity contrasts with Lillestrom's struggles, suggesting Brann can control the game and convert chances effectively to claim three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Brann's attacking efficiency combined with a sturdier defense sets a strong foundation for a home win. Lillestrom's defensive vulnerabilities and poor recent form make it difficult for them to challenge effectively in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Brann to Win evidence

Brann has collected 10 points recently, showing clear form superiority over Lillestrom's 1 point.

Brann averages 15.8 shots per game with 6 on target, outshooting Lillestrom's 13.2 shots and 3 on target.

Brann's attack is potent, with a 60% BTTS rate and 80% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating open games.

The head-to-head average of 2.7 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring fixture.

What To Watch In The Data

Brann to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a trend towards moderately high-scoring games.
  • This suggests that the match could feature open play and multiple goal opportunities, consistent with both teams' attacking tendencies.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Brann2
Avg goals scored
Lillestrom0.6
Brann1.2
Avg goals conceded
Lillestrom2.6
Brann60%
BTTS rate
Lillestrom60%
Brann80%
Over 2.5 goals
Lillestrom60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 87% vs implied 88% · edge -1.1 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have shown tendencies towards open games, with Brann's 80% Over 2.5 goals rate and 60% BTTS rate, matched by Lillestrom's 60% rates in both categories. The head-to-head average of 2.7 goals supports expectations of multiple goals and both teams finding the net.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBrann to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Brann Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
The for Brann to win at 1.8 reflect a market aligned with the model's 74% chance, indicating positive value. This price is attractive given Brann's superior form and attacking metrics, suggesting the market may be underestimating their likelihood of victory slightly.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Brann6.4
Avg corners for
Lillestrom6.67
Brann12.4
Avg total corners
Lillestrom11.67
Brann1.8
Avg yellow cards
Lillestrom2.33
Brann15.8
Avg shots
Lillestrom14
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 69% · edge -0.4 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Brann averages 6.4 corners and 1.8 yellow cards per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure and moderate discipline. Lillestrom's similar corner count but higher fouling rate (2 yellows per game) suggests a physical contest with set-piece opportunities influencing the match flow.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Brann

DWWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
30 Aug 2026A Sandefjord0-0
16 Aug 2026H Ham-Kam3-0
02 Aug 2026H Rosenborg3-2
26 Jul 2026H Valerenga2-3
18 Jul 2026A Molde2-1

Lillestrom

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
30 Aug 2026H Fredrikstad1-4
15 Aug 2026A KFUM Oslo1-1
09 Aug 2026H Rosenborg0-2
31 Jul 2026A Bodo/Glimt0-4
22 Jul 2026H Viking1-2
Market aligned with main pickBrann to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Brann Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Brann's recent accumulation of 10 points contrasts sharply with Lillestrom's single point, highlighting a momentum advantage. Brann's ability to score and defend effectively in recent matches underpins in their winning chances, while Lillestrom's struggles suggest difficulty in mounting a sustained challenge.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Brann wins
3Draws
0Lillestrom wins
09 Nov 2024Brann v Lillestrom2-1
12 May 2024Lillestrom v Brann0-2
01 Oct 2023Lillestrom v Brann0-2
11 Jun 2023Brann v Lillestrom2-2
20 May 2023Brann v Lillestrom2-0
11 Sep 2021Lillestrom v Brann2-3
Market aligned with main pickBrann to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 2.7 goals per game, reflecting a history of relatively open contests. While this supports expectations for goals, it only weakly supports a specific outcome, emphasizing the importance of current form and tactical execution.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Eliteserien

Brann19
Played
Lillestrom19
Brann1.9
Avg goals for
Lillestrom1.4
Brann1.5
Avg goals against
Lillestrom1.4
Brann3
Clean sheets
Lillestrom5
Market aligned with main pickBrann to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Brann Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over the season, Brann has demonstrated a balanced attack and defense, scoring 2 goals per game and conceding 1.2, supporting their capacity to control matches. Lillestrom's higher concession rate of 2.6 goals per game signals defensive vulnerabilities that Brann can exploit.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Lillestrom29199280
7Brann26198298
Both teams are closely ranked, 5th and 6th respectively, with identical points totals. This proximity adds competitive tension but Brann's slightly better goal difference and form provide a subtle edge in this mid-table clash.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Brann Over 2.5
60%Lillestrom Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a trend towards moderately high-scoring games. This suggests that the match could feature open play and multiple goal opportunities, consistent with both teams' attacking tendencies.

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