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Santos Laguna crestSantos Laguna
v
FC Juarez crestFC Juarez

Liga MX | Mon 14 Sep, 02:00

Santos Laguna v FC Juarez Stats

Data last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026, 17:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Santos Laguna faces FC Juarez in a crucial Liga MX clash where both teams are struggling near the bottom of the standings. Santos Laguna has shown slight defensive resilience recently, while Juarez's attack has been inconsistent despite some promising individual efforts. The match carries high stakes as both sides seek to climb out of the relegation zone, with tactical caution expected given their recent low-scoring encounters and defensive vulnerabilities. This contest is likely to be tight, with Santos Laguna aiming to leverage home advantage and avoid defeat to gain vital points.

BT4Y best bet

Santos Laguna Draw No Bet

  • Santos Laguna has a 65.8% to avoid defeat, offering strong value at 1.95 .
  • Juarez concedes an average of 3.8 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Santos Laguna averages 7.33 corners per match, suggesting territorial control and attacking pressure.
  • Ayón is a key attacking threat with 6.43 shots per 90 minutes, though without goals yet.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Santos Laguna Draw No Bet due to their superior defensive record and home form compared to Juarez's struggles at the back. Santos Laguna's ability to generate more shots and corners underlines their attacking potential to secure at least a draw. The price offers positive value with a 14.5% edge, reflecting the football context of a tight, low-scoring match where Santos Laguna's resilience and home advantage are decisive. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance65.8%
Strong positive
Implied Chance51.3%
Positive
Value Edge14.5%
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthSantos Laguna concedes 1.6 goals vs Juarez 3.8
Strong positive
Attacking PressureSantos Laguna averages 7.33 corners per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Santos Laguna's defensive solidity and home advantage make them the safer side to avoid defeat against a Juarez team conceding heavily. Their ability to maintain pressure through corners and shots supports the Draw No Bet selection as a tactically sound and data-backed choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical dynamics

“Santos Laguna's defensive resilience combined with Juarez's leaky backline creates a compelling case for a Draw No Bet. The home side's territorial control and set-piece threat should be key factors in securing at least a point.”

Key Data Signals

Santos Laguna Draw No Bet evidence

Santos Laguna has a 65.8% to avoid defeat, offering strong value at 1.95 .

Juarez concedes an average of 3.8 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Santos Laguna averages 7.33 corners per match, suggesting territorial control and attacking pressure.

Ayón is a key attacking threat with 6.43 shots per 90 minutes, though without goals yet.

What To Watch In The Data

Santos Laguna Draw No Bet notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating moderately open games.
  • However, recent trends show a decline in goals and increased defensive caution, suggesting that Over 2.5 goals is less likely.
  • The tempo and chance quality point towards a match where defensive organization will be key, aligning with the Draw No Bet selection favoring Santos Laguna.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Santos Laguna8
Avg corners for
FC Juarez2.2
Santos Laguna13.8
Avg total corners
FC Juarez7.2
Santos Laguna1.6
Avg yellow cards
FC Juarez2.8
Santos Laguna12.2
Avg shots
FC Juarez7.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Santos Laguna averages 7.33 corners per match, indicating sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Both teams have similar yellow card averages around 2 per game, suggesting a balanced disciplinary profile. Santos Laguna's higher shot volume (14 per game) compared to Juarez's 7 further supports their offensive control, which can translate into set-piece opportunities and pressure.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Santos Laguna0.4
Avg goals scored
FC Juarez0.6
Santos Laguna1.6
Avg goals conceded
FC Juarez3.8
Santos Laguna20%
BTTS rate
FC Juarez60%
Santos Laguna40%
Over 2.5 goals
FC Juarez80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 83% · edge -9 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Recent form data shows low scoring from Santos Laguna with only 0.4 goals per game and a 20% BTTS rate, while Juarez has a higher BTTS rate at 60% and an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate. However, Juarez's defensive frailty and Santos Laguna's cautious approach suggest a tight game with limited goals, supporting a bet focused on avoiding defeat rather than high scoring.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSantos Laguna Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +14.5 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Santos Laguna to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The Santos Laguna Draw No Bet market is priced attractively at 1.95, reflecting a 65.8% versus a 51.3% implied chance. This positive of 14.5% suggests the price underestimates Santos Laguna's ability to avoid defeat, supported by their stronger defensive stats and home form. The market is not price-sensitive, making this a confident selection based on both data and football context.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Santos Laguna

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 6L
07 Sep 2026A Cruz Azul0-1
30 Aug 2026H Tigres UANL0-0
23 Aug 2026A Puebla2-3
17 Aug 2026H Guadalajara Chivas0-1
03 Aug 2026A Club America0-3

FC Juarez

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 7L
05 Sep 2026H CF Pachuca0-2
31 Aug 2026A Toluca0-4
22 Aug 2026H Club America1-2
16 Aug 2026A Monterrey1-6
01 Aug 2026H U.N.A.M. - Pumas1-5
Market aligned with main pickSantos Laguna Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +14.5 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 83%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Santos Laguna to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Santos Laguna's recent form shows a slight improvement in defensive solidity, conceding fewer goals than Juarez, who have struggled with a high goals-against average of 3.8. Santos Laguna's ability to secure points recently, albeit limited, contrasts with Juarez's winless streak, reinforcing the likelihood of Santos Laguna avoiding defeat in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Santos Laguna wins
2Draws
5FC Juarez wins
18 Jan 2026Santos Laguna v FC Juarez2-2
23 Aug 2025FC Juarez v Santos Laguna2-1
30 Jan 2025FC Juarez v Santos Laguna1-0
07 Oct 2024Santos Laguna v FC Juarez0-2
01 Apr 2024FC Juarez v Santos Laguna2-1
30 Oct 2023Santos Laguna v FC Juarez5-1
Market aligned with main pickSantos Laguna to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 50% · edge +6.8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 2.7 goals per game, with no dominant trend favoring either side. Past meetings have been competitive and relatively balanced, providing only weak support for a clear winner. This background reinforces the prudence of a Draw No Bet approach, especially given the current form and defensive profiles.
Season team stats

Liga MX

Santos Laguna8
Played
FC Juarez8
Santos Laguna0.8
Avg goals for
FC Juarez0.5
Santos Laguna1.6
Avg goals against
FC Juarez2.9
Santos Laguna1
Clean sheets
FC Juarez0
Market aligned with main pickSantos Laguna Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +14.5 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Santos Laguna to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over the season, Santos Laguna's defense has been more robust than Juarez's, conceding significantly fewer goals. Their attack, while modest, generates more shots and corners, reflecting a more proactive approach. Juarez's defensive vulnerabilities and lower shot volume highlight their struggles, supporting the case for Santos Laguna to at least draw this match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
17Santos Laguna48116-7
18FC Juarez08008-19
Both teams sit near the bottom of the Liga MX table, with Santos Laguna just above Juarez. The tight competition for survival adds pressure, making cautious tactical setups likely. This context favors a conservative bet on Santos Laguna to avoid defeat, as both teams will prioritize not losing over risky attacking play.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Santos Laguna Over 2.5
80%FC Juarez Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating moderately open games. However, recent trends show a decline in goals and increased defensive caution, suggesting that Over 2.5 goals is less likely. The tempo and chance quality point towards a match where defensive organization will be key, aligning with the Draw No Bet selection favoring Santos Laguna.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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