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Samsunspor crestSamsunspor
v
Çorum FK crestÇorum FK

Süper Lig | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

Samsunspor v Çorum FK Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Samsunspor and Çorum FK meet in a Süper Lig clash where both sides have shown mixed defensive records early in the season. Samsunspor has scored 1.25 goals per game but conceded 1.5, while Çorum FK averages 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per match. Both teams have earned four points so far, reflecting a competitive but open contest. Çorum FK's higher rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals suggests an attacking approach that could challenge Samsunspor's defense, setting the stage for a potentially goal-rich encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Çorum FK has a 75% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring games.
  • Samsunspor concedes 1.5 goals per match, showing defensive vulnerabilities.
  • The last two head-to-head matches averaged 5 goals, highlighting goal potential.
  • Both teams average over 10 combined shots per game, supporting attacking intent.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 58.4% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, supported by Çorum FK's strong tendency for high-scoring games and Samsunspor's defensive concessions. The recent head-to-head average of 5 goals and combined shot volumes underline the likelihood of multiple goals. The price at 1.9 offers a small positive , making this a reasonable selection based on attacking patterns and defensive openness. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Probability58.4% chance Over 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Çorum FK Over 2.5 Rate75% matches Over 2.5
Strong positive
Samsunspor Goals Against1.5 per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Goals5 average goals in 2 matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both sides pushing forward, as Çorum FK's attacking style and Samsunspor's defensive lapses suggest multiple scoring opportunities. The data supports Over 2.5 Goals given recent scoring trends and shot volumes, making this a tactically and statistically sound pick.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal scoring potential

“Çorum FK's offensive threat combined with Samsunspor's defensive concessions creates a fertile ground for goals. The recent high-scoring head-to-head matches reinforce the likelihood of a lively encounter with multiple goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Çorum FK has a 75% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring games.

Samsunspor concedes 1.5 goals per match, showing defensive vulnerabilities.

The last two head-to-head matches averaged 5 goals, highlighting goal potential.

Both teams average over 10 combined shots per game, supporting attacking intent.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last two head-to-head matches between these teams averaged 5 goals, a strong indicator of goal-rich encounters.
  • This recent trend, combined with Çorum FK's high Over 2.5 rate this season, suggests a continuation of open, attacking play with multiple goals expected.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Samsunspor1.25
Avg goals scored
Çorum FK1.75
Samsunspor1.5
Avg goals conceded
Çorum FK2.25
Samsunspor25%
BTTS rate
Çorum FK50%
Samsunspor25%
Over 2.5 goals
Çorum FK75%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 53% · edge +5.8 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 46%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Both teams show tendencies toward open play and goal scoring, with Çorum FK's 75% Over 2.5 rate and Samsunspor conceding 1.5 goals per game. The last two meetings averaged 5 goals, reinforcing the expectation of goals from both sides and a lively attacking contest.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 53% · edge +5.8 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Çorum FK to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Samsunspor Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Çorum FK Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.9 with a of 58.4%, indicating a small positive . This suggests the fairly reflect the likelihood of multiple goals, making it a sensible bet without strong price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Samsunspor2.5
Avg corners for
Çorum FK5.5
Samsunspor9.5
Avg total corners
Çorum FK10.25
Samsunspor0.5
Avg yellow cards
Çorum FK1.25
Samsunspor13.25
Avg shots
Çorum FK13.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 58% · edge +8 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Samsunspor averages 3 corners per game while Çorum FK averages 4.67, indicating moderate attacking pressure. Çorum FK's higher yellow card average suggests a more aggressive style, potentially leading to set-piece opportunities and sustained pressure that can increase shot volume and goal chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Samsunspor

LLWD
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
06 Sep 2026A Kocaelispor0-1
30 Aug 2026H Fenerbahçe0-2
22 Aug 2026A Rizespor2-0
17 Aug 2026H Göztepe3-3

Çorum FK

WLLD
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
06 Sep 2026H Eyüpspor3-0
31 Aug 2026A Beşiktaş2-6
22 Aug 2026H Kasımpaşa0-1
14 Aug 2026A Galatasaray2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Çorum FK to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Samsunspor Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Çorum FK Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Samsunspor to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
Recent form shows both teams earning 4 points with Samsunspor scoring 1.25 goals and Çorum FK 1.75 per game. Çorum FK's 75% Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Samsunspor's 25%, suggesting Çorum FK's matches are more open and higher scoring, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Samsunspor wins
0Draws
1Çorum FK wins
26 Mar 2024Samsunspor v Çorum FK6-1
08 Dec 2019Çorum FK v Samsunspor2-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 53% · edge +5.8 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Çorum FK to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Samsunspor to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
The two previous meetings between Samsunspor and Çorum FK have produced an average of 5 goals per game, strongly supporting the likelihood of a high-scoring match. This head-to-head history aligns well with current attacking and defensive trends for both teams.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Süper Lig

Samsunspor4
Played
Çorum FK4
Samsunspor1.3
Avg goals for
Çorum FK1.8
Samsunspor1.5
Avg goals against
Çorum FK2.3
Samsunspor1
Clean sheets
Çorum FK1
Best odds for this sectionÇorum FK to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 29% · edge +12.4 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Samsunspor Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Çorum FK Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Samsunspor to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
Season-long stats reveal Samsunspor concedes 1.5 goals per game, while Çorum FK concedes 2.25, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Çorum FK's higher scoring and Over 2.5 rate (75%) underline their attacking emphasis, making multiple goals likely in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
13Samsunspor44112-1
14Çorum FK44112-2
Both teams sit mid-lower in the Süper Lig table with 4 points each, indicating a need for positive results. This mutual incentive to attack and secure points may lead to an open game with goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Samsunspor Over 2.5
75%Çorum FK Over 2.5
5H2H avg goals
The last two head-to-head matches between these teams averaged 5 goals, a strong indicator of goal-rich encounters. This recent trend, combined with Çorum FK's high Over 2.5 rate this season, suggests a continuation of open, attacking play with multiple goals expected.

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Fixture links

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