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Beşiktaş crestBeşiktaş
v
Erzurumspor FK crestErzurumspor FK

Süper Lig | Fri 11 Sep, 18:00

Beşiktaş v Erzurumspor FK Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Beşiktaş hosts Erzurumspor FK in a Süper Lig clash where the home side has started strongly with 9 points and a solid attacking output, while Erzurumspor FK has struggled, collecting only 4 points and scoring less frequently. Beşiktaş's offensive firepower contrasts with Erzurumspor FK's defensive vulnerabilities, but the away team’s resilience and tactical discipline suggest a competitive encounter. Erzurumspor FK will aim to frustrate and capitalize on counterattacks, making the match an intriguing test of contrasting styles and current form trajectories.

BT4Y best bet

Erzurumspor FK Draw No Bet

  • Erzurumspor FK offers strong value at 5.75 with a 42% versus 17.4% implied chance.
  • Beşiktaş averages 16.25 shots per game compared to Erzurumspor FK's 9.5, showing offensive control.
  • Erzurumspor FK has a lower BTTS rate (25%) than Beşiktaş (50%), indicating tighter defense or less scoring frequency.
  • Head-to-head matches average 4.33 goals, suggesting potential for open play and scoring chances.
  • Beşiktaş ranks 2nd in the league, Erzurumspor FK 15th, reflecting differing season trajectories but competitive spirit.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Erzurumspor FK Draw No Bet as a strong value pick due to the significant discrepancy between the model's 42% chance and the market's 17.4% implied probability, reflecting an undervaluation of Erzurumspor FK's resilience. Despite Beşiktaş's superior offensive stats and league position, Erzurumspor FK's defensive solidity and ability to avoid defeat in challenging away fixtures underpin the . The data quality is robust, and the price offers a compelling edge without requiring caution on sensitivity.

Model Chance42%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance17.4%
Strong positive
Value Edge+24.6%
Strong positive
Confidence Level70
Positive
Data QualityComplete data for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Erzurumspor FK Draw No Bet is a tactically sound choice given Erzurumspor FK's ability to absorb pressure and avoid defeat against a high-scoring Beşiktaş side. The data supports this with Erzurumspor FK's defensive metrics and the value in the , making it a balanced pick combining football reasoning and statistical insight.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Market value and defensive tactics

“Erzurumspor FK's defensive resilience and the significant value in the Draw No Bet market make this an attractive selection despite Beşiktaş's attacking threat.”

Key Data Signals

Erzurumspor FK Draw No Bet evidence

Erzurumspor FK offers strong value at 5.75 with a 42% versus 17.4% implied chance.

Beşiktaş averages 16.25 shots per game compared to Erzurumspor FK's 9.5, showing offensive control.

Erzurumspor FK has a lower BTTS rate (25%) than Beşiktaş (50%), indicating tighter defense or less scoring frequency.

Head-to-head matches average 4.33 goals, suggesting potential for open play and scoring chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Erzurumspor FK Draw No Bet notes

  • Recent head-to-head matches average 4.33 goals, indicating a history of open, high-scoring games.
  • Both teams have a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, suggesting the potential for goals through pace and transitions.
  • Erzurumspor FK's defensive approach may temper this, but the trend supports a lively match with scoring chances for both sides.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Beşiktaş7.5
Avg corners for
Erzurumspor FK3.75
Beşiktaş11.75
Avg total corners
Erzurumspor FK6.75
Beşiktaş1.75
Avg yellow cards
Erzurumspor FK1.25
Beşiktaş16.25
Avg shots
Erzurumspor FK9.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 50% · edge +1.9 pts
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Beşiktaş dominates in shots (16.25 avg) and corners (7.5 avg) compared to Erzurumspor FK's 9.5 shots and 3.75 corners, indicating territorial and attacking pressure. Card averages are moderate, with Beşiktaş at 1.75 yellows and Erzurumspor FK at 1.25, reflecting disciplined play. Erzurumspor FK's lower shot volume suggests a counter-attacking or defensive posture.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Beşiktaş2.25
Avg goals scored
Erzurumspor FK0.5
Beşiktaş1
Avg goals conceded
Erzurumspor FK2
Beşiktaş50%
BTTS rate
Erzurumspor FK25%
Beşiktaş50%
Over 2.5 goals
Erzurumspor FK50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.8 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Both teams have a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate, but Erzurumspor FK's BTTS rate is only 25%, suggesting they often keep clean sheets or matches with fewer goals. The high average goals in head-to-head matches (4.33) point to potential open play, but Erzurumspor FK's defensive focus may limit scoring opportunities, balancing the goal expectations.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickErzurumspor FK Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Erzurumspor FK to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The market heavily undervalues Erzurumspor FK's chance to avoid defeat, pricing Draw No Bet at 5.75 with an implied chance of 17.4%, while the model estimates a 42% probability. This large indicates a price-sensitive opportunity worth standard staking, reflecting market caution about Erzurumspor FK's prospects despite their defensive capabilities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Beşiktaş

WWLW
Last 53W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 1L
05 Sep 2026A Fenerbahçe2-1
31 Aug 2026H Çorum FK6-2
23 Aug 2026A Alanyaspor0-1
16 Aug 2026H Eyüpspor1-0

Erzurumspor FK

WDLL
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
05 Sep 2026H Konyaspor1-0
28 Aug 2026A Gençlerbirliği S.K.1-1
21 Aug 2026H Galatasaray0-4
16 Aug 2026A Amed0-3
Market aligned with main pickErzurumspor FK Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Erzurumspor FK to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
Beşiktaş has collected 9 points with a 2.25 goals per game average, showing strong recent form and offensive efficiency. Erzurumspor FK's 4 points and 0.5 goals per game reflect struggles in attack but a defense that concedes 2 goals per game, indicating vulnerability but also resilience in tight matches. This contrast supports the Draw No Bet angle for Erzurumspor FK as a cautious but value-driven pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Beşiktaş wins
1Draws
2Erzurumspor FK wins
11 Apr 2021Erzurumspor FK v Beşiktaş2-4
20 Dec 2020Beşiktaş v Erzurumspor FK4-0
22 Jan 2020Beşiktaş v Erzurumspor FK2-3
15 Jan 2020Erzurumspor FK v Beşiktaş3-2
25 Jan 2019Beşiktaş v Erzurumspor FK1-1
19 Aug 2018Erzurumspor FK v Beşiktaş1-3
Market aligned with main pickErzurumspor FK to WinBetfred guide price · Model 23% vs implied 9% · edge +13.9 pts
11
Check odds @ 11
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The six previous meetings between Beşiktaş and Erzurumspor FK have featured an average of 4.33 goals, highlighting historically open contests. While Beşiktaş has generally dominated, Erzurumspor FK's ability to contribute to high-scoring games suggests they can challenge defensively and offensively, lending moderate support to the Draw No Bet selection.
Season team stats

Süper Lig

Beşiktaş4
Played
Erzurumspor FK4
Beşiktaş2.3
Avg goals for
Erzurumspor FK0.5
Beşiktaş1
Avg goals against
Erzurumspor FK2
Beşiktaş1
Clean sheets
Erzurumspor FK1
Market aligned with main pickErzurumspor FK Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Load more odds for this section
Erzurumspor FK to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
Beşiktaş ranks 2nd with a potent attack averaging 2.25 goals per game and a solid defense conceding 1 goal per game. Erzurumspor FK sits 15th, scoring less than 1 goal per game and conceding twice as many, highlighting their defensive challenges. However, Erzurumspor FK's ability to keep matches close despite these stats underpins the Draw No Bet value.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Beşiktaş943015
15Erzurumspor FK44112-6
The standings reflect Beşiktaş's status as title contenders and Erzurumspor FK's fight to climb from the relegation zone. While Beşiktaş's position suggests control, Erzurumspor FK's motivation to secure points and avoid defeat in tough away fixtures adds competitive tension, justifying the cautious Draw No Bet approach.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Beşiktaş Over 2.5
50%Erzurumspor FK Over 2.5
4.33H2H avg goals
Recent head-to-head matches average 4.33 goals, indicating a history of open, high-scoring games. Both teams have a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, suggesting the potential for goals through pace and transitions. Erzurumspor FK's defensive approach may temper this, but the trend supports a lively match with scoring chances for both sides.

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