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RB Bragantino crestRB Bragantino
v
Gremio crestGremio

Serie A | Sun 23 Aug, 20:00

RB Bragantino v Gremio Stats

Data last updated: Sat 22 Aug 2026, 07:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

RB Bragantino and Gremio meet in a Serie A clash where both sides show contrasting recent form and tactical approaches. RB Bragantino, positioned 7th, have a solid defensive record with just one goal conceded in recent matches, while Gremio, 15th, have struggled defensively but maintain an aggressive attacking style. Both teams tend to generate set-piece opportunities through sustained pressure and wide play, setting the stage for a contest likely to feature numerous corners. The match's timing and stakes suggest a competitive encounter with tactical battles on the flanks influencing the corner count.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • RB Bragantino average 5.2 corners per game, Gremio average 6, combining for over 11 corners on average
  • Recent matches show RB Bragantino and Gremio produce high corner counts, supporting Over 9.5 Corners
  • Both teams create chances from wide areas, leading to frequent corner kicks
  • Model estimates a 69% chance for Over 9.5 Corners, with a positive of 14.4%
  • Strong shot volume and attacking intent from key players increase corner likelihood

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a strong value bet with a 69% chance of occurrence, well above the implied market chance of 54.6%. Both RB Bragantino and Gremio average over 5 corners per game, reflecting their attacking styles that emphasize wing play and crossing. The teams' recent form and shot volumes suggest sustained pressure and frequent set-piece situations. This corner count is supported by solid (85) and a significant (14.4%), making it a compelling pick for this fixture.

Model Chance69%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance54.6%
Neutral
Value Edge14.4%
Strong positive
Confidence Level85
Strong positive
Average Corners per GameRB Bragantino 5.2, Gremio 6
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a dynamic match with both RB Bragantino and Gremio pushing wide and creating set-piece chances. The solid corner averages and attacking intent from both sides make Over 9.5 Corners a sensible choice. Tactical emphasis on wing play and sustained pressure should generate the necessary corner volume for this bet to succeed.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corner market analysis

“This fixture’s tactical setup and recent corner trends strongly favor a high corner count. Both teams rely on wide attacks and crossing, which naturally leads to more corners. The model’s and reinforce this as a smart corner market selection.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

RB Bragantino average 5.2 corners per game, Gremio average 6, combining for over 11 corners on average

Recent matches show RB Bragantino and Gremio produce high corner counts, supporting Over 9.5 Corners

Both teams create chances from wide areas, leading to frequent corner kicks

Model estimates a 69% chance for Over 9.5 Corners, with a positive of 14.4%

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last ten meetings, average goals per game stand at 2.4, indicating open play and attacking intent.
  • While this panel focuses on goals, the tempo and attacking transitions in these matches often correlate with increased corner opportunities, supporting the Over 9.5 Corners angle.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

RB Bragantino1
Avg goals scored
Gremio1
RB Bragantino1
Avg goals conceded
Gremio2
RB Bragantino60%
BTTS rate
Gremio80%
RB Bragantino20%
Over 2.5 goals
Gremio80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams have modest recent goal returns but high BTTS rates, with Gremio particularly prone to open games. This attacking openness often leads to more attacking phases and set pieces, indirectly supporting a higher corner count through increased offensive pressure and crossing attempts.

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more Serie A analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
RB Bragantino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
RB Bragantino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced attractively with reflecting a 54.6% implied chance, while the model estimates a 69% probability. This significant of 14.4% indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of a high corner count, making it a positive value bet without price warnings.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

RB Bragantino5.2
Avg corners for
Gremio6
RB Bragantino9.8
Avg total corners
Gremio12
RB Bragantino2.2
Avg yellow cards
Gremio3
RB Bragantino14
Avg shots
Gremio10.4
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 55% · edge +14.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
RB Bragantino and Gremio both average over 5 corners per game, supported by high shot volumes (14 and 10.4 respectively). Their aggressive wide play and frequent fouling in attacking zones contribute to sustained pressure and set-piece opportunities, driving corner counts upward.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

RB Bragantino

DLDDW
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
15 Aug 2026A Atletico Paranaense1-1
09 Aug 2026H Corinthians0-2
26 Jul 2026H Coritiba0-0
18 Jul 2026A Fluminense1-1
31 May 2026H Internacional3-1

Gremio

LWDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
16 Aug 2026A Atletico-MG0-3
08 Aug 2026H Sao Paulo2-1
26 Jul 2026H Fluminense1-1
18 Jul 2026A Mirassol1-2
30 May 2026H Corinthians1-3
Best odds for this sectionRB Bragantino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
RB Bragantino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
5
Check odds @ 5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Gremio Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Recent form shows RB Bragantino and Gremio producing matches with frequent corners, consistent with their average corner stats. RB Bragantino’s defensive solidity contrasts with Gremio’s more open style, creating a balance that sustains corner opportunities throughout the match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5RB Bragantino wins
4Draws
1Gremio wins
13 Mar 2026Gremio v RB Bragantino1-1
04 Oct 2025RB Bragantino v Gremio1-0
10 May 2025Gremio v RB Bragantino1-1
15 Sep 2024RB Bragantino v Gremio2-2
01 Jun 2024Gremio v RB Bragantino0-2
15 Sep 2023RB Bragantino v Gremio2-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
RB Bragantino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows moderately open games with an average of 2.4 goals, suggesting both teams engage in attacking play that can produce set pieces. While not corner-specific, this attacking openness lends indirect support to a higher corner count in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Serie A

RB Bragantino22
Played
Gremio22
RB Bragantino1.2
Avg goals for
Gremio1.1
RB Bragantino1
Avg goals against
Gremio1.4
RB Bragantino7
Clean sheets
Gremio5
Best odds for this sectionRB Bragantino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
RB Bragantino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
5
Check odds @ 5
Gremio Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Season-long data confirms both teams maintain corner averages above 5 per game, reflecting tactical patterns favoring wing play and crossing. This steady corner generation supports the likelihood of exceeding 9.5 corners in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8RB Bragantino32229584
15Gremio2522679-6
RB Bragantino’s higher league position and points tally suggest a more controlled approach, but Gremio’s lower rank and need for points may encourage attacking urgency. This dynamic can increase attacking duels and set-piece situations, positively influencing corner counts.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%RB Bragantino Over 2.5
80%Gremio Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, average goals per game stand at 2.4, indicating open play and attacking intent. While this panel focuses on goals, the tempo and attacking transitions in these matches often correlate with increased corner opportunities, supporting the Over 9.5 Corners angle.

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