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Zaglebie Lubin crestZaglebie Lubin

Ekstraklasa | Tue 15 Sep, 17:00

Raków Częstochowa v Zaglebie Lubin Stats

Data last updated: Sat 08 Aug 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ekstraklasa fixture features Raków Częstochowa struggling near the bottom of the table with just 3 points from 7 matches, while Zaglebie Lubin sits comfortably in 7th place with 12 points. Lubin's solid defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game, contrasts with Raków's defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 2.2 goals per match. Lubin's recent form is strong, having collected 9 points recently, and their tactical discipline and efficiency on the road make them a confident contender to secure victory in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Zaglebie Lubin to Win

  • Zaglebie Lubin holds a 70% to win with positive value at 4.2 .
  • Lubin concedes just 0.6 goals per game, showcasing defensive solidity.
  • Raków Częstochowa has a poor defensive record, conceding 2.2 goals per match.
  • Lubin has earned 9 points recently compared to Raków's 3, indicating better form.
  • Lubin's attackers, including M. Szabó, show consistent goal threat and shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Zaglebie Lubin to win due to their superior recent form and defensive stability, conceding only 0.6 goals per game compared to Raków's 2.2. Lubin's attackers maintain a steady threat with solid shot and goal rates, while Raków's defensive frailties and low points tally weaken their case. The 4.2 offer strong value given the 70% , making Lubin's win a compelling selection despite playing away. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent FormLubin 9 points vs Raków 3 points
Strong positive
Defensive RecordLubin concedes 0.6 goals/game, Raków 2.2
Strong positive
Attacking ThreatLubin attackers show consistent shots and goals
Positive
Odds Value4.2 odds imply 23.8% chance vs model 70%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Zaglebie Lubin's defensive resilience and superior recent form provide a strong foundation for an away win. Their attackers' consistent threat combined with Raków's defensive struggles makes Lubin the more likely victor in this Ekstraklasa clash.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Lubin's disciplined defense and efficient attack create a clear tactical edge over a struggling Raków side, making their win a well-supported outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Zaglebie Lubin to Win evidence

Zaglebie Lubin holds a 70% to win with positive value at 4.2 .

Lubin concedes just 0.6 goals per game, showcasing defensive solidity.

Raków Częstochowa has a poor defensive record, conceding 2.2 goals per match.

Lubin has earned 9 points recently compared to Raków's 3, indicating better form.

What To Watch In The Data

Zaglebie Lubin to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, suggesting a moderately open game.
  • Raków's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Lubin's more conservative 40%, indicating the potential for a balanced match with moments of attacking intensity from Raków.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Raków Częstochowa4.8
Avg corners for
Zaglebie Lubin4.2
Raków Częstochowa10.6
Avg total corners
Zaglebie Lubin9.6
Raków Częstochowa1.6
Avg yellow cards
Zaglebie Lubin2.6
Raków Częstochowa12.6
Avg shots
Zaglebie Lubin14
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 58% · edge +6.6 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams generate similar corner counts (Raków 4.8, Lubin 4.2) and shots (Lubin averages 14 shots with 4.4 on target). Lubin's higher yellow card average (2.6 vs 1.6) indicates a more physical approach, which may disrupt Raków's rhythm and limit their attacking chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Raków Częstochowa1.2
Avg goals scored
Zaglebie Lubin1
Raków Częstochowa2.2
Avg goals conceded
Zaglebie Lubin0.6
Raków Częstochowa80%
BTTS rate
Zaglebie Lubin60%
Raków Częstochowa80%
Over 2.5 goals
Zaglebie Lubin40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 79%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2
Check odds @ 2
Raków's matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals and 80% BTTS, indicating open games with defensive lapses. Lubin's games show lower over 2.5 (40%) and BTTS (60%) rates, reflecting a more controlled style. This contrast suggests a tactical battle between Lubin's defense and Raków's attacking openness.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickZaglebie Lubin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Zaglebie Lubin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 4.2 for Zaglebie Lubin to win represent significant value compared to the model's 70% win probability. This price sensitivity suggests a strong betting angle, as the market underestimates Lubin's chances given their form and defensive strength.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Raków Częstochowa

WLLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 6L
11 Sep 2026H Motor Lublin2-1
06 Sep 2026A Lech Poznan0-1
03 Sep 2026H Gornik Zabrze1-2
30 Aug 2026H Jagiellonia2-5
16 Aug 2026A Cracovia Krakow1-2

Zaglebie Lubin

WDDDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 1L
12 Sep 2026H GKS Katowice2-1
07 Sep 2026A Wieczysta Kraków1-1
29 Aug 2026H Pogon Szczecin0-0
23 Aug 2026A Radomiak Radom0-0
15 Aug 2026H Slask Wroclaw2-1
Market aligned with main pickZaglebie Lubin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Zaglebie Lubin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Zaglebie Lubin's recent form is markedly better, securing 9 points compared to Raków's 3. Lubin's ability to limit goals conceded to 0.6 per game underpins their momentum, while Raków's defensive frailty and low scoring output hinder their chances of turning form around quickly.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Raków Częstochowa wins
2Draws
3Zaglebie Lubin wins
14 Feb 2026Zaglebie Lubin v Raków Częstochowa0-0
14 Dec 2025Raków Częstochowa v Zaglebie Lubin0-1
31 Mar 2025Zaglebie Lubin v Raków Częstochowa0-2
22 Sep 2024Raków Częstochowa v Zaglebie Lubin5-1
04 May 2024Zaglebie Lubin v Raków Częstochowa2-0
05 Nov 2023Raków Częstochowa v Zaglebie Lubin5-0
Market aligned with main pickZaglebie Lubin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 10 previous meetings between these teams have averaged 2.6 goals per game, showing a history of moderately high-scoring encounters. While this supports the possibility of goals, Lubin's current defensive form may limit Raków's scoring opportunities, making the head-to-head a balanced but slightly favorable context for Lubin.
Season team stats

Ekstraklasa

Raków Częstochowa7
Played
Zaglebie Lubin7
Raków Częstochowa1.1
Avg goals for
Zaglebie Lubin1.1
Raków Częstochowa2.1
Avg goals against
Zaglebie Lubin0.9
Raków Częstochowa0
Clean sheets
Zaglebie Lubin3
Market aligned with main pickZaglebie Lubin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Load more odds for this section
Zaglebie Lubin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over the season, Lubin's defensive record stands out with just 0.6 goals conceded per game, supporting their ability to control matches. Raków's higher goals conceded (2.2) and over 2.5 goals rate (80%) reflect defensive instability, reinforcing Lubin's advantage in this matchup.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Zaglebie Lubin1273312
18Raków Częstochowa37106-7
Lubin's 7th place and 12 points contrast sharply with Raków's last place and 3 points, indicating a significant gulf in league performance. This standing disparity reflects Lubin's consistency and ability to secure results, adding pressure on Raków to improve quickly.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Raków Częstochowa Over 2.5
40%Zaglebie Lubin Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, suggesting a moderately open game. Raków's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Lubin's more conservative 40%, indicating the potential for a balanced match with moments of attacking intensity from Raków.

Related football research

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