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Raków Częstochowa crestRaków Częstochowa
v
Gornik Zabrze crestGornik Zabrze

Ekstraklasa | Thu 03 Sep, 17:00

Raków Częstochowa v Gornik Zabrze Stats

Data last updated: Wed 23 Sep 2026, 04:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Raków Częstochowa face Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa on Thu 03 Sep, 17:00. Rakow have conceded 11 goals in four league matches this season, an average of 2.75 per game, despite scoring five themselves.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2

  • At 1.8, Over 2 implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 71%.
  • Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Raków Częstochowa and 100% for Gornik Zabrze, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Gornik Zabrze are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.25 goals per match, with Raków Częstochowa at 1.25.
  • BTTS rates of 100% for Raków Częstochowa and 100% for Gornik Zabrze show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 71% for Over 2 sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Raków Częstochowa and 100% for Gornik Zabrze, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

Model chance vs price71% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Raków Częstochowa.Visible data support
Positive
Gornik Zabrze are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because selection: Over 2.5 Goals. The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Raków Częstochowa and 100% for Gornik Zabrze, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2 evidence

Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Raków Częstochowa and 100% for Gornik Zabrze, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Gornik Zabrze are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.25 goals per match, with Raków Częstochowa at 1.25.

BTTS rates of 100% for Raków Częstochowa and 100% for Gornik Zabrze show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2 notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Raków Częstochowa1.25
Avg goals scored
Gornik Zabrze2.25
Raków Częstochowa2.75
Avg goals conceded
Gornik Zabrze1.5
Raków Częstochowa100%
BTTS rate
Gornik Zabrze100%
Raków Częstochowa100%
Over 2.5 goals
Gornik Zabrze100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2
Check odds @ 2
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Gornik Zabrze Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Gornik Zabrze to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Raków Częstochowa Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Raków Częstochowa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Raków Częstochowa v Gornik Zabrze predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Raków Częstochowa5
Avg corners for
Gornik Zabrze7.5
Raków Częstochowa9.75
Avg total corners
Gornik Zabrze11.25
Raków Częstochowa1.25
Avg yellow cards
Gornik Zabrze2.25
Raków Częstochowa15.5
Avg shots
Gornik Zabrze15.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 55% · edge +13.7 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Raków Częstochowa

LLLL
Last 50W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 4L
30 Aug 2026H Jagiellonia2-5
16 Aug 2026A Cracovia Krakow1-2
02 Aug 2026A Slask Wroclaw1-2
26 Jul 2026H Wisla Plock1-2

Gornik Zabrze

LWWW
Last 53W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 1L
30 Aug 2026H GKS Katowice2-3
16 Aug 2026H Wisla Krakow2-1
08 Aug 2026A Radomiak Radom3-1
25 Jul 2026H Slask Wroclaw2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Gornik Zabrze Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Gornik Zabrze to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Raków Częstochowa Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Raków Częstochowa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Raków Częstochowa wins
1Draws
6Gornik Zabrze wins
02 May 2026Gornik Zabrze v Raków Częstochowa2-0
15 Mar 2026Gornik Zabrze v Raków Częstochowa3-1
15 Sep 2025Raków Częstochowa v Gornik Zabrze0-1
21 Feb 2025Raków Częstochowa v Gornik Zabrze1-0
18 Aug 2024Gornik Zabrze v Raków Częstochowa0-0
19 Apr 2024Raków Częstochowa v Gornik Zabrze0-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Gornik Zabrze to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Raków Częstochowa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Ekstraklasa

Raków Częstochowa9
Played
Gornik Zabrze9
Raków Częstochowa1.3
Avg goals for
Gornik Zabrze1.8
Raków Częstochowa2.3
Avg goals against
Gornik Zabrze0.9
Raków Częstochowa0
Clean sheets
Gornik Zabrze3
Best odds for this sectionGornik Zabrze Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
Gornik Zabrze to WinBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Raków Częstochowa Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Raków Częstochowa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Season data supports Gornik Zabrze Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Gornik Zabrze2297118
18Raków Częstochowa39108-9
Raków Częstochowa sit in position 18, while Gornik Zabrze sit in position 1, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2 assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Raków Częstochowa Over 2.5
100%Gornik Zabrze Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Raków Częstochowa sit at 100% and Gornik Zabrze sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Raków Częstochowa v Gornik Zabrze prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

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Competition and hubs

Raków Częstochowa v Gornik Zabrze predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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