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Queen of the South crestQueen of the South
v
East Fife crestEast Fife

League One | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

Queen of the South v East Fife Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

East Fife approach this League One clash with momentum, sitting fifth in the standings with seven points from recent matches, while Queen of the South occupy ninth place with three points. East Fife's defensive solidity, conceding just 0.8 goals per game, contrasts with Queen of the South's leaky backline allowing 2.2 goals on average. This defensive edge combined with East Fife's slightly better attacking output and recent form suggests a tactical advantage heading into this fixture, where East Fife will look to capitalize on their consistency and maintain their push up the table.

BT4Y best bet

East Fife to Win

  • East Fife have a 62.2% to win, showing strong statistical backing.
  • Queen of the South concede an average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • East Fife have conceded only 0.8 goals per game, highlighting defensive strength.
  • Recent form favors East Fife with 6 points compared to Queen of the South's 3 points.
  • The head-to-head average goals of 3.2 suggest a potentially open game with scoring opportunities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors East Fife to win due to their superior defensive record and recent form, which provide a solid foundation for success. Queen of the South's higher goals conceded per game and lower points tally indicate vulnerabilities that East Fife can exploit. The 20.2% and positive price context reinforce this pick as a strong statistical choice without price sensitivity. The data quality is robust, supporting in this selection.

Model Chance62.2%
Strong positive
Defensive RecordEast Fife concede 0.8 goals per game vs Queen of the South's 2.2
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsEast Fife 6 vs Queen of the South 3
Positive
Value Edge20.2%
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model42% vs 62.2%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

East Fife's consistent defensive performance and better recent form make them the logical choice to secure victory in this League One fixture. Their ability to limit goals conceded while maintaining steady attacking output contrasts with Queen of the South's defensive struggles, suggesting East Fife can control the game and claim the three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“East Fife's defensive discipline and recent momentum position them well to capitalize on Queen of the South's defensive weaknesses, making their win a compelling prospect.”

Key Data Signals

East Fife to Win evidence

East Fife have a 62.2% to win, showing strong statistical backing.

Queen of the South concede an average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.

East Fife have conceded only 0.8 goals per game, highlighting defensive strength.

Recent form favors East Fife with 6 points compared to Queen of the South's 3 points.

What To Watch In The Data

East Fife to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, the Over 2.5 Goals trend is mixed, with Queen of the South showing a 60% rate and East Fife 40%.
  • The head-to-head average of 3.2 goals supports the possibility of a moderately high-scoring game, driven by Queen of the South's defensive vulnerabilities and East Fife's balanced attack, suggesting a dynamic tempo with goal-scoring chances for both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Queen of the South0.8
Avg goals scored
East Fife1
Queen of the South2.2
Avg goals conceded
East Fife0.8
Queen of the South60%
BTTS rate
East Fife40%
Queen of the South60%
Over 2.5 goals
East Fife40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The fixture's recent head-to-head average of 3.2 goals suggests an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides. Queen of the South's 60% over 2.5 goals rate and BTTS rate indicate a tendency for matches with goals at both ends, while East Fife's more conservative 40% rates reflect a balanced approach. This mix points to a contest where goals are likely but not guaranteed from both teams.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Queen of the South

WLLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 4L
05 Sep 2026H Airdrie United2-1
29 Aug 2026A Montrose1-2
22 Aug 2026H Alloa Athletic0-2
08 Aug 2026H Peterhead0-1
01 Aug 2026A East Kilbride1-5

East Fife

DDDLW
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 1L
05 Sep 2026H Ross County2-2
29 Aug 2026A Airdrie United0-0
22 Aug 2026H Hamilton Academical0-0
15 Aug 2026A Peterhead1-2
08 Aug 2026H Cove Rangers2-0
Market aligned with main pickEast Fife to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
East Fife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
East Fife's recent form shows six points gained with a solid defensive record, conceding only 0.8 goals per game, which contrasts with Queen of the South's three points and 2.2 goals conceded per game. This form disparity highlights East Fife's momentum and defensive stability as key factors favoring their chances to secure a win in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5East Fife761411
9Queen of the South35104-7
East Fife's position in fifth place with seven points reflects a competitive start to the League One season, whereas Queen of the South's ninth place and three points indicate early struggles. The standings suggest East Fife have more at stake to maintain their upward trajectory, adding tactical urgency and to their approach in this match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickEast Fife to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
East Fife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The East Fife to Win market is priced attractively at 2.38 with a of 62.2%, indicating strong value. The implied chance of 42% is significantly lower than the model's estimate, suggesting the market underestimates East Fife's likelihood of victory. This price-value gap makes the selection a positive-value bet without requiring caution for price sensitivity.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Queen of the South wins
2Draws
1East Fife wins
21 Mar 2026Queen of the South v East Fife2-2
24 Jan 2026East Fife v Queen of the South1-5
08 Nov 2025Queen of the South v East Fife3-0
13 Sep 2025East Fife v Queen of the South2-1
25 Jul 2023Queen of the South v East Fife0-0
Market aligned with main pickEast Fife to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
The five previous meetings between these teams have averaged 3.2 goals per game, indicating open encounters with scoring opportunities. While this supports the potential for goals, it only weakly supports East Fife's outright win, as historical results have varied. Current form and defensive records provide stronger indicators for this fixture's outcome.
Season team stats

League One

Queen of the South5
Played
East Fife6
Queen of the South0.8
Avg goals for
East Fife0.8
Queen of the South2.2
Avg goals against
East Fife0.7
Queen of the South0
Clean sheets
East Fife4
Market aligned with main pickEast Fife to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
East Fife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Season-long statistics reveal East Fife's strong defensive profile, conceding fewer goals and maintaining a more consistent points accumulation than Queen of the South. Their ability to limit opposition scoring opportunities underpins their model-favored win, while Queen of the South's higher goals conceded per game signals defensive frailty that could be exploited.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Queen of the South Over 2.5
40%East Fife Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, the Over 2.5 Goals trend is mixed, with Queen of the South showing a 60% rate and East Fife 40%. The head-to-head average of 3.2 goals supports the possibility of a moderately high-scoring game, driven by Queen of the South's defensive vulnerabilities and East Fife's balanced attack, suggesting a dynamic tempo with goal-scoring chances for both sides.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.