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Airdrie United crestAirdrie United
v
Alloa Athletic crestAlloa Athletic

League One | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

Airdrie United v Alloa Athletic Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This League One clash features Alloa Athletic visiting Airdrie United, with Alloa currently third in the table and showing stronger recent form. Alloa have accumulated 8 points with a solid defensive record, conceding just 0.6 goals per game, while Airdrie United have struggled offensively and defensively, earning only 2 points and conceding 2 goals per match. The tactical setup suggests Alloa's disciplined defense and more efficient attack could dominate, making them favorites despite the away venue. The match carries importance for both sides aiming to climb the standings, adding competitive intensity to the fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Alloa Athletic to Win

  • Alloa Athletic sit 3rd in League One with 9 points, showing consistent form.
  • Airdrie United have scored only 0.6 goals per game, struggling offensively.
  • Alloa concede just 0.6 goals per match, highlighting defensive solidity.
  • Recent form favors Alloa with 8 points versus Airdrie's 2 points.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.6, indicating moderate scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Alloa Athletic to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive strength. The of 2.75 offer positive value given the implied chance of 36.4%. Alloa's ability to limit goals conceded and maintain consistent point accumulation contrasts with Airdrie United's struggles in attack and defense. This combination creates a compelling case for backing Alloa's victory, supported by solid data and tactical context. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance70%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance36.4%
Strong positive
Value Edge33.6%
Strong positive
Recent FormAlloa 8 points vs Airdrie 2 points
Strong positive
Defensive RecordAlloa concede 0.6 goals per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Alloa Athletic's superior defensive record and recent form make them the clear tactical and statistical favorite to win this match. Their ability to limit goals against and convert chances efficiently contrasts with Airdrie United's offensive struggles, suggesting Alloa will control key phases and secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Alloa Athletic's disciplined defensive approach and consistent point haul position them well to exploit Airdrie United's attacking weaknesses in this League One encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Alloa Athletic to Win evidence

Alloa Athletic sit 3rd in League One with 9 points, showing consistent form.

Airdrie United have scored only 0.6 goals per game, struggling offensively.

Alloa concede just 0.6 goals per match, highlighting defensive solidity.

Recent form favors Alloa with 8 points versus Airdrie's 2 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Alloa Athletic to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, an average of 2.6 goals per game has been recorded, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo.
  • Airdrie United's higher over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Alloa Athletic's defensive caution, indicating this match may feature controlled attacking phases with potential for key moments rather than open high-scoring play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Airdrie United0.6
Avg goals scored
Alloa Athletic1.4
Airdrie United2
Avg goals conceded
Alloa Athletic0.6
Airdrie United60%
BTTS rate
Alloa Athletic40%
Airdrie United60%
Over 2.5 goals
Alloa Athletic20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Goal trends show Airdrie United have a 60% rate of matches over 2.5 goals and BTTS at 60%, indicating openness in their games. Conversely, Alloa Athletic's matches have a lower over 2.5 goals rate at 20% and BTTS at 40%, reflecting tighter defensive play. The average 2.6 goals in head-to-head meetings suggests a moderate scoring environment with potential for a controlled Alloa win.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAlloa Athletic to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Alloa Athletic Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The current of 2.75 for Alloa Athletic to win represent strong value given the model's 70% win probability. This discrepancy indicates the market underestimates Alloa's chances, likely due to the away venue factor. The price is attractive for standard stakes and would become even more compelling if drift higher.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Airdrie United

LDLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 3L
05 Sep 2026A Queen of the South1-2
29 Aug 2026H East Fife0-0
22 Aug 2026H Ross County1-3
15 Aug 2026A Hamilton Academical0-4
08 Aug 2026H East Kilbride1-1

Alloa Athletic

DDWWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 1L
05 Sep 2026A Cove Rangers1-1
29 Aug 2026H Peterhead1-1
22 Aug 2026A Queen of the South2-0
15 Aug 2026H Montrose3-0
08 Aug 2026A Hamilton Academical0-1
Market aligned with main pickAlloa Athletic to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Alloa Athletic Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Alloa Athletic's recent form is markedly stronger, with 8 points gained compared to Airdrie United's 2 points. Alloa's ability to secure points while conceding fewer goals underlines their tactical discipline and efficiency. Airdrie's struggles to score and prevent goals have contributed to their poor form, making Alloa favorites based on momentum and consistency.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Airdrie United wins
0Draws
5Alloa Athletic wins
09 May 2026Airdrie United v Alloa Athletic1-2
05 May 2026Alloa Athletic v Airdrie United1-0
09 Dec 2025Alloa Athletic v Airdrie United2-3
26 Jul 2025Airdrie United v Alloa Athletic2-3
01 Apr 2023Alloa Athletic v Airdrie United0-1
28 Jan 2023Airdrie United v Alloa Athletic4-0
Market aligned with main pickAlloa Athletic to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The ten previous meetings between these teams have averaged 2.6 goals per game, indicating a moderately open contest historically. While this supports the possibility of goals, Alloa Athletic's current defensive form suggests they may limit scoring opportunities more effectively this time. The head-to-head record provides useful background but is less decisive than recent form and season stats.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League One

Airdrie United6
Played
Alloa Athletic6
Airdrie United0.5
Avg goals for
Alloa Athletic1.2
Airdrie United1.7
Avg goals against
Alloa Athletic0.5
Airdrie United2
Clean sheets
Alloa Athletic3
Market aligned with main pickAlloa Athletic to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Alloa Athletic Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Season-long statistics show Alloa Athletic averaging 1.4 goals scored per game and conceding only 0.6, demonstrating a balanced and effective team. Airdrie United's lower scoring rate of 0.6 and higher concession rate of 2 goals per game highlight defensive vulnerabilities and offensive inefficiency, reinforcing Alloa's advantage in this matchup.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Alloa Athletic962314
10Airdrie United36033-7
Alloa Athletic's third-place standing with 9 points reflects their strong start and competitive edge in League One. Airdrie United's 10th place and 3 points indicate struggles to climb the table. While league position is not decisive alone, it underscores Alloa's better form and consistency, adding context to their favored status.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Airdrie United Over 2.5
20%Alloa Athletic Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, an average of 2.6 goals per game has been recorded, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo. Airdrie United's higher over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Alloa Athletic's defensive caution, indicating this match may feature controlled attacking phases with potential for key moments rather than open high-scoring play.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.