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Pogon Szczecin crestPogon Szczecin
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Wisla Plock crestWisla Plock

Ekstraklasa | Mon 07 Sep, 19:30

Pogon Szczecin v Wisla Plock Stats

Data last updated: Sun 06 Sep 2026, 08:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pogon Szczecin hosts Wisla Plock in an Ekstraklasa clash where Pogon’s recent form and mid-table stability contrast with Wisla Plock’s struggles near the relegation zone. Pogon’s tactical approach emphasizes controlled possession and efficient finishing, while Wisla Plock has shown defensive vulnerabilities and limited goal threat. The home side’s is bolstered by better recent results and a more balanced attack, setting up a contest where Pogon aims to capitalize on home advantage and Wisla Plock’s defensive lapses.

BT4Y best bet

Pogon Szczecin to Win

  • Pogon Szczecin holds a strong 71.9% to win, well above implied .
  • Pogon averages 1.4 goals per game with a solid defensive record conceding 0.8 goals.
  • Wisla Plock concedes 2 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailty.
  • Nsame leads attacking threat with 3.69 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • Wisla Plock ranks 16th with just 4 points, Pogon 9th with 8 points.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Pogon Szczecin to win due to their superior recent form, stronger defensive record, and more effective attacking output. Pogon’s ability to create and convert chances, led by J. Nsame’s high shot volume, contrasts with Wisla Plock’s defensive struggles and lower goal production. The 17.8% reflects a clear pricing advantage, supported by Pogon’s home stability and Wisla Plock’s ongoing difficulties. No data limitations affect , making this a robust selection based on current season dynamics.

Recent form and pointsPogon 8 points vs Wisla Plock 4 points
Strong positive
Goals scored/concededPogon 1.4 GF, 0.8 GA; Wisla Plock 0.6 GF, 2 GA
Strong positive
Key player attacking statsJ. Nsame 3.69 shots on target per 90
Positive
Model chance vs implied odds71.9% model chance vs 54.1% implied chance
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Pogon Szczecin’s tactical discipline and home advantage make them the likely winners against a Wisla Plock side struggling defensively. The home team’s superior chance creation and defensive solidity provide a strong foundation for victory, supported by their better recent form and league position.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Pogon Szczecin’s blend of attacking threat and defensive resilience positions them well to exploit Wisla Plock’s defensive weaknesses, making a home win the most logical outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Pogon Szczecin to Win evidence

Pogon Szczecin holds a strong 71.9% to win, well above implied .

Pogon averages 1.4 goals per game with a solid defensive record conceding 0.8 goals.

Wisla Plock concedes 2 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailty.

Nsame leads attacking threat with 3.69 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Pogon Szczecin to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.3, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Pogon’s 40% over 2.5 goals rate versus Wisla Plock’s 60% suggests potential for goals, but defensive solidity may keep totals controlled in this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Pogon Szczecin1.4
Avg goals scored
Wisla Plock0.6
Pogon Szczecin0.8
Avg goals conceded
Wisla Plock2
Pogon Szczecin40%
BTTS rate
Wisla Plock40%
Pogon Szczecin40%
Over 2.5 goals
Wisla Plock60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 49% · edge +5 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams to score is unlikely given Pogon’s solid defense conceding only 0.8 goals per game and Wisla Plock’s low scoring rate of 0.6 goals per game. The controlled goal context points to a low-scoring match with Pogon likely to keep a clean sheet or limit Wisla Plock’s chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Pogon Szczecin

DDWWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 1L
29 Aug 2026A Zaglebie Lubin0-0
23 Aug 2026H Wisla Krakow2-2
08 Aug 2026H Motor Lublin3-1
03 Aug 2026A Cracovia Krakow2-0
24 Jul 2026H Legia Warszawa0-1

Wisla Plock

LLLDW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 3L
28 Aug 2026H Korona Kielce0-2
23 Aug 2026A GKS Katowice0-5
07 Aug 2026A Wisla Krakow1-2
31 Jul 2026H Widzew Łódź0-0
26 Jul 2026A Raków Częstochowa2-1
Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Pogon Szczecin’s recent form shows 8 points gained with a balanced attack and defense, contrasting with Wisla Plock’s 4 points and higher goals conceded. Pogon’s consistency and ability to control matches underpin their favored status in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Pogon Szczecin852213
16Wisla Plock45113-7
Pogon Szczecin sits comfortably in 9th place with 8 points, while Wisla Plock is near the bottom at 16th with 4 points. The standings reflect Pogon’s stronger position and less pressure, likely influencing and performance levels.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The for Pogon Szczecin to win offer clear value, with the model assigning a 71.9% chance compared to the market’s 54.1% implied probability. This significant reflects Pogon’s stronger form and defensive record, suggesting the current price is attractive for backing the home side.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Pogon Szczecin2.33
Avg corners for
Wisla Plock6.33
Pogon Szczecin5.67
Avg total corners
Wisla Plock11.33
Pogon Szczecin2.33
Avg yellow cards
Wisla Plock2
Pogon Szczecin12
Avg shots
Wisla Plock13.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Wisla Plock averages more corners (8) and shots (16.2) than Pogon, indicating they may press offensively but lack finishing quality. Pogon’s discipline with 1.8 yellow cards per game versus Wisla Plock’s 1.6 suggests a balanced physical contest without excessive fouling, supporting a controlled tempo.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Pogon Szczecin wins
3Draws
3Wisla Plock wins
03 May 2026Pogon Szczecin v Wisla Plock3-0
03 Nov 2025Wisla Plock v Pogon Szczecin2-0
26 Feb 2023Wisla Plock v Pogon Szczecin0-1
13 Aug 2022Pogon Szczecin v Wisla Plock2-2
08 Apr 2022Pogon Szczecin v Wisla Plock1-2
17 Oct 2021Wisla Plock v Pogon Szczecin1-0
Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 2.3 goals per game, indicating moderately open games historically. While past meetings provide some context, current form and season stats offer stronger guidance for this fixture.
Season team stats

Ekstraklasa

Pogon Szczecin5
Played
Wisla Plock5
Pogon Szczecin1.4
Avg goals for
Wisla Plock0.6
Pogon Szczecin0.8
Avg goals against
Wisla Plock2
Pogon Szczecin2
Clean sheets
Wisla Plock1
Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Pogon Szczecin’s season stats reveal a well-rounded team with 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, reflecting effective offense and defense. Wisla Plock’s 0.6 goals scored and 2 conceded highlight their struggles, reinforcing Pogon’s advantage.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Pogon Szczecin Over 2.5
60%Wisla Plock Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.3, indicating moderate scoring. Pogon’s 40% over 2.5 goals rate versus Wisla Plock’s 60% suggests potential for goals, but defensive solidity may keep totals controlled in this encounter.

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