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Plymouth crestPlymouth
v
Burton Albion crestBurton Albion

League One | Sat 26 Sep, 15:00

Plymouth v Burton Albion Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Plymouth enters this League One clash in strong form, sitting third in the table with 13 points from recent matches, showcasing a potent attack averaging 2.4 goals per game. Burton Albion, positioned 12th with 9 points, have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals per match. Plymouth's home performances have been marked by sustained pressure and effective finishing, while Burton Albion's recent outings reveal defensive vulnerabilities and less attacking threat. This fixture presents a tactical battle where Plymouth's attacking consistency and home advantage set the stage for a likely home victory, though Burton's resilience could test the hosts' defensive discipline.

BT4Y best bet

Plymouth to Win

  • Plymouth ranks 3rd with 13 points, Burton Albion 12th with 9 points
  • Plymouth averages 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game
  • Burton Albion concedes 2 goals per game and scores 1.8 on average
  • Plymouth averages 15 shots and 5.8 shots on target per match, Burton Albion 8.8 shots and 2.8 on target
  • Burton Albion has a higher BTTS rate (80%) compared to Plymouth's 40%

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Plymouth to win, reflecting their superior recent form, stronger offensive output, and defensive solidity compared to Burton Albion. Plymouth's higher shot volume and accuracy underpin their attacking threat, while Burton's defensive record and lower shot creation suggest vulnerability. The 12.3% indicates the current undervalue Plymouth's chances, making this a favorable bet. No data limitations affect , supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Recent FormPlymouth has 12 points in recent matches vs Burton's 5
Strong positive
Goal ScoringPlymouth averages 2.4 goals per game vs Burton's 1.8
Positive
Defensive RecordPlymouth concedes 1.2 goals per game vs Burton's 2
Positive
Shot VolumePlymouth averages 15 shots per game vs Burton's 8.8
Strong positive
Value Edge12.3% positive value on Plymouth to Win
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Plymouth's consistent attacking output and solid defensive record provide a strong tactical and statistical foundation for a home win. Their ability to create and convert chances, coupled with Burton Albion's defensive struggles, makes Plymouth the clear favorite to secure victory in this League One fixture.

Main risk

This eliminates the push scenario of the +1 Asian Handicap line but offers a shorter price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Plymouth's superior shot creation and defensive stability make them the logical choice here, especially given Burton Albion's struggles to contain opponents and maintain clean sheets.”

Key Data Signals

Plymouth to Win evidence

Plymouth ranks 3rd with 13 points, Burton Albion 12th with 9 points

Plymouth averages 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game

Burton Albion concedes 2 goals per game and scores 1.8 on average

Plymouth averages 15 shots and 5.8 shots on target per match, Burton Albion 8.8 shots and 2.8 on target

What To Watch In The Data

Plymouth to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.6, with a notable trend towards matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • Plymouth's 60% over 2.5 rate and Burton Albion's 100% rate in recent games suggest an open game with attacking intent from both sides, likely resulting in multiple goal opportunities and a lively tempo.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Plymouth6.4
Avg corners for
Burton Albion3.2
Plymouth12.2
Avg total corners
Burton Albion8.8
Plymouth0.8
Avg yellow cards
Burton Albion1.6
Plymouth15
Avg shots
Burton Albion8.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Plymouth's control in shots (15 per game) and corners (6.4 per game) highlights their territorial control and attacking pressure. Burton Albion's higher average of yellow cards (1.6) compared to Plymouth (0.8) reflects a more aggressive defensive approach, which could lead to set-piece opportunities and influence the match's physicality and rhythm.

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Useful next reads

more League One analysisPlymouth v Burton Albion predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Plymouth2.4
Avg goals scored
Burton Albion1.8
Plymouth1.2
Avg goals conceded
Burton Albion2
Plymouth40%
BTTS rate
Burton Albion80%
Plymouth60%
Over 2.5 goals
Burton Albion100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 59% · edge +14.5 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Plymouth's average of 2.4 goals per game and Burton Albion's 1.8, combined with Burton's 80% BTTS rate, indicate a match with goal-scoring potential from both sides. However, Plymouth's lower BTTS rate (40%) suggests they often keep clean sheets, pointing to a game where Plymouth may control scoring while limiting Burton's chances.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPlymouth to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Plymouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
The current for Plymouth to win reflect a positive value opportunity, with the model's 74% win probability exceeding the implied 61.7% chance. This suggests the market underestimates Plymouth's strength, likely due to their recent form and home advantage. would need to shorten further to reduce value appeal, but the present pricing supports a confident backing of Plymouth.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Plymouth

WWWLW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 2L
19 Sep 2026A Blackpool4-2
12 Sep 2026H Barnsley3-0
05 Sep 2026A Doncaster3-2
01 Sep 2026A Leicester0-2
29 Aug 2026H Bradford2-0

Burton Albion

DLDWL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 2L
19 Sep 2026H Mansfield Town2-2
12 Sep 2026A Oxford United0-3
05 Sep 2026H Cambridge United2-2
02 Sep 2026H AFC Wimbledon4-1
29 Aug 2026A Notts County1-2
Market aligned with main pickPlymouth to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Plymouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Plymouth's recent form is impressive, securing 12 points with a strong goal difference, reflecting effective attacking and defensive balance. Burton Albion's 5 points and higher goals conceded highlight defensive frailties and less consistent performances, reinforcing Plymouth's advantage going into this match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Plymouth wins
4Draws
1Burton Albion wins
04 Jan 2026Plymouth v Burton Albion3-0
27 Sep 2025Burton Albion v Plymouth0-4
29 Apr 2023Plymouth v Burton Albion1-0
19 Nov 2022Burton Albion v Plymouth2-2
09 Apr 2022Burton Albion v Plymouth0-0
09 Oct 2021Plymouth v Burton Albion2-1
Market aligned with main pickPlymouth to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 2.6 goals per game, indicating competitive encounters with moderate scoring. While past results provide some context, current form and tactical setups carry more weight for this fixture, as team dynamics have evolved since previous meetings.
Season team stats

League One

Plymouth7
Played
Burton Albion7
Plymouth2
Avg goals for
Burton Albion1.7
Plymouth1.4
Avg goals against
Burton Albion1.7
Plymouth2
Clean sheets
Burton Albion0
Market aligned with main pickPlymouth to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Plymouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Across the season, Plymouth's attack ranks highly with 2.4 goals per game, supported by solid defense conceding 1.2 goals. Burton Albion's stats show a less potent attack and a leaky defense conceding twice per match, underscoring Plymouth's overall superiority in both phases of play.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Plymouth1374124
12Burton Albion972320
Plymouth's position near the top of League One with 13 points reflects strong early-season form and momentum, while Burton Albion's mid-table standing with 9 points indicates inconsistency. The standings suggest Plymouth has more at stake to maintain promotion challenge momentum, adding competitive edge to their home performance.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Plymouth Over 2.5
100%Burton Albion Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.6, with a notable trend towards matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Plymouth's 60% over 2.5 rate and Burton Albion's 100% rate in recent games suggest an open game with attacking intent from both sides, likely resulting in multiple goal opportunities and a lively tempo.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Plymouth v Burton Albion prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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