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Piast Gliwice crestPiast Gliwice
v
Legia Warszawa crestLegia Warszawa

Ekstraklasa | Sat 22 Aug, 16:30

Piast Gliwice v Legia Warszawa Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Legia Warszawa arrives at this Ekstraklasa fixture as the league leaders with a strong start, having collected 10 points from their opening matches. Piast Gliwice, struggling near the bottom with just 3 points, face a tough challenge against a side demonstrating solid defensive organization and attacking efficiency. Legia's tactical setup emphasizes control and quick transitions, while Piast has shown vulnerability in defense, conceding an average of 3 goals per game. The match carries significant stakes for Piast to climb out of the relegation zone, but Legia's consistent form and squad depth make them clear favorites in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Legia Warszawa to Win

  • Legia Warszawa leads the league with 10 points, showing strong form.
  • Piast Gliwice has conceded 3 goals per game on average, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Legia averages 2.5 goals scored per game, highlighting attacking potency.
  • Piast's over 2.5 goals rate is 75%, suggesting open games involving them.
  • Legia's shots on target average (5.75) surpass Piast's (4.75), reflecting offensive pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Legia Warszawa to win with a 70% chance, supported by their superior recent form, league standing, and defensive solidity conceding only 0.5 goals per game. Legia's attack is efficient, averaging 2.5 goals per match, while Piast struggles defensively. The price at 2.0 offers positive value given the implied chance of 50%. The data quality is solid for both teams, reinforcing in the prediction. Legia's ability to control matches and limit opposition chances underpins the model's in their victory.

Recent formLegia 10 points vs Piast 3 points
Strong positive
Defensive recordLegia concedes 0.5 goals/game
Strong positive
Attacking outputLegia scores 2.5 goals/game
Positive
Price vs model chance2.0 odds imply 50%, model chance 70%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Legia Warszawa's tactical discipline and clinical finishing have propelled them to the top of the Ekstraklasa, making them the clear favorites against a defensively vulnerable Piast Gliwice. Their recent form and defensive strength provide a solid foundation for victory in this away fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Legia Warszawa's balance of solid defense and efficient attack creates a compelling case for their win here, especially given Piast's defensive struggles and need to respond under pressure.”

Key Data Signals

Legia Warszawa to Win evidence

Legia Warszawa leads the league with 10 points, showing strong form.

Piast Gliwice has conceded 3 goals per game on average, indicating defensive frailty.

Legia averages 2.5 goals scored per game, highlighting attacking potency.

Piast's over 2.5 goals rate is 75%, suggesting open games involving them.

What To Watch In The Data

Legia Warszawa to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals in Legia vs Piast encounters is 1.7, slightly below the league average, suggesting tactical caution historically.
  • However, Piast's current high over 2.5 goals rate and Legia's attacking efficiency suggest this match could see more open play and goal opportunities than past meetings.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Piast Gliwice6.25
Avg corners for
Legia Warszawa4.25
Piast Gliwice12.25
Avg total corners
Legia Warszawa7.5
Piast Gliwice1.25
Avg yellow cards
Legia Warszawa0.75
Piast Gliwice15
Avg shots
Legia Warszawa17.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Piast Gliwice averages more corners (6.25) and yellow cards (1.25) than Legia Warszawa, indicating a more aggressive and pressured style. Legia's higher shots (17.25) and shots on target (5.75) reflect greater offensive control and precision, which could translate into sustained pressure and scoring opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Piast Gliwice1.75
Avg goals scored
Legia Warszawa2.5
Piast Gliwice3
Avg goals conceded
Legia Warszawa0.5
Piast Gliwice50%
BTTS rate
Legia Warszawa50%
Piast Gliwice75%
Over 2.5 goals
Legia Warszawa50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 59% · edge +7.9 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams show contrasting goal trends: Piast Gliwice's matches often exceed 2.5 goals with a 75% rate, reflecting defensive openness, while Legia's games have a 50% over 2.5 rate, balancing attack and defense. Both teams have a 50% BTTS rate, suggesting a moderate likelihood of both sides scoring in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLegia Warszawa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Legia Warszawa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The of 2.0 for Legia Warszawa to win represent a positive value opportunity, as the model estimates their chance at 70%. This gap indicates the market may underestimate Legia's consistency and defensive strength, making the selection attractive at current pricing.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Piast Gliwice

LLWL
Last 51W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 3L
15 Aug 2026H Wieczysta Kraków3-4
09 Aug 2026A Lech Poznan0-3
01 Aug 2026H Wisla Krakow4-3
27 Jul 2026A Zaglebie Lubin0-2

Legia Warszawa

WDWW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
14 Aug 2026H Radomiak Radom5-0
08 Aug 2026A Korona Kielce1-1
02 Aug 2026H Zaglebie Lubin3-1
24 Jul 2026A Pogon Szczecin1-0
Market aligned with main pickLegia Warszawa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Legia Warszawa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Legia Warszawa's recent form is strong, securing 10 points with a solid defensive record conceding only 0.5 goals per game. Piast Gliwice's form is weaker, with just 3 points and a leaky defense conceding 3 goals per game, highlighting a significant form gap favoring Legia.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Piast Gliwice wins
2Draws
3Legia Warszawa wins
14 Dec 2025Legia Warszawa v Piast Gliwice0-1
06 Dec 2025Piast Gliwice v Legia Warszawa2-0
08 Feb 2025Piast Gliwice v Legia Warszawa1-0
18 Jan 2025Piast Gliwice v Legia Warszawa0-0
04 Aug 2024Legia Warszawa v Piast Gliwice1-2
17 Mar 2024Legia Warszawa v Piast Gliwice3-1
Market aligned with main pickLegia Warszawa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The head-to-head record over the last ten matches shows an average of 1.7 goals per game, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. While this provides some background, current form and tactical shifts suggest the upcoming match may differ, with Legia's offensive improvements likely to influence the outcome.
Season team stats

Ekstraklasa

Piast Gliwice4
Played
Legia Warszawa4
Piast Gliwice1.8
Avg goals for
Legia Warszawa2.5
Piast Gliwice3
Avg goals against
Legia Warszawa0.5
Piast Gliwice0
Clean sheets
Legia Warszawa2
Market aligned with main pickLegia Warszawa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Legia Warszawa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Legia Warszawa's season stats reveal a potent attack averaging 2.5 goals per match combined with a robust defense allowing only 0.5 goals per game, underscoring their balance. Piast Gliwice's season shows defensive vulnerabilities and a higher rate of high-scoring games, which may expose them against a disciplined Legia side.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Legia Warszawa1043108
16Piast Gliwice34103-5
Legia Warszawa sits atop the Ekstraklasa standings, reflecting consistent performance and squad strength. Piast Gliwice's position near the relegation zone adds pressure to perform but also indicates a quality gap that Legia can exploit in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Piast Gliwice Over 2.5
50%Legia Warszawa Over 2.5
1.7H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals in Legia vs Piast encounters is 1.7, slightly below the league average, suggesting tactical caution historically. However, Piast's current high over 2.5 goals rate and Legia's attacking efficiency suggest this match could see more open play and goal opportunities than past meetings.

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