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Korona Kielce crestKorona Kielce
v
Motor Lublin crestMotor Lublin

Ekstraklasa | Sat 22 Aug, 13:45

Korona Kielce v Motor Lublin Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin meet in an Ekstraklasa clash where both sides have shown a tendency to concede and score in recent matches. Each team has collected 4 points so far, with Korona Kielce averaging 1 goal per game and Motor Lublin slightly higher at 1.25. Motor Lublin's attacking play, combined with Korona Kielce's vulnerability at the back, suggests an open contest with chances at both ends. The fixture promises competitive intensity as both teams aim to climb the league standings early in the season.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have a high BTTS rate: Korona Kielce 67%, Motor Lublin 75%.
  • Motor Lublin averages 15.75 shots per game with 5.25 on target, indicating offensive threat.
  • Korona Kielce concedes an average of 1 goal per game, showing defensive frailty.
  • Recent form shows both teams scoring in most matches, supporting BTTS likelihood.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 1.83 over six meetings, reflecting moderate scoring encounters.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, well above the implied market chance of 59.9%, indicating clear value in this BTTS selection. Both sides demonstrate offensive intent and defensive vulnerabilities, with Motor Lublin particularly active in shots and key passes. Korona Kielce's 67% BTTS rate and Motor Lublin's 75% underline the strong likelihood of goals at both ends. No data limitations affect , making this a robust pick based on attacking and defensive profiles.

Model chance76%
Strong positive
Korona Kielce BTTS rate67%
Positive
Motor Lublin BTTS rate75%
Strong positive
Shots and shots on targetBoth teams average over 15 shots with good accuracy
Positive
Implied market chance59.9%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown attacking promise and defensive lapses, making both teams to score a logical choice. Motor Lublin's higher shot volume and Korona Kielce's tendency to concede support the expectation of goals at both ends. This pick aligns well with the tactical openness and recent scoring patterns of both sides.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“This fixture features two sides with offensive intent and defensive vulnerabilities, creating fertile ground for goals at both ends. The statistical signals strongly back a BTTS outcome as both teams look to assert themselves early in the season.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have a high BTTS rate: Korona Kielce 67%, Motor Lublin 75%.

Motor Lublin averages 15.75 shots per game with 5.25 on target, indicating offensive threat.

Korona Kielce concedes an average of 1 goal per game, showing defensive frailty.

Recent form shows both teams scoring in most matches, supporting BTTS likelihood.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.83 per game, indicating moderate scoring frequency.
  • Motor Lublin's high over 2.5 goals rate of 75% this season contrasts with Korona Kielce's 33%, suggesting potential for an open game with goals.
  • This trend panel supports the likelihood of multiple goals and BTTS in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Korona Kielce5.33
Avg corners for
Motor Lublin3
Korona Kielce11.33
Avg total corners
Motor Lublin4.5
Korona Kielce1
Avg yellow cards
Motor Lublin1.5
Korona Kielce15.33
Avg shots
Motor Lublin18
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 58% · edge -13.3 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 39%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Both teams generate a healthy volume of shots, with Motor Lublin averaging 15.75 shots and 5.25 on target, indicating sustained offensive pressure. Korona Kielce averages more corners (5.33) than Motor Lublin (3.75), suggesting territorial advantage at times. The card counts are moderate, implying a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment conducive to open play and goal chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Korona Kielce1
Avg goals scored
Motor Lublin1.25
Korona Kielce1
Avg goals conceded
Motor Lublin1.75
Korona Kielce67%
BTTS rate
Motor Lublin75%
Korona Kielce33%
Over 2.5 goals
Motor Lublin75%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin both have high BTTS rates of 67% and 75% respectively, reflecting frequent scoring and conceding. Motor Lublin's average goals for (1.25) and against (1.75) suggest open games, while Korona Kielce's balanced scoring and conceding pattern supports a match with goals at both ends. This aligns well with the BTTS selection.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Motor Lublin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Motor Lublin to WinBetfred guide price · model 39%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Korona Kielce Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Korona Kielce to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively at implying a 59.9% chance, while the model estimates a 76% probability, indicating a significant . This suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of goals from both sides, making the BTTS bet a positive-value opportunity without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Korona Kielce

WDL
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
15 Aug 2026A Widzew Łódź2-1
08 Aug 2026H Legia Warszawa1-1
25 Jul 2026A Jagiellonia0-1

Motor Lublin

WLLD
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
16 Aug 2026H GKS Katowice1-0
08 Aug 2026A Pogon Szczecin1-3
31 Jul 2026H Jagiellonia1-2
26 Jul 2026A Widzew Łódź2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +12.9 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Motor Lublin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Motor Lublin to WinBetfred guide price · model 39%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Korona Kielce Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Korona Kielce to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Recent form data shows both teams scoring and conceding regularly, with Korona Kielce scoring 1 goal and conceding 1 per game, and Motor Lublin scoring 1.25 but conceding 1.75. Both teams have collected 4 points, indicating competitive but open matches. The high BTTS rates in recent games reinforce the expectation of goals from both sides in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Korona Kielce wins
3Draws
1Motor Lublin wins
28 Feb 2026Motor Lublin v Korona Kielce2-0
23 Aug 2025Korona Kielce v Motor Lublin2-0
09 Feb 2025Korona Kielce v Motor Lublin1-0
04 Aug 2024Motor Lublin v Korona Kielce1-1
22 Jun 2024Korona Kielce v Motor Lublin1-1
08 Jul 2023Korona Kielce v Motor Lublin1-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Motor Lublin to WinBetfred guide price · model 39%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Korona Kielce to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The six previous meetings between Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin have produced an average of 1.83 goals per game, a moderate scoring rate that suggests neither side dominates defensively. While the sample is limited, the balanced goal output supports the expectation of goals from both teams, aligning with the BTTS pick.
Season team stats

Ekstraklasa

Korona Kielce3
Played
Motor Lublin4
Korona Kielce1
Avg goals for
Motor Lublin1.3
Korona Kielce1
Avg goals against
Motor Lublin1.8
Korona Kielce0
Clean sheets
Motor Lublin1
Best odds for this sectionMotor Lublin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 49% vs implied 41% · edge +8.1 pts
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Load more odds for this section
Motor Lublin to WinBetfred guide price · model 39%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Korona Kielce Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Korona Kielce to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Season-long statistics reveal Korona Kielce's moderate attack and defense balance, with a 33% over 2.5 goals rate and 67% BTTS rate. Motor Lublin exhibits a more attack-oriented profile, with a 75% BTTS rate and 75% over 2.5 goals rate, highlighting their openness and goal involvement. These season stats underpin the BTTS selection by showing consistent goal-scoring and conceding patterns.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Korona Kielce431110
13Motor Lublin44112-2
Both Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin sit in the lower mid-table positions (11th and 13th) with 4 points each, reflecting early-season parity. While league position alone is not decisive, it suggests both teams are motivated to secure points and may adopt attacking approaches to improve their standings, supporting a BTTS scenario.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Korona Kielce Over 2.5
75%Motor Lublin Over 2.5
1.83H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.83 per game, indicating moderate scoring frequency. Motor Lublin's high over 2.5 goals rate of 75% this season contrasts with Korona Kielce's 33%, suggesting potential for an open game with goals. This trend panel supports the likelihood of multiple goals and BTTS in this fixture.

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