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Palmeiras crestPalmeiras
v
Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama

Serie A | Sun 23 Aug, 20:00

Palmeiras v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Data last updated: Sat 22 Aug 2026, 07:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras, leading Serie A and known for a balanced but controlled attacking style, face Vasco DA Gama, struggling near the relegation zone with limited scoring output. Palmeiras have scored 2 goals in recent matches while conceding 1.2 on average, showing a tendency to manage games without excessive risk. Vasco DA Gama's attack is notably subdued, averaging just 0.2 goals recently, which suggests a cautious approach in this fixture. The tactical setup and current form point to a match likely to feature fewer goals, with both teams prioritizing defensive solidity over open attacking play.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Palmeiras have an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals but recent form shows only 2 goals scored in last matches, indicating possible regression.
  • Vasco DA Gama's recent matches have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, reflecting their limited offensive threat.
  • Both teams average around 1.2 goals conceded recently, suggesting defensive discipline on both sides.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.1 over the last 10 meetings, supporting a lower scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 56.9% chance, slightly above the market's 51.3% implied probability, indicating modest value. Palmeiras' recent scoring has dipped despite their normally higher scoring rate, while Vasco DA Gama's attack remains weak. Defensive averages and cautious tactical approaches from both sides support a lower-scoring game. No price warnings apply, and the data quality is solid, making this a standard pick with a reasonable edge.

Model Chance56.9%
Positive
Implied Market Chance51.3%
Neutral
Recent Goals ScoredPalmeiras 2, Vasco DA Gama 0.2
Positive
Defensive Concession Rate1.2 goals each
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.1 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a solid pick given Palmeiras' controlled attacking style and Vasco DA Gama's limited offensive threat. The recent form data shows both teams focusing on defensive organization, making a low-scoring game the most plausible outcome.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based rationale for Under 2.5 Goals

“Palmeiras' methodical approach combined with Vasco DA Gama's struggles upfront sets the stage for a tight, low-scoring encounter where defensive discipline will be key.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average around 1.2 goals conceded recently, suggesting defensive discipline on both sides.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.1 over the last 10 meetings, supporting a lower scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, slightly above two but below three, indicating a trend toward moderate scoring.
  • This sample suggests matches often remain tight with few high-scoring outliers, supporting a tempo and tactical setup conducive to under 2.5 goals in this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Palmeiras2
Avg goals scored
Vasco DA Gama0.2
Palmeiras1.2
Avg goals conceded
Vasco DA Gama1.2
Palmeiras60%
BTTS rate
Vasco DA Gama20%
Palmeiras80%
Over 2.5 goals
Vasco DA Gama20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 51% · edge +5.6 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Goal and BTTS trends reveal Palmeiras have a high over 2.5 goals rate historically but recent matches show reduced scoring, while Vasco DA Gama's low scoring and BTTS rates indicate limited offensive threat. This combination points to a match less likely to see both teams scoring or many goals overall.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionPalmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +9.5 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Load more odds for this section
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced with a slight as the model's 56.9% chance exceeds the implied 51.3% market probability. This suggests the of 1.95 offer a reasonable opportunity, reflecting the cautious attacking profiles and recent scoring trends of both teams.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Palmeiras5
Avg corners for
Vasco DA Gama6
Palmeiras10.25
Avg total corners
Vasco DA Gama10.33
Palmeiras1.5
Avg yellow cards
Vasco DA Gama1.33
Palmeiras18.25
Avg shots
Vasco DA Gama19.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Both teams generate similar corner counts, with Palmeiras averaging 5 and Vasco DA Gama 4.8 per match, indicating balanced territorial play. Yellow card averages are moderate, with Palmeiras at 1.8 and Vasco DA Gama at 1.2, suggesting disciplined defensive efforts. Shot volumes are comparable, but the quality and finishing have been limited, supporting a controlled game pace.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Palmeiras

LDWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
15 Aug 2026A Fluminense2-3
09 Aug 2026H Internacional0-0
30 Jul 2026A Vitoria4-0
26 Jul 2026H Atletico-MG1-2
22 Jul 2026A Coritiba3-1

Vasco DA Gama

LDDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
16 Aug 2026H Santos0-3
09 Aug 2026A Bahia0-0
26 Jul 2026H Mirassol1-1
16 Jul 2026A Vitoria0-1
31 May 2026H Atletico-MG0-1
Best odds for this sectionPalmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +9.5 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Load more odds for this section
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 19%
4
Check odds @ 4
Recent form data shows Palmeiras scoring only 2 goals while conceding 1.2, a dip from their usual attacking output. Vasco DA Gama's 0.2 goals scored and similar goals conceded reflect offensive struggles and defensive resilience. These trends align with a match likely to stay under 2.5 goals given both teams' current momentum and tactical caution.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Palmeiras wins
2Draws
1Vasco DA Gama wins
12 Mar 2026Vasco DA Gama v Palmeiras2-1
01 Oct 2025Palmeiras v Vasco DA Gama3-0
04 May 2025Vasco DA Gama v Palmeiras0-1
22 Sep 2024Vasco DA Gama v Palmeiras0-1
14 Jun 2024Palmeiras v Vasco DA Gama2-0
27 Aug 2023Palmeiras v Vasco DA Gama1-0
Best odds for this sectionPalmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +9.5 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 19%
4
Check odds @ 4
The 10 previous meetings between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama average 2.1 goals per game, reflecting generally balanced encounters without frequent high-scoring outcomes. This historical data supports a cautious reading for this match, where defensive organization has often limited goal totals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Palmeiras23
Played
Vasco DA Gama22
Palmeiras1.7
Avg goals for
Vasco DA Gama1
Palmeiras0.8
Avg goals against
Vasco DA Gama1.5
Palmeiras9
Clean sheets
Vasco DA Gama2
Best odds for this sectionPalmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +9.5 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Load more odds for this section
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Vasco DA Gama to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Season-long statistics reveal Palmeiras as a top-ranked team with balanced scoring and defense, while Vasco DA Gama sits near the bottom with poor offensive numbers. Palmeiras' 80% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Vasco DA Gama's 20%, indicating a clash of styles but overall defensive solidity that may suppress goal totals in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Palmeiras4823146321
19Vasco DA Gama22225710-11
Palmeiras leads the Serie A standings with 48 points, exerting pressure to maintain their position, while Vasco DA Gama is 19th with 22 points, fighting relegation. The stakes suggest Palmeiras may control possession and tempo, but Vasco DA Gama's defensive focus to avoid defeat could limit goal-scoring opportunities, reinforcing the under 2.5 goals outlook.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Palmeiras Over 2.5
20%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, slightly above two but below three, indicating a trend toward moderate scoring. This sample suggests matches often remain tight with few high-scoring outliers, supporting a tempo and tactical setup conducive to under 2.5 goals in this encounter.

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