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Flamengo crestFlamengo

Serie A | Sun 23 Aug, 00:30

Cruzeiro v Flamengo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 22 Aug 2026, 07:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cruzeiro host Flamengo at the Mineirao in a high-stakes Copa Libertadores last-16 first leg, where both sides bring strong attacking credentials. Cruzeiro arrive after consecutive home wins, showing solid finishing and creative influence from Matheus Pereira despite key suspensions. Flamengo, unbeaten in recent matches, exert territorial control with high passing volume and dangerous attacking threats like Arrascaeta and Pedro. Defensive absences on both sides add to the likelihood of goals at both ends, setting up a tactical battle where offensive potency meets defensive adjustments in a cautious but open contest.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Cruzeiro scored in their last two home wins, showing good finishing form.
  • Flamengo scored 14 goals in six group matches, demonstrating strong attacking consistency.
  • Both teams have averaged around 15 shots per game, indicating active offensive play.
  • Defensive absences on both sides increase chances for goals from open play.
  • Midfield battles and creative players like Matheus Pereira and Arrascaeta suggest multiple scoring routes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 73.3% chance for both teams to score, reflecting strong attacking form from Cruzeiro and Flamengo. Both teams have consistent scoring records and generate high shot volumes, with Flamengo's territorial control balanced by Cruzeiro's home momentum. Defensive vulnerabilities and missing key players increase the likelihood of goals at both ends. The current of 2.0 offer good value given the 50% implied chance, supported by tactical and statistical evidence. No significant data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance73.3%
Strong positive
Implied Probability50%
Positive
Value Edge+23.3%
Strong positive
Recent Scoring FormBoth teams scored in 60% of recent matches
Strong positive
Defensive AbsencesKey suspensions and injuries increase goal likelihood
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams possess strong attacking qualities and have shown consistent scoring in recent matches, making both teams to score a logical choice. Flamengo's territorial control and Cruzeiro's home momentum create multiple avenues for goals, while defensive absences on both sides increase vulnerability. This tactical balance suggests goals at both ends are likely in this first-leg encounter.

Main risk

Cruzeiro need to exploit home advantage, but treating the first leg like a 90-minute final would be reckless.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“This fixture features two sides with potent offenses and some defensive fragility, making both teams to score a compelling market. The midfield battle and creative players on each side will be key to unlocking chances, ensuring goals from both teams.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Cruzeiro scored in their last two home wins, showing good finishing form.

Flamengo scored 14 goals in six group matches, demonstrating strong attacking consistency.

Both teams have averaged around 15 shots per game, indicating active offensive play.

Defensive absences on both sides increase chances for goals from open play.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.1, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Recent form shows both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, and Cruzeiro's 60% over 2.5 goals rate suggests openness in attack.
  • These trends point to a match with goal-scoring opportunities on both sides, supporting the BTTS market without forcing an over/under goals prediction.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cruzeiro1.6
Avg goals scored
Flamengo2.6
Cruzeiro0.8
Avg goals conceded
Flamengo0.6
Cruzeiro60%
BTTS rate
Flamengo60%
Cruzeiro60%
Over 2.5 goals
Flamengo40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both Cruzeiro and Flamengo have shown consistent scoring, with both teams scoring in 60% of recent matches. Flamengo's 14 goals in six group games and Cruzeiro's recent home scoring runs highlight attacking potency. Defensive absences and midfield battles suggest open play and goal opportunities at both ends, supporting the likelihood of both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Cruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · model 39%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Flamengo to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at even (2.0) with an implied probability of 50%, while the model estimates a 73.3% chance, indicating clear value. This discrepancy reflects in both sides' attacking form and defensive vulnerabilities. The price is attractive and supported by tactical and statistical evidence, making it a strong value bet without price sensitivity concerns.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Cruzeiro6
Avg corners for
Flamengo4.4
Cruzeiro8.8
Avg total corners
Flamengo7.2
Cruzeiro3.6
Avg yellow cards
Flamengo1
Cruzeiro15
Avg shots
Flamengo15.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Both teams average around 15 shots per game, with Flamengo slightly higher on shots on target, indicating sustained attacking pressure. Cruzeiro averages more corners, reflecting home attacking intent. Flamengo's lower yellow card average suggests disciplined play, while Cruzeiro's higher card count may reflect more aggressive pressing, contributing to set-piece opportunities and open play chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cruzeiro

WWWLW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
16 Aug 2026A Corinthians2-1
09 Aug 2026H Mirassol3-1
31 Jul 2026A Coritiba1-0
26 Jul 2026H Botafogo0-1
23 Jul 2026A Internacional2-1

Flamengo

WWDDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
16 Aug 2026A Mirassol5-1
09 Aug 2026H Vitoria2-0
29 Jul 2026A Internacional1-1
26 Jul 2026H Sao Paulo1-1
23 Jul 2026A Chapecoense-sc4-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 64% · edge +3.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Cruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · model 39%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Flamengo to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Cruzeiro have accumulated 12 points with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match recently, showing solid home form. Flamengo have 11 points with a higher scoring rate of 2.6 goals per match and a tighter defense conceding 0.6 goals. Both teams have a 60% rate of matches with both teams scoring, reflecting consistent offensive output and supporting the BTTS pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Cruzeiro wins
3Draws
6Flamengo wins
20 Aug 2026Flamengo v Cruzeiro2-1
13 Aug 2026Cruzeiro v Flamengo1-1
12 Mar 2026Flamengo v Cruzeiro2-0
03 Oct 2025Flamengo v Cruzeiro0-0
04 May 2025Cruzeiro v Flamengo2-1
07 Nov 2024Cruzeiro v Flamengo0-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Cruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · model 39%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Flamengo to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The last ten head-to-head matches average 2.1 goals per game, showing a moderate scoring trend. While not overwhelmingly high, this supports the possibility of goals from both teams. The sample size is reasonable but not definitive, so current form and tactical context carry more weight in anticipating both teams to score.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Cruzeiro24
Played
Flamengo23
Cruzeiro1.4
Avg goals for
Flamengo2
Cruzeiro1.4
Avg goals against
Flamengo0.9
Cruzeiro5
Clean sheets
Flamengo9
Best odds for this sectionCruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 31% · edge +7.3 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Flamengo to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Flamengo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Season-long data shows Cruzeiro scoring 1.6 goals per game with a 60% BTTS rate, while Flamengo score 2.6 goals per game with the same BTTS rate. Defensive records are balanced, with both teams conceding under one goal per match on average. These stats underline the attacking capabilities and defensive openness that make both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Flamengo4523136424
5Cruzeiro392411671
Flamengo rank 2nd with 45 points, while Cruzeiro sit 5th with 36 points in Serie A. Although Flamengo hold a higher position, both teams are competitive and in good form, suggesting a balanced contest. The standings reflect quality squads capable of scoring, but do not dictate a defensive approach, aligning with the expectation of goals at both ends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Cruzeiro Over 2.5
40%Flamengo Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.1, indicating moderate scoring. Recent form shows both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, and Cruzeiro's 60% over 2.5 goals rate suggests openness in attack. These trends point to a match with goal-scoring opportunities on both sides, supporting the BTTS market without forcing an over/under goals prediction.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Cruzeiro v Flamengo prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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