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Novorizontino crestNovorizontino
v
Avai crestAvai

Serie B | Sat 05 Sep, 20:00

Novorizontino v Avai Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Novorizontino hosts Avai in a Serie B clash where Novorizontino sits comfortably in 4th place, while Avai struggles near the relegation zone at 16th. Novorizontino has shown strong attacking form with 1.8 goals per game and a solid defense conceding just 0.6 goals on average. Avai, despite lower scoring at 1.2 goals per game, has maintained a resilient defense conceding 0.8 goals. Recent form data shows both teams are competitive, but Avai’s ability to avoid defeat away from home makes the double chance on Avai or Draw an intriguing tactical angle for this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Avai or Draw

  • Avai holds a 58.2% for double chance with positive value at 2.62 .
  • Novorizontino averages 1.8 goals per game but concedes only 0.6, showing defensive solidity.
  • Avai’s defense concedes 0.8 goals per game, supporting a controlled game scenario.
  • Recent form shows Novorizontino with 10 points and Avai with 9 points, indicating competitive balance.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2.38 goals, suggesting moderate scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Avai or Draw with a 58.2% chance, reflecting Avai’s defensive resilience and ability to avoid losses away from home. Despite Novorizontino’s stronger league position and attacking numbers, Avai’s form and defensive stats suggest they can secure at least a draw. The at 2.62 offer positive value, making this a tactically sound selection. No data limitations affect , and the price aligns well with the model’s assessment, supporting a standard stake approach.

Model Chance58.2%
Strong positive
Implied Chance38.2%
Strong positive
Value Edge20%
Strong positive
Confidence78
Strong positive
Data QualityComplete data for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The Avai or Draw selection is supported by Avai’s defensive discipline and recent form that shows resilience away from home. Novorizontino’s attacking threat is notable, but Avai’s ability to limit goals conceded makes avoiding defeat a realistic outcome. This bet balances tactical defensive solidity with statistical backing from recent results and league positioning.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive resilience and tactical balance

“Avai’s defensive organization and recent form away from home make the double chance a smart tactical choice against a strong Novorizontino side that may struggle to break them down consistently.”

Key Data Signals

Avai or Draw evidence

Avai holds a 58.2% for double chance with positive value at 2.62 .

Novorizontino averages 1.8 goals per game but concedes only 0.6, showing defensive solidity.

Avai’s defense concedes 0.8 goals per game, supporting a controlled game scenario.

Recent form shows Novorizontino with 10 points and Avai with 9 points, indicating competitive balance.

What To Watch In The Data

Avai or Draw notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.38, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Novorizontino’s 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Avai’s 40%, suggesting the match could lean towards fewer goals and controlled tempo, aligning with the defensive strengths noted.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Novorizontino1.8
Avg goals scored
Avai1.2
Novorizontino0.6
Avg goals conceded
Avai0.8
Novorizontino40%
BTTS rate
Avai40%
Novorizontino60%
Over 2.5 goals
Avai40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Both teams have moderate scoring rates, with Novorizontino averaging 1.8 goals and Avai 1.2. Both teams to score rates are low at 40%, suggesting a controlled game with limited BTTS likelihood and a focus on defensive solidity rather than open attacking play.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Novorizontino

WWWDL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
29 Aug 2026H Sport Recife2-1
24 Aug 2026A Athletic Club4-1
21 Aug 2026H America Mineiro3-0
16 Aug 2026A CRB0-0
09 Aug 2026H Juventude0-1

Avai

LWWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
30 Aug 2026H Atletico Goianiense0-1
23 Aug 2026A Ponte Preta2-0
19 Aug 2026H Sport Recife2-1
16 Aug 2026A Operario-PR2-1
11 Aug 2026H CRB0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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Avai Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Avai to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
DrawBetUK guide price · model 27%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Novorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Recent form shows Novorizontino with 10 points and Avai with 9 from their last matches, highlighting competitive balance. Avai’s ability to secure points away from home supports the double chance selection, while Novorizontino’s form suggests they may struggle to decisively break down opponents.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Novorizontino4325127619
16Avai29258512-4
Novorizontino’s 4th place standing contrasts with Avai’s 16th, but the league table pressure is mitigated by Avai’s recent form and defensive resilience. The standings suggest Novorizontino’s motivation to maintain position, while Avai fights to climb, adding tactical intensity to the match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Avai Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Avai to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 27%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Novorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
The Avai or Draw market is priced attractively at 2.62 with a of 58.2%, indicating clear positive value. The reflect an underestimation of Avai’s defensive capabilities and recent form, making this a price-sensitive opportunity worth standard staking.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Novorizontino8.4
Avg corners for
Avai6.2
Novorizontino13.6
Avg total corners
Avai11
Novorizontino1.4
Avg yellow cards
Avai2.2
Novorizontino17.4
Avg shots
Avai16.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Novorizontino averages more corners (8.4) and shots (17.4) than Avai, indicating territorial control. However, Avai’s higher average yellow cards (2.2) reflect a physical approach to disrupt play, which could limit Novorizontino’s attacking flow and maintain a tight game.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Novorizontino wins
3Draws
2Avai wins
04 May 2026Avai v Novorizontino3-3
30 Apr 2026Novorizontino v Avai1-2
03 Aug 2025Novorizontino v Avai1-1
07 Apr 2025Avai v Novorizontino1-1
23 Oct 2024Novorizontino v Avai2-0
09 Jul 2024Avai v Novorizontino0-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Avai to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 27%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Novorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The head-to-head sample of eight matches shows an average of 2.38 goals, reflecting moderately open games but not high scoring. This history weakly supports the double chance on Avai or Draw, as previous encounters have been competitive without clear control by Novorizontino.
Season team stats

Serie B

Novorizontino25
Played
Avai25
Novorizontino1.6
Avg goals for
Avai1.1
Novorizontino0.9
Avg goals against
Avai1.2
Novorizontino9
Clean sheets
Avai7
Best odds for this sectionAvai Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
Load more odds for this section
Avai to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Novorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Novorizontino’s season stats show a strong attack with 1.8 goals per game and a tight defense conceding 0.6, while Avai’s stats reflect a more defensive posture with 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. This contrast supports a scenario where Avai can avoid defeat through disciplined defense.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Novorizontino Over 2.5
40%Avai Over 2.5
2.38H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.38, indicating moderate scoring. Novorizontino’s 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Avai’s 40%, suggesting the match could lean towards fewer goals and controlled tempo, aligning with the defensive strengths noted.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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