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Athletic Club crestAthletic Club
v
Vila Nova crestVila Nova

Serie B | Sat 05 Sep, 00:30

Athletic Club v Vila Nova Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Athletic Club face Vila Nova in Serie B on Sat 05 Sep, 00:30. Athletic Club come in with 6 recent points and 1.4 goals per match, while Vila Nova have 10 points and 2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • At 1.8, Over 9.5 Corners implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 69%.
  • Vila Nova lead the corner sample at 8.25 per match, with Athletic Club lower at 4.4.
  • Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: Athletic Club average 10 and Vila Nova average 14.5.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. Vila Nova lead the corner sample at 8.25 per match, with Athletic Club lower at 4.4.

Model chance vs price69% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Positive
Vila Nova lead the corner sample at 8.25 per match.Visible data support
Positive
Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 9.5 Corners is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Vila Nova lead the corner sample at 8.25 per match, with Athletic Club lower at 4.4. Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Vila Nova lead the corner sample at 8.25 per match, with Athletic Club lower at 4.4.

Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: Athletic Club average 10 and Vila Nova average 14.5.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Use corner averages alongside shot pressure to separate territory from real threat.
  • Check whether wide attacks are producing repeat deliveries rather than harmless possession.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Athletic Club4.4
Avg corners for
Vila Nova8.25
Athletic Club10.8
Avg total corners
Vila Nova14.75
Athletic Club2
Avg yellow cards
Vila Nova1.25
Athletic Club10
Avg shots
Vila Nova14.5
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +13.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 52%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Athletic Club1.4
Avg goals scored
Vila Nova2
Athletic Club1.8
Avg goals conceded
Vila Nova0.2
Athletic Club60%
BTTS rate
Vila Nova0%
Athletic Club60%
Over 2.5 goals
Vila Nova20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 67% · edge -0.7 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for Athletic Club and 20% for Vila Nova, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionVila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Load more odds for this section
Vila Nova to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Athletic Club Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Athletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Vila Nova Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Athletic Club

LLLWW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
29 Aug 2026A Nautico Recife1-2
24 Aug 2026H Novorizontino1-4
20 Aug 2026H CRB0-2
16 Aug 2026A America Mineiro3-1
09 Aug 2026H Criciuma2-0

Vila Nova

WDWWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
30 Aug 2026H Ceara2-0
23 Aug 2026A Operario-PR0-0
20 Aug 2026H Ponte Preta6-0
15 Aug 2026A Atletico Goianiense2-0
08 Aug 2026H Sport Recife0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 82% vs implied 67% · edge +15 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Vila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Vila Nova to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Athletic Club Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Athletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBetUK guide price · model 21%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Athletic Club wins
2Draws
1Vila Nova wins
04 May 2026Vila Nova v Athletic Club1-1
09 Sep 2025Vila Nova v Athletic Club1-1
07 May 2025Athletic Club v Vila Nova0-1
Best odds for this sectionVila Nova to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Athletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBetUK guide price · model 21%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The head-to-head sample gives context for Vila Nova to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Serie B

Athletic Club25
Played
Vila Nova25
Athletic Club1
Avg goals for
Vila Nova1.5
Athletic Club1.1
Avg goals against
Vila Nova1
Athletic Club6
Clean sheets
Vila Nova8
Best odds for this sectionVila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Load more odds for this section
Vila Nova to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Athletic Club Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Athletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Season data supports Vila Nova Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Vila Nova4425135712
13Athletic Club34258107-1
Athletic Club sit in position 13, while Vila Nova sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the Over 9.5 Corners assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Athletic Club Over 2.5
20%Vila Nova Over 2.5
1.67H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Athletic Club sit at 60% and Vila Nova sit at 20% with the H2H average at 1.67 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

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Competition and hubs

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Betting context

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