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Notts County crestNotts County
v
Burton Albion crestBurton Albion

League One | Sat 29 Aug, 15:00

Notts County v Burton Albion Stats

Data last updated: Fri 28 Aug 2026, 08:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Notts County and Burton Albion meet in a League One clash where both teams have shown a tendency to find the net in recent matches. Notts County have scored and conceded at a rate of 1.5 goals per game, while Burton Albion have a slightly better defensive record but an identical scoring average. Both sides have recorded 100% BTTS rates in their recent fixtures, suggesting an open game with attacking intent from both teams. Burton Albion's higher league position and recent form edge add competitive tension to this fixture, promising an engaging contest at the heart of the season.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches.
  • Notts County and Burton Albion each average 1.5 goals scored per game.
  • Burton Albion concede fewer goals on average, but still allow scoring opportunities.
  • Recent matches show balanced attacking and defensive outputs from both sides.
  • H2H meetings have averaged 2 goals per game, supporting goal involvement from both teams.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a strong 76% chance for both teams to score, reflecting consistent scoring and conceding patterns from both Notts County and Burton Albion. Both teams have maintained perfect BTTS rates recently, supported by balanced offensive and defensive statistics. The pricing at 1.8 offers positive value with a 20.4% edge, making this a compelling selection. Player-level data highlights key attackers like C. Webster who contribute significantly to their teams' goal threats, reinforcing the likelihood of goals at both ends.

Recent BTTS Rate100% for both teams
Strong positive
Goals Per Game1.5 goals scored and conceded on average
Positive
Model Probability76% chance of BTTS
Strong positive
Value Edge20.4% positive value
Strong positive
Key PlayersC. Grant and C. Webster show strong goal involvement
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have demonstrated consistent attacking output and vulnerability at the back, making a Both Teams to Score outcome tactically and statistically plausible. The presence of key attacking players and recent form data underline the likelihood of goals from both sides in this competitive League One fixture.

Main risk

That difference is small after only two matches, yet it sharpens the central issue here: both sides have been competitive, but Burton have so far made slightly better use of it.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“The attacking profiles of Notts County and Burton Albion, combined with their recent BTTS records, suggest a lively match where both sides are likely to find the net. Defensive frailties on both ends further support this expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches.

Notts County and Burton Albion each average 1.5 goals scored per game.

Burton Albion concede fewer goals on average, but still allow scoring opportunities.

Recent matches show balanced attacking and defensive outputs from both sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2 per game, indicating moderate scoring frequency.
  • Both teams' recent matches show a 50% rate for Over 2.5 Goals, suggesting a balanced tempo with potential for goals but not necessarily a high-scoring game, aligning well with the BTTS prediction.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Notts County1.5
Avg goals scored
Burton Albion1.5
Notts County1.5
Avg goals conceded
Burton Albion1
Notts County100%
BTTS rate
Burton Albion100%
Notts County50%
Over 2.5 goals
Burton Albion50%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams have scored and conceded at similar rates recently, with Notts County and Burton Albion each averaging 1.5 goals for and around 1 to 1.5 goals against per game. Their perfect recent BTTS rates and an average of 2 goals per game in their head-to-head meetings highlight a balanced offensive and defensive dynamic conducive to goals at both ends.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Notts County

DD
Last 50W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 0L
22 Aug 2026A Luton2-2
15 Aug 2026H Leicester1-1

Burton Albion

WD
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
22 Aug 2026A Leicester2-1
15 Aug 2026H Stevenage1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Burton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Notts County Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Notts County to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Recent form data shows both teams have maintained a 100% BTTS rate, with Notts County earning 2 points and Burton Albion 4 points in their last matches. Both sides have scored and conceded at similar rates, indicating ongoing offensive effectiveness paired with defensive vulnerabilities that support the likelihood of goals from both teams.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Burton Albion421101
15Notts County220200
Burton Albion's higher league position (7th) compared to Notts County (15th) reflects slightly better recent performances and consistency. However, both teams' points totals and goal records suggest a competitive fixture where both sides have motivation to attack and score, supporting the BTTS outlook without overemphasizing table pressure.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Burton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Notts County Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 38%
2
Check odds @ 2
The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively at 1.8, reflecting a 55.6% implied chance, which is significantly lower than the model's 76% probability. This positive indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of both teams scoring, making this a price-sensitive opportunity worth considering with standard stakes.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Notts County3
Avg corners for
Burton Albion2.5
Notts County9.5
Avg total corners
Burton Albion5
Notts County2.5
Avg yellow cards
Burton Albion1.5
Notts County11
Avg shots
Burton Albion11.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 38%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Burton Albion average more shots (11.5) compared to Notts County's 6, indicating greater attacking pressure, while both teams have similar shots on target (4 each). Notts County average slightly more corners (3) and have a higher yellow card rate (3 vs 1.5), suggesting a more aggressive style that could lead to set-piece chances and influence game flow.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Notts County wins
0Draws
0Burton Albion wins
24 Sep 2024Burton Albion v Notts County1-2
03 Sep 2013Notts County v Burton Albion1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Notts County to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The two recent meetings between Notts County and Burton Albion have averaged 2 goals per game, with both teams contributing to the scoreline. This limited sample supports the expectation of goals from both sides, although the small number of matches means current form and player availability carry greater weight in predicting BTTS outcomes.
Season team stats

League One

Notts County2
Played
Burton Albion2
Notts County1.5
Avg goals for
Burton Albion1.5
Notts County1.5
Avg goals against
Burton Albion1
Notts County0
Clean sheets
Burton Albion0
Best odds for this sectionBurton Albion Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 48% · edge +13.6 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Notts County Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Notts County to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Season-long statistics reveal that both Notts County and Burton Albion maintain balanced attacking and defensive profiles, each averaging 1.5 goals scored per game. Their defensive records allow for goal opportunities, reinforcing the BTTS market's relevance and the expectation of goals at both ends throughout the season.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Notts County Over 2.5
50%Burton Albion Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2 per game, indicating moderate scoring frequency. Both teams' recent matches show a 50% rate for Over 2.5 Goals, suggesting a balanced tempo with potential for goals but not necessarily a high-scoring game, aligning well with the BTTS prediction.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Notts County v Burton Albion prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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