Notts County

Grimsby

EFL Trophy | Tue 22 Sep, 19:00

Notts County v Grimsby Stats

Data last updated: Mon 21 Sep 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This EFL Trophy clash between Notts County and Grimsby sets up as an open contest with both sides likely to seek attacking opportunities. Recent form data is limited, but the fixture's knockout nature encourages offensive intent. Both teams have shown tendencies to create chances through midfield runners and wide play, suggesting a lively encounter. Tactical setups hint at transitional play and pressing, which could lead to defensive vulnerabilities and goal-scoring chances for both sides. The match carries moderate stakes, with both teams aiming to progress, adding to the attacking impetus.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Over 2.5 Goals

Price warning: current odds imply about 59%, above the 50% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
Average goals in last 10 meetings is 3.5, indicating a high-scoring trend
Player data shows Grimsby's Cian Doyle averages 5.63 shots on target per 90 minutes
Notts County attackers like C. Acquah contribute significant shot volume
Both teams have midfielders with goal threat and shot involvement, supporting attacking play

Price warning

Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 59% while the model sits nearer 50% (-8.8 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: BTTS No shows a +8.5 pts edge at 2.2.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model estimates a 58.1% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, supported by a high average of 3.5 goals in the last 10 head-to-head matches. Player-level data highlights strong attacking contributions from Grimsby's Cian Doyle and Notts County's forwards, indicating sustained offensive pressure. Despite limited recent form data, the fixture's competitive context and attacking player profiles suggest a match prone to multiple goals. The slight price shortness advises cautious staking but the football read for Over 2.5 Goals remains credible given the attacking tendencies and historical scoring patterns.

Model Probability58.1% chance of Over 2.5 Goals

Positive

Head-to-Head Average Goals3.5 goals per match in last 10 meetings

Strong positive

Player Shot VolumeCian Doyle 5.63 SOT/90, Notts County attackers active

Positive

Price SensitivitySlightly short odds at 1.7, caution advised

Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both Notts County and Grimsby pushing forward, as their attacking players have shown capacity to generate chances. The historical goal average and player shot data support a lively match with multiple goals. This bet aligns with the tactical context of a knockout cup tie where both teams seek to assert control through offense.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking player influence and historical scoring trends

“The attacking profiles of both teams, especially Grimsby's prolific shot-maker Cian Doyle and Notts County's forward line, suggest a fixture ripe for goals. The historical data confirms this trend, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical selection despite some price caution.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Average goals in last 10 meetings is 3.5, indicating a high-scoring trend

Player data shows Grimsby's Cian Doyle averages 5.63 shots on target per 90 minutes

Notts County attackers like C. Acquah contribute significant shot volume

Both teams have midfielders with goal threat and shot involvement, supporting attacking play

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

The last 10 meetings between Notts County and Grimsby have averaged 3.5 goals per game, a clear indicator of high-scoring encounters.
This trend suggests a fast tempo and open play, with both teams likely to create and concede chances, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals selection as a strong trend-based angle.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Notts County Over 2.5

-Grimsby Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

The last 10 meetings between Notts County and Grimsby have averaged 3.5 goals per game, a clear indicator of high-scoring encounters. This trend suggests a fast tempo and open play, with both teams likely to create and concede chances, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals selection as a strong trend-based angle.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Notts County

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Notts County yet.

Grimsby

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Grimsby yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 77% · edge -7.9 pts

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 57%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

Notts County Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.68

Check odds @ 1.68

Notts County to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Grimsby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Grimsby to WinBet365 guide price · model 31%

Check odds @ 3

DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Recent form data is sparse, but the competitive nature of the EFL Trophy and the attacking profiles of both squads suggest a propensity for open play and goal opportunities. Both teams are motivated to advance, likely encouraging offensive tactics that favor Over 2.5 Goals outcomes despite limited recent scoring data.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Notts County-

Avg goals scored

Grimsby-

Notts County-

Avg goals conceded

Grimsby-

Notts County-

BTTS rate

Grimsby-

Notts County-

Over 2.5 goals

Grimsby-

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 59% · edge -8.8 pts

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

The average of 3.5 goals per game in the last 10 head-to-head meetings highlights a strong trend toward high-scoring encounters. Both teams feature midfielders and forwards with notable shot volumes and goal threat, supporting the likelihood of goals from multiple sources and increasing the chance of BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals outcomes.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 59% · edge -8.8 pts

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

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Notts County Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.68

Check odds @ 1.68

Notts County to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Grimsby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Grimsby to WinBet365 guide price · model 31%

Check odds @ 3

DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.7 with an implied chance slightly above the model's 58.1% probability, indicating a slightly short price. While this suggests cautious staking, the market reflects the fixture's attacking potential and historical scoring patterns, warranting consideration with moderated stakes.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Notts County wins

0Draws

0Grimsby wins

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 59% · edge -8.8 pts

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

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Notts County to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Grimsby to WinBet365 guide price · model 31%

Check odds @ 3

DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows a consistent pattern of high scoring, averaging 3.5 goals per game. This historical data strongly supports the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture, reflecting tactical openness and attacking intent from both sides over time.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

EFL Trophy

Notts County0

Played

Grimsby0

Notts County0

Avg goals for

Grimsby-

Notts County0

Avg goals against

Grimsby-

Notts County0

Clean sheets

Grimsby-

Best odds for this sectionNotts County Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 60% · edge -7.5 pts

1.68

Check odds @ 1.68

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Notts County to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Grimsby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Grimsby to WinBet365 guide price · model 31%

Check odds @ 3

Season-long attacking statistics reveal that both teams possess players with above-average shot volumes and goal involvement, supporting an expectation of multiple goals. Defensive data is less complete, but the offensive numbers indicate a tendency toward open matches with scoring chances for both sides.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Notts County v Grimsby Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Notts County

Grimsby

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Football Stats Hub

Notts County v Grimsby Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Notts County

Grimsby

Continue the research

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