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Burton Albion crestBurton Albion
v
Nottingham Forest U21 crestNottingham Forest U21

EFL Trophy | Tue 22 Sep, 19:00

Burton Albion v Nottingham Forest U21 Stats

Data last updated: Mon 21 Sep 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burton Albion hosts Nottingham Forest U21 in an EFL Trophy clash where both sides have shown cautious approaches in recent fixtures. Burton Albion's squad features several attackers with notable shot volumes but limited goal returns, suggesting a focus on creating chances without prolific finishing. Nottingham Forest U21, with thinner data available, are expected to prioritize defensive solidity to contain Burton's attacking threats. The tactical setup and stakes of this cup tie point to a measured game with controlled tempo, increasing the likelihood of a lower-scoring contest.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Burton Albion attackers generate high shot volumes but have modest goal conversion rates.
  • Nottingham Forest U21 data is limited, indicating defensive caution and uncertainty in attacking output.
  • EFL Trophy matches often see tactical conservatism, especially in early stages.
  • Model projects a 54% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, with positive value at 2.62 .
  • Recent form data is sparse, reinforcing reliance on tactical context and player roles.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 54% probability, reflecting Burton Albion's high shot volume but low goal conversion and Nottingham Forest U21's defensive approach. The positive of 15.8% at 2.62 indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of a low-scoring game. Limited data on Nottingham Forest U21 means the model leans on Burton's attacking inefficiency and typical EFL Trophy tactical caution. This pick balances statistical signals and football context, though the thinner sample for the away side suggests monitoring line-ups and match tempo.

Model Chance54%
Positive
Implied Market Chance38.2%
Positive
Value Edge15.8%
Strong positive
Data QualityLimited Nottingham Forest U21 data
Neutral
Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and statistical analysis

“This fixture's tactical dynamics and Burton Albion's modest finishing efficiency point towards a low-scoring match, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible angle with good statistical backing.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Burton Albion attackers generate high shot volumes but have modest goal conversion rates.

Nottingham Forest U21 data is limited, indicating defensive caution and uncertainty in attacking output.

EFL Trophy matches often see tactical conservatism, especially in early stages.

Model projects a 54% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, with positive value at 2.62 .

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches in similar cup competitions, Under 2.5 Goals outcomes are common due to tactical conservatism and squad rotation.
  • The lack of historical head-to-head data between Burton Albion and Nottingham Forest U21 increases uncertainty, but general trends in this fixture type suggest a lower tempo and fewer goals, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals trend panel.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burton Albion

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Burton Albion yet.

Nottingham Forest U21

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Nottingham Forest U21 yet.

Best odds for this sectionNottingham Forest U21 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 32% · edge +9.7 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 79%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Burton Albion Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Burton Albion to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Nottingham Forest U21 to WinBetUK guide price · model 21%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
4
Check odds @ 4
Recent form data is sparse for both teams, limiting direct insights. However, Burton Albion's pattern of generating shots without high goal returns and Nottingham Forest U21's defensive focus in cup competitions suggest a trend towards low-scoring matches. This aligns with the Under 2.5 Goals pick, reflecting a cautious approach and controlled game tempo in recent outings.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burton Albion-
Avg goals scored
Nottingham Forest U21-
Burton Albion-
Avg goals conceded
Nottingham Forest U21-
Burton Albion-
BTTS rate
Nottingham Forest U21-
Burton Albion-
Over 2.5 goals
Nottingham Forest U21-
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2
Check odds @ 2
Goal and BTTS data is limited for both teams, especially Nottingham Forest U21, but Burton Albion's high shot volume contrasts with low goal output, indicating inefficiency in finishing. The tactical context of an EFL Trophy match often leads to cautious play, reducing goal-scoring chances and lowering BTTS likelihood. This supports a route to Under 2.5 Goals through controlled tempo and defensive discipline.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionNottingham Forest U21 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 32% · edge +9.7 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Burton Albion to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Nottingham Forest U21 to WinBetUK guide price · model 21%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.62, reflecting a positive of nearly 16%. The market underestimates the probability of a low-scoring game, likely due to Burton Albion's attacking shot volume which does not translate into high goal totals. This pricing suggests a watch-worthy opportunity with room for further improvement if defensive line-ups confirm conservative approaches.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Burton Albion wins
0Draws
0Nottingham Forest U21 wins
Best odds for this sectionBurton Albion to WinBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 65% · edge -9.3 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Nottingham Forest U21 to WinBetUK guide price · model 21%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
No previous meetings exist between Burton Albion and Nottingham Forest U21, limiting direct head-to-head insights. This absence places greater emphasis on current form, tactical context, and player roles to assess scoring potential, favoring cautious interpretations aligned with Under 2.5 Goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

EFL Trophy

Burton Albion0
Played
Nottingham Forest U210
Burton Albion0
Avg goals for
Nottingham Forest U210
Burton Albion0
Avg goals against
Nottingham Forest U210
Burton Albion0
Clean sheets
Nottingham Forest U210
Best odds for this sectionNottingham Forest U21 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 32% · edge +9.7 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Burton Albion to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Nottingham Forest U21 to WinBetUK guide price · model 21%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Season-long statistics indicate Burton Albion produces a high volume of shots but converts them into goals at a modest rate, while defensive metrics suggest a stable backline. Nottingham Forest U21's limited data restricts detailed analysis, but their youth squad status and typical cup match tactics imply defensive caution. These factors collectively support a lower goal total expectation consistent with Under 2.5 Goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Burton Albion Over 2.5
-Nottingham Forest U21 Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches in similar cup competitions, Under 2.5 Goals outcomes are common due to tactical conservatism and squad rotation. The lack of historical head-to-head data between Burton Albion and Nottingham Forest U21 increases uncertainty, but general trends in this fixture type suggest a lower tempo and fewer goals, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals trend panel.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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