Northern Ireland
HungaryUEFA Nations League | Mon 28 Sep, 19:45
Northern Ireland v Hungary Stats
Data last updated: Sun 27 Sep 2026, 08:22 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Northern Ireland hosts Hungary in a UEFA Nations League clash where both teams are eager to gain early momentum. Northern Ireland currently leads the group with three points from their opening match, showing defensive solidity and tactical discipline. Hungary, yet to score or earn points, faces pressure to respond but has struggled to create clear chances recently. Northern Ireland's home advantage and recent form suggest a controlled, strategic encounter with Northern Ireland aiming to capitalize on their solid start and maintain their top position in the group.
Northern Ireland to Win
- Northern Ireland leads the group with 3 points and a clean sheet from their last match.
- Hungary has yet to score or earn points, showing offensive struggles.
- Northern Ireland averages 12 shots per game with 5 on target, indicating attacking intent.
- Hungary averages more shots (17) but fewer on target (4), reflecting less accuracy.
- Northern Ireland's defensive discipline limits Hungary's goal threat, supporting a home win.
Why The Model Likes This Bet
Chance, price and football numbers
The model favors Northern Ireland to win with a 68.2% chance, reflecting their strong recent form and defensive resilience. Despite Hungary's higher average shots, Northern Ireland's superior shot accuracy and defensive organization create a favorable scenario. The price at 2.75 offers positive value given the implied chance is only 36.4%. The model is solid at 68, supported by Northern Ireland's group lead and Hungary's lack of goals. No data limitations affect this prediction, making it a well-founded selection.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
Northern Ireland's tactical discipline and home advantage position them well to secure victory against a Hungary side struggling to convert chances. Their recent clean sheet and group lead underscore a strong defensive foundation, while Hungary's offensive inefficiency adds to Northern Ireland's edge in this contest.
Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.
Quote from Expert
BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome
“Northern Ireland's blend of defensive organization and effective attacking transitions makes them the logical choice to win this fixture, especially given Hungary's current scoring difficulties.”
Key Data Signals
Northern Ireland to Win evidence
Northern Ireland leads the group with 3 points and a clean sheet from their last match.
Hungary has yet to score or earn points, showing offensive struggles.
Northern Ireland averages 12 shots per game with 5 on target, indicating attacking intent.
Hungary averages more shots (17) but fewer on target (4), reflecting less accuracy.
What To Watch In The Data
Northern Ireland to Win notes
- Recent matches between these teams and in the group show low goal totals, with an average of 1 goal per meeting.
- Over the last five matches in this competition, low scoring and defensive caution prevail, suggesting a match with limited goal-scoring opportunities and a slower tempo favoring defensive control.
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Useful next reads
Market odds
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Northern Ireland
Hungary
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Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
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