Northern Ireland
HungaryUEFA Nations League | Mon 28 Sep, 19:45
Northern Ireland v Hungary Stats
Data last updated: Mon 19 Oct 2026, 00:06 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Northern Ireland face Hungary in UEFA Nations League on Mon 28 Sep, 19:45. Northern Ireland return to Windsor Park with something more valuable than an opening Nations League victory: evidence that they can survive difficult periods and still find a decisive moment.
BTTS Yes
- Price warning: current odds imply about 49%, above the 33% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
- At 21/20, BTTS Yes implies roughly 49%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 33%.
- Selection: BTTS Yes.
- Northern Ireland show a 0% BTTS rate and Hungary show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
- Northern Ireland average 1 goals scored and Hungary average 0, so both attacking contributions need separating.
BTTS Yes is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 49% while the model sits nearer 33% (-15.5 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 4.5 Cards shows a +15 pts edge at 2.1.
Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive
Football case vs market price
The 33% for BTTS Yes sits against roughly 49% implied by the current price. Northern Ireland show a 0% BTTS rate and Hungary show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: BTTS Yes.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because selection: BTTS Yes. Northern Ireland show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Hungary show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. That does not establish how they will perform in Belfast, but it introduces a different test immediately after a frustrating home defeat.
That does not establish how they will perform in Belfast, but it introduces a different test immediately after a frustrating home defeat.
Key Data Signals
BTTS Yes evidence
Selection: BTTS Yes.
Northern Ireland show a 0% BTTS rate and Hungary show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Northern Ireland average 1 goals scored and Hungary average 0, so both attacking contributions need separating.
What To Watch In The Data
BTTS Yes notes
- Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Useful next reads
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Northern Ireland
Hungary
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Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
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