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Northampton crestNorthampton
v
Newport County crestNewport County

League Two | Sat 05 Sep, 15:00

Northampton v Newport County Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Northampton hosts Newport County in a League Two clash where recent form and attacking intent suggest an intriguing contest. Northampton has struggled to find the net, scoring just 0.5 goals per game in their last matches, while Newport County boasts a more potent attack with 2.25 goals per game. Newport's ability to score and their higher recent points tally indicate they may control the tempo and pose a significant threat. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, adding to the potential for an open game with chances for the visitors to capitalize.

BT4Y best bet

Newport County to Win

  • Newport County has scored 2.25 goals per game recently, showing strong attacking form.
  • Northampton has failed to score more than 0.5 goals per game in recent matches.
  • Newport County’s recent form includes 4 points compared to Northampton’s 3 points.
  • Newport County’s over 2.5 goals rate is 100%, indicating high-scoring potential.
  • Newport County’s shots on target average (3.75) slightly exceeds Northampton’s (3.0), reflecting attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Newport County to win based on their superior recent attacking output and form, with a 50.9% chance against a market-implied 22.2%, offering strong positive value. Newport’s consistent goal scoring and ability to create quality chances underpin this . The data quality is solid for both teams, supporting a reliable prediction. The model notes the visitors’ higher goal threat and recent momentum as key factors, making this an attractive selection at current .

Model Chance50.9%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance22.2%
Positive
Value Edge28.7%
Strong positive
Recent Goals For (Newport)2.25 per game
Strong positive
Recent Goals For (Northampton)0.5 per game
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Newport County’s attacking momentum and recent form give them a tactical edge in this matchup. Their ability to generate shots and goals contrasts with Northampton’s struggles to score, making a Newport win a plausible outcome supported by both form and attacking statistics.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Newport County’s offensive efficiency and recent points accumulation position them well to exploit Northampton’s defensive weaknesses in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Newport County to Win evidence

Newport County has scored 2.25 goals per game recently, showing strong attacking form.

Northampton has failed to score more than 0.5 goals per game in recent matches.

Newport County’s recent form includes 4 points compared to Northampton’s 3 points.

Newport County’s over 2.5 goals rate is 100%, indicating high-scoring potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Newport County to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.2, supporting an expectation of multiple goals.
  • Newport County’s recent 100% over 2.5 goals rate indicates a trend towards open, attacking games with scoring opportunities for both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Northampton0.5
Avg goals scored
Newport County2.25
Northampton0.75
Avg goals conceded
Newport County2.25
Northampton50%
BTTS rate
Newport County75%
Northampton0%
Over 2.5 goals
Newport County100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 32%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 33%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Newport County’s 100% over 2.5 goals rate and 75% BTTS rate suggest high-scoring matches with goals from both sides. Northampton’s lower scoring but moderate BTTS rate indicates they can contribute offensively, supporting a dynamic game with multiple goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNewport County to WinBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Newport County Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
The current for Newport County to win reflect significant value compared to the model’s 50.9% win probability. The market underestimates Newport’s recent attacking form and momentum, making this a positive value bet with good .
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Northampton6
Avg corners for
Newport County3.5
Northampton10
Avg total corners
Newport County11.75
Northampton1.25
Avg yellow cards
Newport County2
Northampton9.5
Avg shots
Newport County8.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
Northampton averages more corners (6) than Newport County (3.5), indicating territorial pressure. However, Newport’s higher shots on target (3.75) and more aggressive fouling (2 yellows per game) reflect an attacking and physical approach that could disrupt Northampton’s rhythm.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Northampton

DDLD
Last 50W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 1L
01 Sep 2026H Crawley Town1-1
29 Aug 2026A Gillingham1-1
22 Aug 2026A Crewe0-1
15 Aug 2026H Swindon Town0-0

Newport County

LDLW
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
01 Sep 2026A Salford City1-2
29 Aug 2026H Tranmere2-2
22 Aug 2026A Bristol Rovers3-5
15 Aug 2026H Rochdale3-0
Market aligned with main pickNewport County to WinBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Newport County Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Newport County’s recent form shows 4 points gained with a strong goal-scoring rate, contrasting with Northampton’s 3 points and limited offensive output. This momentum difference favors Newport’s and ability to control the match tempo.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Northampton wins
2Draws
2Newport County wins
07 Apr 2023Newport County v Northampton3-0
29 Oct 2022Northampton v Newport County1-1
08 Feb 2022Northampton v Newport County1-0
14 Sep 2021Newport County v Northampton0-1
14 Sep 2019Northampton v Newport County2-0
12 Mar 2019Northampton v Newport County1-0
Market aligned with main pickNewport County to WinBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While past results provide some context, recent form and attacking trends offer stronger signals for this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League Two

Northampton4
Played
Newport County4
Northampton0.5
Avg goals for
Newport County2.3
Northampton0.8
Avg goals against
Newport County2.3
Northampton1
Clean sheets
Newport County1
Market aligned with main pickNewport County to WinBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Newport County Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over the season, Newport County’s attack has been more productive, averaging higher goals per game and shots on target, while Northampton’s defense has conceded more, reinforcing Newport’s advantage in offensive capability.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
14Newport County441120
18Northampton34031-1
Newport County sits higher in the League Two table (14th) than Northampton (18th), reflecting slightly better overall performance and consistency, which may influence and tactical approach in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Northampton Over 2.5
100%Newport County Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.2, supporting an expectation of multiple goals. Newport County’s recent 100% over 2.5 goals rate indicates a trend towards open, attacking games with scoring opportunities for both sides.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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