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Nice crestNice
v
Metz crestMetz

Ligue 1 | Sun 17 May, 20:00

Nice v Metz Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 11:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nice face Metz in Ligue 1 on Sun 17 May, 20:00. Metz's last six games saw sixteen goals conceded, while their last five league outings all produced three or more goals. Nice are under immense pressure to end their 10-match home winless run.

BT4Y best bet

The winner of the game and also predict that both teams will score at least one goal

  • At 15/8, Nice Win implies roughly 35%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 62%.
  • Metz scored four against Le Havre but conceded four, and Nice have shipped 60 goals this season.
  • Nice have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Metz.
  • Nice have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Nice Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Nice sit 16 in the table, while Metz sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 62% for Nice Win sits against roughly 35% implied by the current price. Nice have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Metz. Metz scored four against Le Havre but conceded four, and Nice have shipped that scoring level this season.

Model chance vs price62% model chance against roughly 35% implied
Strong positive
Nice have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
Nice have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Metz scored four against Le Havre but conceded four.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Nice Win is the preferred angle because metz scored four against Le Havre but conceded four, and Nice have shipped that scoring level this season. Nice have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Metz. Trade-offs: Significant prices are available due to the difficulty, but one late goal can ruin the selection even if the general match narrative is correct.

Main risk

Trade-offs: Significant prices are available due to the difficulty, but one late goal can ruin the selection even if the general match narrative is correct.

Key Data Signals

Nice Win evidence

Metz scored four against Le Havre but conceded four, and Nice have shipped 60 goals this season.

Nice have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Metz.

Nice have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Nice Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Nice sit 16 in the table, while Metz sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Nice Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Nice0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Metz1.4
    Nice1
    Avg goals conceded
    Metz3.2
    Nice80%
    BTTS rate
    Metz80%
    Nice20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Metz100%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 52% · edge +23.6 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 57%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNice to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 75% · edge -13 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Nice Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 57%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Nice to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Nice3.4
    Avg corners for
    Metz5.2
    Nice9.8
    Avg total corners
    Metz11.4
    Nice1
    Avg yellow cards
    Metz1.4
    Nice8.8
    Avg shots
    Metz10.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 56% · edge +10.5 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Nice

    LDDDD
    Last 50W 4D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 4D 5L
    10 May 2026A Auxerre1-2
    02 May 2026H Lens1-1
    26 Apr 2026A Marseille1-1
    18 Apr 2026A Lille0-0
    12 Apr 2026H Le Havre1-1

    Metz

    LLDLL
    Last 50W 1D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 3D 7L
    10 May 2026H Lorient0-4
    02 May 2026H Monaco1-2
    26 Apr 2026A Le Havre4-4
    19 Apr 2026H Paris FC1-3
    10 Apr 2026A Marseille1-3
    Market aligned with main pickNice to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 75% · edge -13 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Nice Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.07
    Check odds @ 1.07
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Nice wins
    1Draws
    4Metz wins
    09 Nov 2025Metz v Nice2-1
    27 Jan 2024Nice v Metz1-0
    07 Oct 2023Metz v Nice0-1
    23 Jan 2022Metz v Nice0-2
    27 Nov 2021Nice v Metz0-1
    21 Feb 2021Nice v Metz1-2
    Market aligned with main pickNice to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 75% · edge -13 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 57%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Nice to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Ligue 1

    Nice36
    Played
    Metz34
    Nice1.1
    Avg goals for
    Metz0.9
    Nice1.7
    Avg goals against
    Metz2.2
    Nice7
    Clean sheets
    Metz7
    Market aligned with main pickNice to WinBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 75% · edge -13 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Nice Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Season data supports Nice to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    16Nice323471116-23
    18Metz17343823-44
    Nice sit in position 16, while Metz sit in position 18, so table pressure belongs in the Nice Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Nice Over 2.5
    100%Metz Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Nice sit at 20% and Metz sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Nice v Metz prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

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