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ST Mirren crestST Mirren
v
Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock

Premiership | Sat 09 May, 15:00

ST Mirren v Kilmarnock Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 04:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

ST Mirren face Kilmarnock in Premiership on Sat 09 May, 15:00. St Mirren have lost four straight but are organised at home, while Kilmarnock are winless in 14 away league games. St Mirren's home status balances against their poor form, while Kilmarnock's road struggles make the draw highly plausible.

BT4Y best bet

Rationale: St Mirren vs Kilmarnock – Draw The tactical setup for this encounter is heavily dictated by the fear of failure

  • At 11/2, Rationale: St Mirren vs Kilmarnock – Draw The tactical setup for this encounter is heavily dictated by the fear of failure implies roughly 15%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 30%.
  • With only three matches remaining, every misplaced pass, every missed chance and every defensive lapse suddenly feels heavier than usual.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for ST Mirren and 60% for Kilmarnock, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Kilmarnock are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with ST Mirren at 0.8.
  • BTTS rates of 20% for ST Mirren and 20% for Kilmarnock show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 30% for Rationale: St Mirren vs Kilmarnock – Draw The tactical setup for this encounter is heavily dictated by the fear of failure sits against roughly 15% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for ST Mirren and 60% for Kilmarnock, so the goals angle is not just a price call. With only three matches remaining, every misplaced pass, every missed chance and every defensive lapse suddenly feels heavier than usual.

Model chance vs price30% model chance against roughly 15% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for ST Mirren.Visible data support
Positive
Kilmarnock are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4.Visible data support
Positive
With only three matches remaining, every misplaced pass, every.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because kilmarnock's defensive issues on the road meet St Mirren's habit of playing in tight, low-scoring games. Kilmarnock are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with ST Mirren at 0.8. The concern for St Mirren is not simply the results themselves.

Main risk

The concern for St Mirren is not simply the results themselves.

Key Data Signals

Rationale: St Mirren vs Kilmarnock – Draw The tactical setup for this encounter is heavily dictated by the fear of failure evidence

Kilmarnock's defensive issues on the road meet St Mirren's habit of playing in tight, low-scoring games.

Kilmarnock are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with ST Mirren at 0.8.

BTTS rates of 20% for ST Mirren and 20% for Kilmarnock show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Rationale: St Mirren vs Kilmarnock – Draw The tactical setup for this encounter is heavily dictated by the fear of failure notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

ST Mirren0.8
Avg goals scored
Kilmarnock1.4
ST Mirren1
Avg goals conceded
Kilmarnock1.2
ST Mirren20%
BTTS rate
Kilmarnock20%
ST Mirren20%
Over 2.5 goals
Kilmarnock60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 50% · edge +1.8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 57%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 20% for ST Mirren and 60% for Kilmarnock, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

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Useful next reads

more Premiership analysisST Mirren v Kilmarnock predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionKilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Kilmarnock to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
ST Mirren Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
ST Mirren to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Kilmarnock Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

ST Mirren6
Avg corners for
Kilmarnock6
ST Mirren12.33
Avg total corners
Kilmarnock9.67
ST Mirren2
Avg yellow cards
Kilmarnock3.67
ST Mirren13
Avg shots
Kilmarnock11.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 60% · edge +8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

ST Mirren

LLLWW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
02 May 2026A Dundee0-1
25 Apr 2026H Livingston0-2
11 Apr 2026A Celtic0-1
04 Apr 2026H Aberdeen2-0
21 Mar 2026A Falkirk2-1

Kilmarnock

WLDLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
02 May 2026H Dundee Utd3-0
25 Apr 2026A Aberdeen0-1
11 Apr 2026H Dundee2-2
04 Apr 2026A Hibernian0-3
21 Mar 2026H Livingston2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Kilmarnock to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
ST Mirren Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
ST Mirren to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1ST Mirren wins
3Draws
6Kilmarnock wins
11 Feb 2026Kilmarnock v ST Mirren4-3
27 Dec 2025ST Mirren v Kilmarnock0-0
04 Oct 2025Kilmarnock v ST Mirren2-0
19 Sep 2025Kilmarnock v ST Mirren2-2
29 Mar 2025ST Mirren v Kilmarnock5-1
02 Jan 2025Kilmarnock v ST Mirren2-0
Best odds for this sectionKilmarnock to WinBetUK guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
ST Mirren to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The head-to-head sample gives context for Kilmarnock to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Season team stats

Premiership

ST Mirren40
Played
Kilmarnock38
ST Mirren0.8
Avg goals for
Kilmarnock1.3
ST Mirren1.4
Avg goals against
Kilmarnock1.8
ST Mirren10
Clean sheets
Kilmarnock9
Best odds for this sectionKilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Kilmarnock to WinBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
ST Mirren Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
ST Mirren to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Season data supports Kilmarnock Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10ST Mirren30337917-21
11Kilmarnock283361017-28
4Kilmarnock4038101018-18
5ST Mirren343881020-25
ST Mirren sit in position 5, while Kilmarnock sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Rationale: St Mirren vs Kilmarnock – Draw The tactical setup for this encounter is heavily dictated by the fear of failure assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%ST Mirren Over 2.5
60%Kilmarnock Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: ST Mirren sit at 20% and Kilmarnock sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

ST Mirren v Kilmarnock prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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