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Ekstraklasa | Sat 05 Sep, 19:15

Motor Lublin v Legia Warszawa Stats

Data last updated: Sun 06 Sep 2026, 14:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Legia Warszawa visits Motor Lublin in an Ekstraklasa clash where the away side holds a commanding recent form advantage, sitting second in the league with 12 points compared to Motor Lublin's 15th place and 5 points. Legia's attacking prowess, averaging 2.2 goals per game, contrasts with Motor Lublin's modest 0.8, while defensively Legia concedes only 0.8 goals per match. This fixture tests Legia's ability to maintain their strong away momentum against a Motor Lublin side struggling for consistency and goals. Tactical discipline and clinical finishing will be key factors in determining the outcome.

BT4Y best bet

Legia Warszawa to Win

  • Legia Warszawa ranks 2nd with 12 points; Motor Lublin is 15th with 5 points.
  • Legia averages 2.2 goals per game versus Motor Lublin's 0.8 goals.
  • Legia concedes only 0.8 goals per match, showing defensive solidity.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of Over 2.5 goals, indicating potential for goals.
  • Arsenić shows exceptional attacking threat from defense with 9 shots and 9 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Legia Warszawa to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior league position, stronger recent form, and better goal-scoring and defensive records. Legia's attacking efficiency and defensive resilience create a clear advantage over Motor Lublin, who have struggled to score and maintain defensive stability. The price offers positive value with a 14.4% edge, supporting a standard stake recommendation. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Legia's Goals For per Game2.2
Strong positive
Motor Lublin's Goals For per Game0.8
Negative
Legia's Goals Against per Game0.8
Positive
Price Value Edge14.4%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Legia Warszawa's superior form and attacking firepower make them the clear favorites to secure victory. Their ability to convert chances and maintain defensive discipline underpins this , while Motor Lublin's struggles in front of goal and lower league standing add to the likelihood of an away win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Legia Warszawa's blend of attacking threat and defensive solidity positions them strongly to overcome Motor Lublin, who have yet to find consistent form this season.”

Key Data Signals

Legia Warszawa to Win evidence

Legia Warszawa ranks 2nd with 12 points; Motor Lublin is 15th with 5 points.

Legia averages 2.2 goals per game versus Motor Lublin's 0.8 goals.

Legia concedes only 0.8 goals per match, showing defensive solidity.

Both teams have a 40% rate of Over 2.5 goals, indicating potential for goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Legia Warszawa to Win notes

  • The last eight head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 4.25 goals, indicating a historically open and high-scoring fixture.
  • This trend, combined with both teams' 40% Over 2.5 goals rate this season, suggests a lively match tempo with potential for multiple goals, aligning with attacking tendencies on both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Motor Lublin0.8
Avg goals scored
Legia Warszawa2.2
Motor Lublin1.6
Avg goals conceded
Legia Warszawa0.8
Motor Lublin60%
BTTS rate
Legia Warszawa80%
Motor Lublin40%
Over 2.5 goals
Legia Warszawa40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting moderate scoring frequency. Legia's average of 2.2 goals per game and Motor Lublin's defensive vulnerabilities hint at potential for multiple goals, while BTTS likelihood is tempered by Motor Lublin's lower scoring output, indicating a balanced goal-scoring scenario.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Motor Lublin

LDWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 3L
29 Aug 2026H Piast Gliwice0-2
22 Aug 2026A Korona Kielce1-1
16 Aug 2026H GKS Katowice1-0
08 Aug 2026A Pogon Szczecin1-3
31 Jul 2026H Jagiellonia1-2

Legia Warszawa

DDWDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 0L
28 Aug 2026H Slask Wroclaw1-1
22 Aug 2026A Piast Gliwice1-1
14 Aug 2026H Radomiak Radom5-0
08 Aug 2026A Korona Kielce1-1
02 Aug 2026H Zaglebie Lubin3-1
Market aligned with main pickLegia Warszawa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Legia Warszawa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Legia Warszawa's recent form is strong, accumulating 9 points with an average of 2.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per game, indicating both offensive potency and defensive stability. Motor Lublin's 4 points and 0.8 goals scored reflect offensive struggles, while conceding 1.6 goals per game points to defensive weaknesses, reinforcing Legia's favored status.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Legia Warszawa1574309
15Motor Lublin57124-5
Legia Warszawa sits comfortably in 2nd place with 12 points, reflecting consistent performance and title contention form. Motor Lublin's 15th position with 5 points indicates a relegation battle and inconsistency. The standings context emphasizes Legia's motivation to maintain momentum against a struggling opponent.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLegia Warszawa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Legia Warszawa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Legia Warszawa to Win is priced attractively with around 1.8, reflecting a model-implied 70% chance versus a market-implied 55.6%. This positive of 14.4% indicates the market underestimates Legia's chances, making the bet a sound value proposition without price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Motor Lublin4
Avg corners for
Legia Warszawa5.2
Motor Lublin6.8
Avg total corners
Legia Warszawa8.8
Motor Lublin1.8
Avg yellow cards
Legia Warszawa0.8
Motor Lublin15.6
Avg shots
Legia Warszawa15.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Legia Warszawa averages more corners (5.2) than Motor Lublin (4), reflecting territorial control and attacking pressure. Legia's lower average yellow cards (0.8) compared to Motor Lublin (1.8) suggests better discipline, which may reduce fouls and interruptions, supporting a fluid attacking game with quality shot opportunities.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Motor Lublin wins
2Draws
4Legia Warszawa wins
01 Sep 2026Motor Lublin v Legia Warszawa3-0
23 May 2026Legia Warszawa v Motor Lublin4-0
01 Dec 2025Motor Lublin v Legia Warszawa1-1
10 Mar 2025Motor Lublin v Legia Warszawa3-3
01 Sep 2024Legia Warszawa v Motor Lublin5-2
10 Dec 2022Legia Warszawa v Motor Lublin4-0
Market aligned with main pickLegia Warszawa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The head-to-head sample of eight matches shows an average of 4.25 goals per game, highlighting a historically open contest with frequent scoring. While this supports an attacking game environment, it only weakly supports the away win pick, as past results have varied, making current form and team quality more decisive.
Season team stats

Ekstraklasa

Motor Lublin7
Played
Legia Warszawa7
Motor Lublin1.1
Avg goals for
Legia Warszawa2.1
Motor Lublin1.9
Avg goals against
Legia Warszawa0.9
Motor Lublin1
Clean sheets
Legia Warszawa2
Market aligned with main pickLegia Warszawa to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Legia Warszawa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Legia Warszawa's season stats show a potent attack averaging 2.2 goals per match and a solid defense conceding just 0.8, underpinning their high league standing. Motor Lublin's lower scoring rate and higher goals conceded highlight their challenges, supporting the expectation of Legia's control in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Motor Lublin Over 2.5
40%Legia Warszawa Over 2.5
4.25H2H avg goals
The last eight head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 4.25 goals, indicating a historically open and high-scoring fixture. This trend, combined with both teams' 40% Over 2.5 goals rate this season, suggests a lively match tempo with potential for multiple goals, aligning with attacking tendencies on both sides.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.