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Southampton crestSouthampton
v
Middlesbrough crestMiddlesbrough

Championship | Tue 12 May, 20:00

Southampton v Middlesbrough Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 14:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Southampton face Middlesbrough in Championship on Tue 12 May, 20:00. Middlesbrough's propensity for 2-2 draws away from home aligns with Southampton's recent high-scoring stalemates at St Mary's stadium.

BT4Y best bet

A team and they win, you receive your payout; if the match ends in a draw, your stake is returned in full

  • At 10/1, Both Teams To Score implies roughly 9%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 73%.
  • Both teams have a consistent pattern of high-scoring draws.
  • Southampton show a 80% BTTS rate and Middlesbrough show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Southampton average 1.8 goals scored and Middlesbrough average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 73% for Both Teams To Score sits against roughly 9% implied by the current price. Southampton show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Middlesbrough show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Both teams have a consistent pattern of high-scoring draws.

Model chance vs price73% model chance against roughly 9% implied
Strong positive
Southampton show a 80% BTTS rate and Middlesbrough show a.Visible data support
Positive
Southampton average 1.8 goals scored and Middlesbrough average 2, so.Visible data support
Positive
Both teams have a consistent pattern of high-scoring draws.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because both teams have a consistent pattern of high-scoring draws. Southampton show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Middlesbrough show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. The absence of Hayden Hackney remains significant, because he normally gives Middlesbrough more rhythm and progression from deeper areas, but Riley McGree and Aidan Morris compensated impressively in the first leg.

Main risk

The absence of Hayden Hackney remains significant, because he normally gives Middlesbrough more rhythm and progression from deeper areas, but Riley McGree and Aidan Morris compensated impressively in the first leg.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score evidence

Both teams have a consistent pattern of high-scoring draws.

Southampton show a 80% BTTS rate and Middlesbrough show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Southampton average 1.8 goals scored and Middlesbrough average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Southampton1.8
Avg goals scored
Middlesbrough2
Southampton1.2
Avg goals conceded
Middlesbrough1
Southampton80%
BTTS rate
Middlesbrough60%
Southampton80%
Over 2.5 goals
Middlesbrough60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Middlesbrough to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Southampton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Middlesbrough Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Southampton to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Southampton6
Avg corners for
Middlesbrough6.4
Southampton13.4
Avg total corners
Middlesbrough9.8
Southampton1.6
Avg yellow cards
Middlesbrough1.4
Southampton13.6
Avg shots
Middlesbrough17
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Southampton

DWDDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 3D 0L
09 May 2026A Middlesbrough0-0
02 May 2026A Preston3-1
28 Apr 2026H Ipswich2-2
21 Apr 2026H Bristol City2-2
18 Apr 2026A Swansea2-1

Middlesbrough

DDWWD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 6D 2L
09 May 2026H Southampton0-0
02 May 2026A Wrexham2-2
25 Apr 2026H Watford5-1
22 Apr 2026H Sheffield Wednesday1-0
19 Apr 2026A Ipswich2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 65% · edge +7.8 pts
1.54
Check odds @ 1.54
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Middlesbrough to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Southampton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Middlesbrough Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Southampton to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Southampton wins
3Draws
3Middlesbrough wins
09 May 2026Middlesbrough v Southampton0-0
04 Jan 2026Middlesbrough v Southampton4-0
27 Sep 2025Southampton v Middlesbrough1-1
29 Mar 2024Southampton v Middlesbrough1-1
23 Sep 2023Middlesbrough v Southampton2-1
13 May 2017Middlesbrough v Southampton1-2
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Middlesbrough to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Southampton to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Championship

Southampton48
Played
Middlesbrough49
Southampton1.8
Avg goals for
Middlesbrough1.5
Southampton1.2
Avg goals against
Middlesbrough1
Southampton12
Clean sheets
Middlesbrough14
Best odds for this sectionMiddlesbrough to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 36% · edge +7.8 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Southampton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Middlesbrough Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Southampton to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Season data supports Middlesbrough to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Southampton804622141026
5Middlesbrough804622141025
Southampton sit in position 4, while Middlesbrough sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Both Teams To Score assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Southampton Over 2.5
60%Middlesbrough Over 2.5
2.33H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Southampton sit at 80% and Middlesbrough sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.33 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Southampton v Middlesbrough prediction

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Next step

Betting context

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