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Macara crestMacara
v
Tigre crestTigre

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Thu 07 May, 01:00

Macara v Tigre Stats

Data last updated: Wed 06 May 2026, 05:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Macara face Tigre in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Thu 07 May, 01:00. Macara come in with 10 recent points and 1.25 goals per match, while Tigre have 4 points and 1 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Macara to Win

  • At 2.6, Macara to Win implies roughly 39%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 54%.
  • Macara have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Tigre.
  • Macara have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.25 conceded per match, which helps the Macara to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 54% for Macara to Win sits against roughly 39% implied by the current price. Macara have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Tigre.

Model chance vs price54% model chance against roughly 39% implied
Strong positive
Macara have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Macara have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.25 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Macara Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Macara have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Tigre. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Macara to Win evidence

Macara have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Tigre.

Macara have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.25 conceded per match, which helps the Macara Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Macara to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Macara1.25
    Avg goals scored
    Tigre1
    Macara0.25
    Avg goals conceded
    Tigre0.67
    Macara25%
    BTTS rate
    Tigre33%
    Macara0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Tigre0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    5.5
    Check odds @ 5.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Macara

    WWDW
    Last 53W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 0L
    01 May 2026A Alianza Atletico2-0
    16 Apr 2026A Tigre1-0
    10 Apr 2026H America de Cali1-1
    06 Mar 2026A Orense SC1-0

    Tigre

    WLD
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    01 May 2026H America de Cali2-0
    16 Apr 2026H Macara0-1
    08 Apr 2026A Alianza Atletico1-1
    Market aligned with main pickMacara to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.39
    Check odds @ 1.39
    Macara Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Macara1062403
    2Tigre962313
    CONMEBOL Sudamericana standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickMacara to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Macara Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 37%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 59%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Macara to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Macara5.5
    Avg corners for
    Tigre4.33
    Macara11
    Avg total corners
    Tigre7.33
    Macara2
    Avg yellow cards
    Tigre2.67
    Macara11.25
    Avg shots
    Tigre11.33
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 58% · edge +1.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Macara wins
    0Draws
    0Tigre wins
    16 Apr 2026Tigre v Macara0-1
    Market aligned with main pickMacara to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 37%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Macara to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    CONMEBOL Sudamericana

    Macara7
    Played
    Tigre7
    Macara1
    Avg goals for
    Tigre1.6
    Macara0.4
    Avg goals against
    Tigre0.7
    Macara5
    Clean sheets
    Tigre3
    Market aligned with main pickMacara to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Macara Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Season data supports Macara to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Macara Over 2.5
    0%Tigre Over 2.5
    1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Macara sit at 0% and Tigre sit at 0% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

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    Betting context

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