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Lyon crestLyon
v
Le Havre crestLe Havre

Ligue 1 | Sat 29 Aug, 19:45

Lyon v Le Havre Stats

Data last updated: Fri 28 Aug 2026, 08:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lyon returns to Ligue 1 action at Groupama Stadium following a 2-0 away victory over Toulouse and a recent Champions League exit. The team aims to extend an impressive August streak of six consecutive league wins and three clean sheets this month. Le Havre arrives with contrasting fortunes, having lost narrowly to Monaco and struggling to convert chances into goals, especially away from home where scoring has been scarce. Lyon's tactical approach focuses on efficient finishing and possession control, while Le Havre's resilience and defensive compactness may keep the contest tight but unlikely to prevent a home win.

BT4Y best bet

Lyon to Win

  • Lyon won their opening league match 2-0 with perfect shot conversion.
  • Le Havre has a poor away scoring record with just 12 goals last season.
  • Lyon kept three consecutive clean sheets in August Ligue 1 matches.
  • Le Havre lost five of seven league defeats by a single goal margin.
  • Lyon has won six straight Ligue 1 matches played in August.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Lyon to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their strong recent form and efficient attack evidenced by converting both shots on target against Toulouse. Le Havre's low away goal output and inability to score in recent meetings against Lyon reinforce this view. The at 1.67 offer positive value given the model's higher probability. Defensive vulnerabilities at home for Lyon are noted but outweighed by their attacking efficiency and Le Havre's finishing struggles.

Recent FormLyon's six consecutive August wins and clean sheets
Strong positive
Attacking Efficiency2 goals from 2 shots on target vs Toulouse
Strong positive
Le Havre Away ScoringOnly 12 away goals last season, no goals in 3 of last 4 vs Lyon
Positive
Defensive RiskLyon conceded 8 goals in last 3 home league matches last season
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lyon's clinical finishing and strong August form make them the clear favorites to secure victory at home. Le Havre's persistent scoring difficulties away from home and narrow recent defeats suggest they will struggle to break down Lyon's defense, despite some vulnerabilities. This match likely hinges on Lyon's ability to capitalize on limited chances and maintain defensive focus.

Main risk

Le Havre’s habit of losing narrowly suggests they may be able to prevent the game from becoming stretched, but Lyon’s recent scoring efficiency means even a small number of clear opportunities could.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Lyon's blend of efficient finishing and sustained winning momentum in August positions them well to overcome Le Havre's resilient but goal-shy side. Their ability to convert limited opportunities will be decisive.”

Key Data Signals

Lyon to Win evidence

Lyon won their opening league match 2-0 with perfect shot conversion.

Le Havre has a poor away scoring record with just 12 goals last season.

Lyon kept three consecutive clean sheets in August Ligue 1 matches.

Le Havre lost five of seven league defeats by a single goal margin.

What To Watch In The Data

Lyon to Win notes

  • In the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating moderately open games.
  • However, Le Havre has failed to score in three of the last four encounters at Lyon, suggesting a trend towards fewer goals from the away side.
  • This supports expectations of a controlled tempo with limited scoring opportunities for Le Havre.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lyon5
Avg corners for
Le Havre7
Lyon11
Avg total corners
Le Havre11
Lyon2
Avg yellow cards
Le Havre3
Lyon11
Avg shots
Le Havre15
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Le Havre averages more shots (15) and corners (7) than Lyon (11 shots, 5 corners), indicating they create chances through sustained pressure and wide play. However, Lyon's defensive resilience and efficient shot conversion limit Le Havre's effectiveness. Card counts are moderate, with Le Havre averaging slightly more yellows, reflecting a competitive but disciplined encounter.

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Useful next reads

Ligue 1 hubfull betting preview for Lyon v Le Havrecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lyon2
Avg goals scored
Le Havre0
Lyon0
Avg goals conceded
Le Havre1
Lyon0%
BTTS rate
Le Havre0%
Lyon0%
Over 2.5 goals
Le Havre0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams to score is unlikely given Lyon's recent clean sheets and Le Havre's poor away scoring record, including three scoreless matches in their last four visits to Lyon. The under 3.5 goals route is supported by Le Havre's tendency to lose narrowly and Lyon's efficient but not overwhelming attack, suggesting a controlled match with limited goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLyon to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 69% · edge +4.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Lyon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The current of 1.67 for Lyon to win reflect a market-implied 60% chance, which is below the model's 74% probability, indicating positive value. This price is attractive given Lyon's recent winning streak and Le Havre's scoring struggles, making the home win a sensible selection with a good balance of risk and reward.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lyon

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
22 Aug 2026A Toulouse2-0

Le Havre

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
23 Aug 2026H Monaco0-1
Market aligned with main pickLyon to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 69% · edge +4.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Lyon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Lyon's recent form is strong, with a 2-0 win in their opener and six consecutive August league victories, including three clean sheets. Le Havre's form contrasts sharply, having lost their opener 1-0 and only winning three of their last 19 matches across competitions. This disparity underlines Lyon's momentum and advantage heading into the fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Lyon wins
2Draws
1Le Havre wins
15 Mar 2026Le Havre v Lyon0-0
14 Dec 2025Lyon v Le Havre1-0
16 Mar 2025Lyon v Le Havre4-2
20 Oct 2024Le Havre v Lyon0-4
14 Jan 2024Le Havre v Lyon3-1
17 Sep 2023Lyon v Le Havre0-0
Market aligned with main pickLyon to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 69% · edge +4.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The recent head-to-head record shows Lyon's defensive strength at home, having kept Le Havre scoreless in three of the last four meetings. While the sample is moderate, it indicates Lyon's tactical control in this fixture and Le Havre's difficulty in breaking through, reinforcing the home win selection.
Season team stats

Ligue 1

Lyon1
Played
Le Havre1
Lyon2
Avg goals for
Le Havre0
Lyon0
Avg goals against
Le Havre1
Lyon1
Clean sheets
Le Havre0
Market aligned with main pickLyon to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 69% · edge +4.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Lyon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Lyon's season statistics show a potent attack with efficient shot conversion and a solid defensive record in August, while Le Havre struggles with low goal output, especially away. Lyon's ability to keep clean sheets and score multiple goals from limited chances supports the likelihood of a home victory.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Lyon311002
14Le Havre01001-1
Lyon sits comfortably in 4th place early in the season with 3 points, reflecting their winning start. Le Havre is 14th with no points, highlighting their challenging start. While early, the standings emphasize Lyon's stronger position and form advantage in the league hierarchy.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Lyon Over 2.5
0%Le Havre Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating moderately open games. However, Le Havre has failed to score in three of the last four encounters at Lyon, suggesting a trend towards fewer goals from the away side. This supports expectations of a controlled tempo with limited scoring opportunities for Le Havre.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Lyon v Le Havre prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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