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Lyon crestLyon
v
Le Havre crestLe Havre

Ligue 1 | Sat 29 Aug, 19:45

Lyon v Le Havre Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 03:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lyon face Le Havre in Ligue 1 on Sat 29 Aug, 19:45. Paulo Fonseca’s side opened their domestic campaign by beating Toulouse 2-0, scoring with both of their shots on target, before a 2-1 home defeat to Fenerbahce ended their Champions League run.

BT4Y best bet

Lyon to win

  • At 4/6, Lyon to win implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 65%.
  • Lyon’s Efficiency Masks a More Complicated Home Picture
  • Lyon have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Le Havre.
  • Lyon have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Lyon to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Lyon sit 2 in the table, while Le Havre sit 17, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 65% for Lyon to win sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. Lyon have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Le Havre. Lyon’s Efficiency Masks a More Complicated Home Picture

Model chance vs price65% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Neutral
Lyon have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Lyon have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Lyon’s Efficiency Masks a More Complicated Home PictureArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Lyon Win is the preferred angle because lyon’s Efficiency Masks a More Complicated Home Picture Lyon have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Le Havre. Le Havre’s habit of losing narrowly suggests they may be able to prevent the game from becoming stretched, but Lyon’s recent scoring efficiency means even a small number of clear opportunities could.

Main risk

Le Havre’s habit of losing narrowly suggests they may be able to prevent the game from becoming stretched, but Lyon’s recent scoring efficiency means even a small number of clear opportunities could.

Key Data Signals

Lyon to win evidence

Lyon’s Efficiency Masks a More Complicated Home Picture

Lyon have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Le Havre.

Lyon have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Lyon Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Lyon sit 2 in the table, while Le Havre sit 17, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Lyon to win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Lyon5
    Avg corners for
    Le Havre7
    Lyon11
    Avg total corners
    Le Havre11
    Lyon2
    Avg yellow cards
    Le Havre3
    Lyon11
    Avg shots
    Le Havre15
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Ligue 1 hubfull betting preview for Lyon v Le Havrecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Lyon2
    Avg goals scored
    Le Havre0
    Lyon0
    Avg goals conceded
    Le Havre1
    Lyon0%
    BTTS rate
    Le Havre0%
    Lyon0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Le Havre0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickLyon to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 69% · edge -4.3 pts
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Lyon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.24
    Check odds @ 1.24
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Lyon to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Lyon

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    22 Aug 2026A Toulouse2-0

    Le Havre

    L
    Last 50W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 1L
    23 Aug 2026H Monaco0-1
    Market aligned with main pickLyon to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 69% · edge -4.3 pts
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 85%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Lyon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.24
    Check odds @ 1.24
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Lyon wins
    2Draws
    1Le Havre wins
    15 Mar 2026Le Havre v Lyon0-0
    14 Dec 2025Lyon v Le Havre1-0
    16 Mar 2025Lyon v Le Havre4-2
    20 Oct 2024Le Havre v Lyon0-4
    14 Jan 2024Le Havre v Lyon3-1
    17 Sep 2023Lyon v Le Havre0-0
    Market aligned with main pickLyon to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 69% · edge -4.3 pts
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Lyon to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Ligue 1

    Lyon5
    Played
    Le Havre4
    Lyon2
    Avg goals for
    Le Havre0.5
    Lyon0.4
    Avg goals against
    Le Havre1
    Lyon3
    Clean sheets
    Le Havre1
    Market aligned with main pickLyon to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 69% · edge -4.3 pts
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Load more odds for this section
    Lyon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.24
    Check odds @ 1.24
    Season data supports Lyon to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Lyon1153208
    17Le Havre25023-3
    Lyon sit in position 2, while Le Havre sit in position 17, so table pressure belongs in the Lyon to win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Lyon Over 2.5
    0%Le Havre Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lyon sit at 0% and Le Havre sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Lyon v Le Havre prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

    Ligue 1 hubLigue 1 hubfull betting preview for Lyon v Le Havrecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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