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Lincoln crestLincoln
v
West Ham crestWest Ham

Championship | Wed 14 Oct, 20:00

Lincoln v West Ham Stats

Data last updated: Tue 13 Oct 2026, 11:17 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Championship clash features West Ham visiting Lincoln in a midweek fixture with West Ham currently third in the table and Lincoln sitting mid-table. West Ham have shown strong attacking form, averaging 3 goals per game recently, while Lincoln have struggled for goals, scoring less than one per match. West Ham's attacking midfielders and forwards have been key in creating chances and scoring, suggesting they will look to control the game offensively. Lincoln will aim to defend resolutely at home, but West Ham's quality and momentum make them clear favourites in this contest.

BT4Y best bet

West Ham to Win

  • West Ham ranks 3rd in the Championship with 16 points, Lincoln 16th with 11 points.
  • West Ham averages 3 goals per game recently, Lincoln only 0.8 goals per game.
  • West Ham averages 15.4 shots and 6.8 shots on target per match, compared to Lincoln's 12.4 shots and 3.6 on target.
  • Bowen has 5 goals and 3 assists this season, showing strong goal threat.
  • Ladefoged is active with 6.77 shots per 90 minutes but lower conversion rate.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates West Ham to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, attacking output, and league position. West Ham's average of 3 goals per game and higher shot volume underline their offensive control. Lincoln's lower scoring and defensive vulnerability support this view. Player data, including J. Bowen's goal and assist contributions, further strengthens West Ham's winning prospects. The price offers positive value with a 10.1% edge, making West Ham to win a confident selection. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Recent Goals ScoredWest Ham 3.0, Lincoln 0.8 per game
Strong positive
Shot VolumeWest Ham 15.4 avg shots, Lincoln 12.4
Positive
Key Player ImpactJ. Bowen 5 goals, 3 assists
Strong positive
Value Edge70% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+10.1 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

West Ham's strong attacking form and higher league standing make them the tactical and statistical favourites to win this match. Their ability to create and convert chances, led by J. Bowen, contrasts with Lincoln's lower scoring output, suggesting West Ham should secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“West Ham's offensive consistency and key players like Bowen provide a clear edge over Lincoln, whose defensive resilience will be tested. This match is poised for a West Ham win based on form and attacking quality.”

Key Data Signals

West Ham to Win evidence

West Ham ranks 3rd in the Championship with 16 points, Lincoln 16th with 11 points.

West Ham averages 3 goals per game recently, Lincoln only 0.8 goals per game.

West Ham averages 15.4 shots and 6.8 shots on target per match, compared to Lincoln's 12.4 shots and 3.6 on target.

Bowen has 5 goals and 3 assists this season, showing strong goal threat.

What To Watch In The Data

West Ham to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, West Ham has an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a high-tempo, attacking style.
  • Lincoln's lower over 2.5 rate at 40% suggests fewer high-scoring games.
  • This trend points to a likely open game with multiple goals, favoring over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lincoln0.8
Avg goals scored
West Ham3
Lincoln1.2
Avg goals conceded
West Ham1
Lincoln40%
BTTS rate
West Ham60%
Lincoln40%
Over 2.5 goals
West Ham80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
West Ham's recent matches show a high over 2.5 goals rate at 80%, while Lincoln's is 40%. Both teams to score is less likely given Lincoln's lower scoring and West Ham's solid defense, but the attacking strength of West Ham suggests goals are expected, favoring over 2.5 goals in this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Championship fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 60% · edge +10.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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West Ham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 70% for West Ham to Win sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+10.1 pts). West Ham have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Lincoln.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lincoln

LLWWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 4L
10 Oct 2026A Sheffield Utd0-3
19 Sep 2026H Swansea1-2
15 Sep 2026A Bristol City1-0
12 Sep 2026A Preston1-0
05 Sep 2026H Southampton1-1

West Ham

DDWWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 1L
09 Oct 2026H QPR1-1
19 Sep 2026A Millwall2-2
11 Sep 2026H Wrexham6-0
08 Sep 2026A Bolton3-2
05 Sep 2026H Derby3-0
Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 60% · edge +10.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
West Ham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
West Ham's recent form is strong, accumulating 11 points with an average of 3 goals scored and only 1 conceded per game. Lincoln has collected 7 points recently with a lower scoring rate and slightly higher goals conceded. This form disparity supports West Ham's chances to win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Lincoln Over 2.5
80%West Ham Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, West Ham has an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a high-tempo, attacking style. Lincoln's lower over 2.5 rate at 40% suggests fewer high-scoring games. This trend points to a likely open game with multiple goals, favoring over 2.5 goals in this fixture.

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