Football Stats Hub

Lillestrom crestLillestrom
v
Egnatia Rrogozhinë crestEgnatia Rrogozhinë

UEFA Europa League | Thu 27 Aug, 18:00

Lillestrom v Egnatia Rrogozhinë Stats

Data last updated: Wed 26 Aug 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Egnatia Rrogozhinë hosts Lillestrom in a Europa League playoff first leg marked by contrasting recent forms and attacking profiles. Egnatia have turned their European qualifiers into high-scoring affairs, averaging nearly five goals per match at home, while Lillestrom arrive winless in four with defensive vulnerabilities. The hosts face defensive personnel changes due to suspension and injury, adding to the open nature of the contest. Both teams have shown scoring ability but also defensive lapses, setting the stage for a potentially goal-rich encounter under Nevil Dede's attacking approach.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 56%, above the 34% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Egnatia’s European home games average 4.67 goals per match with 14 goals scored in three fixtures.
  • Lillestrom have conceded 1.67 goals per game over their last six matches across competitions.
  • Both teams scored in every one of Egnatia’s six European matches this season.
  • Lillestrom are winless in four matches, scoring only two goals in that span.
Price warning

Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 56% while the model sits nearer 34% (-21.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: BTTS No shows a +12.4 pts edge at 1.8.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The selection of Over 2.5 Goals reflects Egnatia’s prolific home scoring and Lillestrom’s recent defensive fragility. Egnatia’s six European fixtures have yielded 29 goals, averaging 4.83 per game, with no clean sheets kept. Lillestrom’s concession rate of 1.67 goals per match over their last six outings aligns with a multi-goal scenario. Despite the being lower than the market implied probability, the football context of attacking momentum and defensive absences supports this football-led pick. Reduced staking is advised due to the short price and .

Egnatia Home Scoring14 goals in 3 European home matches
Strong positive
Lillestrom Defensive Record1.67 goals conceded per game last 6 matches
Positive
Both Teams Scored in All Egnatia European Matches6 matches, 29 total goals
Strong positive
Model Chance vs Market Implied Chance34% model chance vs 53.5% implied chance
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The Over 2.5 Goals pick suits this fixture given Egnatia’s aggressive home scoring and Lillestrom’s recent defensive struggles. The hosts’ open style and personnel changes at the back increase scoring chances, while Lillestrom’s attack, led by Felix Va, can exploit defensive gaps. This combination points to a lively, goal-filled match.

Main risk

Those figures might ordinarily make the defensive record the main concern.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive weaknesses

“Egnatia’s home matches have been goal fests this season, and with Lillestrom’s defensive frailties and attacking potential, expecting three or more goals is a sound tactical and statistical call.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Egnatia’s European home games average 4.67 goals per match with 14 goals scored in three fixtures.

Lillestrom have conceded 1.67 goals per game over their last six matches across competitions.

Both teams scored in every one of Egnatia’s six European matches this season.

Lillestrom are winless in four matches, scoring only two goals in that span.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last six European matches involving Egnatia have averaged 4.83 goals per game, with both teams scoring in every fixture.
  • This recent trend of high-scoring, open matches suggests a fast tempo and attacking openness likely to continue, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals selection for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lillestrom0
Avg goals scored
Egnatia Rrogozhinë2
Lillestrom0
Avg goals conceded
Egnatia Rrogozhinë1.33
Lillestrom0%
BTTS rate
Egnatia Rrogozhinë67%
Lillestrom0%
Over 2.5 goals
Egnatia Rrogozhinë67%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 34% vs implied 56% · edge -21.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Both teams have scored in every one of Egnatia’s six European matches this season, highlighting a strong BTTS trend. Egnatia’s 18 goals scored and 11 conceded in these fixtures, combined with Lillestrom’s recent goals conceded, support a game where both sides find the net and the total goals exceed 2.5.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Europa League analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 34% vs implied 56% · edge -21.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Egnatia Rrogozhinë to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Lillestrom Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Lillestrom to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.87 with an implied chance of 53.5%, which is notably higher than the model’s 34% chance. This indicates a short price, suggesting the market expects a higher probability of goals than the model. The football context of Egnatia’s high-scoring home form and Lillestrom’s defensive issues justifies retaining the pick but with reduced stake and a watchful eye on price movement or team news.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lillestrom4
Avg corners for
Egnatia Rrogozhinë3
Lillestrom10
Avg total corners
Egnatia Rrogozhinë5
Lillestrom1
Avg yellow cards
Egnatia Rrogozhinë1.5
Lillestrom0
Avg shots
Egnatia Rrogozhinë0
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 55% · edge +3.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The match is likely to feature sustained attacking pressure, reflected in average corner counts of 4 for Lillestrom and 3 for Egnatia. Both teams average around 2 shots on target per game, indicating active offensive efforts. Discipline is moderate, with Egnatia averaging 1.5 yellow cards and Lillestrom 1 per match, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive encounter.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lillestrom

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
20 Aug 2026A Egnatia Rrogozhinë0-0

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

DWL
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
20 Aug 2026H Lillestrom0-0
13 Aug 2026H Shamrock Rovers5-1
04 Aug 2026A Shamrock Rovers1-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Egnatia Rrogozhinë to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Lillestrom Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Lillestrom to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Egnatia’s recent form shows a 67% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in their last matches, reflecting their high-scoring European run. Lillestrom, by contrast, have not hit Over 2.5 Goals recently, but their defensive concessions align with a game prone to multiple goals. The combination of Egnatia’s scoring momentum and Lillestrom’s defensive lapses supports the expectation of a goal-rich match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Lillestrom wins
1Draws
0Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins
20 Aug 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë v Lillestrom0-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 34% vs implied 56% · edge -21.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Egnatia Rrogozhinë to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Lillestrom to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The single previous meeting between these teams featured no goals, which is a limited sample and less indicative of current form. Given the contrasting recent attacking and defensive trends, this head-to-head data holds minimal weight compared to the broader season and European form evidence.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Europa League

Lillestrom1
Played
Egnatia Rrogozhinë3
Lillestrom0
Avg goals for
Egnatia Rrogozhinë2
Lillestrom0
Avg goals against
Egnatia Rrogozhinë1.3
Lillestrom1
Clean sheets
Egnatia Rrogozhinë1
Best odds for this sectionEgnatia Rrogozhinë Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Load more odds for this section
Egnatia Rrogozhinë to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Lillestrom Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Lillestrom to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Egnatia’s season European home stats reveal 14 goals in three matches, averaging 4.67 goals per game, underscoring their attacking potency. Lillestrom’s season defensive stats show they concede 1.67 goals per match over their last six outings, indicating vulnerability. These season-long trends reinforce the likelihood of a fixture with at least three goals scored.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Lillestrom Over 2.5
67%Egnatia Rrogozhinë Over 2.5
0H2H avg goals
The last six European matches involving Egnatia have averaged 4.83 goals per game, with both teams scoring in every fixture. This recent trend of high-scoring, open matches suggests a fast tempo and attacking openness likely to continue, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals selection for this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Lillestrom v Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

FC Iberia 1999 v JagielloniaUEFA Europa League · Thu 27 Aug 17:00Ararat-Armenia v Universitatea CraiovaUEFA Europa League · Thu 27 Aug 17:00Plzen v FK Crvena ZvezdaUEFA Europa League · Thu 27 Aug 18:00Red Bull Salzburg v Mjallby AIFUEFA Europa League · Thu 27 Aug 18:00

Competition and hubs

UEFA Europa League hubmore UEFA Europa League analysisrelated match predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre