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Lille crestLille
v
Estac Troyes crestEstac Troyes

Ligue 1 | Sun 13 Sep, 14:00

Lille v Estac Troyes Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lille hosts Estac Troyes in a Ligue 1 clash where both teams have shown contrasting defensive records but promising attacking intent. Lille has conceded just 0.67 goals per game while scoring 1.67, reflecting solid defense and efficient offense. Troyes, despite a leaky defense allowing 2.33 goals per game, has managed to score 1.33 on average. Troyes' tendency for open games and Lille's attacking pressure set the stage for a contest where both sides are likely to find the net. Recent form and tactical setups suggest an engaging match with goal-scoring opportunities at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Lille concedes only 0.67 goals per game, showing defensive resilience but still allows goals.
  • Estac Troyes concedes 2.33 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Both teams have scored in 67% of Troyes' matches, supporting BTTS.
  • Lille averages 10 shots per game with 6 on target, showing attacking threat.
  • Troyes averages 18 shots per game, indicating offensive ambition despite defensive issues.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 61.2% chance, well above the implied market probability of 52.4%, offering an 8.8% . Troyes' high goals conceded rate combined with their decent scoring record suggests they are likely to concede but also score. Lille's balanced attack and defense further support a scenario where both teams find the net. The level of 71% reflects solid data backing this pick without major data limitations or price warnings.

Model Probability61.2% chance of BTTS
Strong positive
Troyes Defensive Record2.33 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Troyes BTTS Rate67% of matches with both teams scoring
Strong positive
Lille Attack10 shots per game, 6 on target
Positive
Market Value Edge8.8% positive edge over implied odds
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams possess attacking qualities that make a BTTS outcome plausible. Troyes' defensive fragility combined with Lille's steady offensive output suggests goals at both ends. The data supports an open game where both sides are likely to score, making BTTS a tactically and statistically sound selection.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“Troyes' defensive struggles paired with their offensive willingness create a fertile ground for both teams to score, while Lille's balanced play ensures they will test Troyes' backline consistently.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Lille concedes only 0.67 goals per game, showing defensive resilience but still allows goals.

Estac Troyes concedes 2.33 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Both teams have scored in 67% of Troyes' matches, supporting BTTS.

Lille averages 10 shots per game with 6 on target, showing attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a relatively high-scoring head-to-head history.
  • Troyes' matches have a 67% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, while Lille's is 33%.
  • This trend suggests a tempo and openness conducive to multiple goals, aligning with the BTTS pick and the expectation of an open, attacking encounter.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lille1.67
Avg corners for
Estac Troyes7.33
Lille8
Avg total corners
Estac Troyes8.67
Lille1.33
Avg yellow cards
Estac Troyes1
Lille10
Avg shots
Estac Troyes15.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 53% vs implied 55% · edge -1.5 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Troyes averages 8.5 corners per game compared to Lille's 1.5, indicating Troyes often apply wide pressure and create set-piece opportunities. Lille's 10 shots per game with 6 on target contrast with Troyes' 18 shots but only 4 on target, suggesting Lille's finishing is more precise. Card counts are moderate, with Lille averaging 2 yellows and Troyes 1.5, reflecting a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lille1.67
Avg goals scored
Estac Troyes1.33
Lille0.67
Avg goals conceded
Estac Troyes2.33
Lille33%
BTTS rate
Estac Troyes67%
Lille33%
Over 2.5 goals
Estac Troyes67%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 52% · edge +8.8 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Lille averages 1.67 goals per game while conceding 0.67, showing a solid defense but consistent scoring. Troyes scores 1.33 but concedes 2.33 goals per game, highlighting defensive weaknesses. Troyes' 67% BTTS rate and Lille's 33% rate suggest Troyes' matches often feature goals at both ends, supporting a BTTS outcome in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 52% · edge +8.8 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Estac Troyes Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Lille to WinBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Lille Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Estac Troyes to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively with a 1.91 reflecting a 52.4% implied chance, while the model estimates a 61.2% probability. This 8.8% indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of both sides scoring, making this a positive value bet without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lille

WDW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
03 Sep 2026A Toulouse1-0
28 Aug 2026H Paris Saint Germain2-2
23 Aug 2026A Angers2-0

Estac Troyes

LWD
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
06 Sep 2026H Strasbourg2-6
29 Aug 2026A Lorient2-1
22 Aug 2026H Paris FC0-0
Best odds for this sectionEstac Troyes Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Lille to WinBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Lille Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Estac Troyes to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBetUK guide price · model 23%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Lille has accumulated 7 points with an average of 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game, showing balanced form. Troyes has 4 points, scoring 1.33 but conceding 2.33 per game, indicating defensive issues but offensive intent. Troyes' higher BTTS rate (67%) compared to Lille's (33%) reflects their matches often featuring goals at both ends, reinforcing the BTTS selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Lille wins
3Draws
3Estac Troyes wins
03 Jun 2023Estac Troyes v Lille1-1
15 Jan 2023Lille v Estac Troyes5-1
08 Jan 2023Lille v Estac Troyes2-0
01 May 2022Estac Troyes v Lille3-0
04 Dec 2021Lille v Estac Troyes2-1
20 Jan 2018Estac Troyes v Lille1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 52% · edge +8.8 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Lille to WinBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Estac Troyes to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetUK guide price · model 23%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
The last 10 meetings between Lille and Troyes have averaged 3 goals per game, indicating a history of open contests with multiple goals. This supports the BTTS pick as both teams have previously found the net regularly in this fixture, making the historical data a meaningful backdrop for the expected outcome.
Season team stats

Ligue 1

Lille3
Played
Estac Troyes3
Lille1.7
Avg goals for
Estac Troyes1.3
Lille0.7
Avg goals against
Estac Troyes2.3
Lille2
Clean sheets
Estac Troyes1
Best odds for this sectionEstac Troyes Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Load more odds for this section
Lille to WinBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Lille Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Estac Troyes to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
Season-long data shows Lille's strong defensive record with only 0.67 goals conceded per game, while Troyes concedes 2.33, the highest among the two. Both teams maintain decent scoring rates, with Lille at 1.67 and Troyes at 1.33 goals per game. Troyes' high BTTS rate of 67% contrasts with Lille's 33%, highlighting the likelihood of both teams scoring in this matchup.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Lille732103
9Estac Troyes43111-3
Lille sits 5th in Ligue 1 with 7 points, reflecting solid early-season form, while Troyes is 9th with 4 points. The mid-table positioning suggests both teams are competitive but not dominant, increasing the chance of an open game where both sides seek points and scoring opportunities, supporting the BTTS outlook.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Lille Over 2.5
67%Estac Troyes Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a relatively high-scoring head-to-head history. Troyes' matches have a 67% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, while Lille's is 33%. This trend suggests a tempo and openness conducive to multiple goals, aligning with the BTTS pick and the expectation of an open, attacking encounter.

Related football research

Fixture links

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