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Auxerre crestAuxerre
v
Nice crestNice

Ligue 1 | Sat 12 Sep, 19:45

Auxerre v Nice Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 08:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Auxerre face Nice in Ligue 1 on Sat 12 Sep, 19:45. Auxerre have scored in every league match this season, extending an eight-game scoring run, while Nice have struggled to score but face a vulnerable Auxerre defence.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams To Score YES

  • At 8/13, Both Teams To Score YES implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 72%.
  • Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.
  • Auxerre show a 100% BTTS rate and Nice show a 33% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Auxerre average 1.33 goals scored and Nice average 0.33, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 72% for Both Teams To Score YES sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. Auxerre show a 100% BTTS rate and Nice show a 33% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

Model chance vs price72% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Positive
Auxerre show a 100% BTTS rate and Nice show a.Visible data support
Positive
Auxerre average 1.33 goals scored and Nice average 0.33, so.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because selection: Both Teams To Score YES. Auxerre show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Nice show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Two draws suggest greater resistance than Auxerre have shown, although attacking restraint has come at a price.

Main risk

Two draws suggest greater resistance than Auxerre have shown, although attacking restraint has come at a price.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score YES evidence

Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

Auxerre show a 100% BTTS rate and Nice show a 33% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Auxerre average 1.33 goals scored and Nice average 0.33, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score YES notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Auxerre1.33
Avg goals scored
Nice0.33
Auxerre3.67
Avg goals conceded
Nice1.33
Auxerre100%
BTTS rate
Nice33%
Auxerre100%
Over 2.5 goals
Nice33%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 59% · edge +13.4 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 81%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 59% · edge +13.4 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Nice to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Nice Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Auxerre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Auxerre

LLL
Last 50W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 3L
04 Sep 2026A Lyon1-3
29 Aug 2026H Angers1-3
22 Aug 2026A Lens2-5

Nice

DLD
Last 50W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 1L
05 Sep 2026H Le Mans1-1
30 Aug 2026A Paris FC0-3
22 Aug 2026H Lorient0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 80% vs implied 69% · edge +10.3 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Nice to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Nice Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Auxerre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Auxerre to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Auxerre Over 2.5
33%Nice Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Auxerre sit at 100% and Nice sit at 33% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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