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Lazio crestLazio
v
Mantova crestMantova

Coppa Italia | Sun 16 Aug, 20:15

Lazio v Mantova Stats

Data last updated: Sun 06 Sep 2026, 04:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lazio face Mantova in Coppa Italia on Sun 16 Aug, 20:15. Mantova have averaged 57.1% possession across their last 10 league and Coppa Italia matches, yet their 5-0 loss to Frosinone with 57% of the ball shows why possession alone may not protect them in Rome.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Lazio to win and both teams to score

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 32%, above the 22% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 21/10, Lazio to win and both teams to score implies roughly 32%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 22%.
  • Gattuso’s Lazio open with strong attacking momentum from pre-season, led by Zaccagni and Ratkov.
Price warning

Lazio to win and both teams to score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 32% while the model sits nearer 22% (-10.4 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Mantova Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 5.25.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 22% for Lazio to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 32% implied by the current price. Gattuso’s Lazio open with strong attacking momentum from pre-season, led by Zaccagni and Ratkov.

Model chance vs price22% model chance against roughly 32% implied
Negative
Gattuso’s Lazio open with strong attacking momentum from pre-season.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -10.4 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Lazio Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because gattuso’s Lazio open with strong attacking momentum from pre-season, led by Zaccagni and Ratkov. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Lazio to win and both teams to score evidence

Gattuso’s Lazio open with strong attacking momentum from pre-season, led by Zaccagni and Ratkov.

What To Watch In The Data

Lazio to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 86% · edge -32.7 pts
1.16
Check odds @ 1.16
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Lazio to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Lazio Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lazio-
Avg goals scored
Mantova-
Lazio-
Avg goals conceded
Mantova-
Lazio-
BTTS rate
Mantova-
Lazio-
Over 2.5 goals
Mantova-
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +6.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lazio

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Lazio yet.

Mantova

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Mantova yet.

Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 94% · edge -20.5 pts
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
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Lazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.16
Check odds @ 1.16
Lazio to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Lazio wins
0Draws
0Mantova wins
Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 75% · edge -32.2 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Lazio to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
Season team stats

Coppa Italia

Lazio1
Played
Mantova2
Lazio0
Avg goals for
Mantova2
Lazio2
Avg goals against
Mantova2.5
Lazio0
Clean sheets
Mantova1
Market aligned with main pickLazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 86% · edge -32.7 pts
1.16
Check odds @ 1.16
Load more odds for this section
Lazio to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Season data supports Lazio Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Lazio Over 2.5
-Mantova Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Gattuso’s Lazio open with strong attacking momentum from pre-season, led by Zaccagni and Ratkov.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Lazio v Mantova prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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