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KuPS Akatemia crestKuPS Akatemia
v
PKKU crestPKKU

Ykkönen | Sun 16 Aug, 14:00

KuPS Akatemia v PKKU Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ykkönen clash features KuPS Akatemia hosting PKKU, with PKKU currently fourth in the standings and KuPS Akatemia languishing in 12th. PKKU arrives in better form, having secured 8 points recently compared to KuPS Akatemia's 2, and boasts a more balanced goal difference. The tactical battle is likely to favor PKKU's more consistent defensive shape and efficient attacking transitions, while KuPS Akatemia's struggles at the back could be exploited. The match carries significance for PKKU to maintain their promotion push, adding intensity to their approach.

BT4Y best bet

PKKU to Win

  • PKKU ranks 4th with 30 points; KuPS Akatemia is 12th with 11 points.
  • PKKU has earned 8 points recently versus KuPS Akatemia's 2, showing stronger momentum.
  • KuPS Akatemia concedes 2 goals per game on average, PKKU concedes 1.4, indicating defensive solidity.
  • PKKU's to win is 70%, with a positive of 22.4%.
  • Recent matches average over 3 goals, but PKKU's games have a lower BTTS rate, suggesting controlled attacking play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors PKKU to win based on their superior recent form, higher league standing, and a solid defensive record conceding fewer goals per game than KuPS Akatemia. Despite KuPS Akatemia's higher over 2.5 goals and BTTS rates, PKKU's consistent point accumulation and tactical discipline provide a strong foundation for victory. The 2.1 offer positive value, reflecting a 22.4% edge over the implied chance. No data limitations affect , supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Recent form pointsPKKU 8 vs KuPS Akatemia 2
Strong positive
League positionPKKU 4th vs KuPS Akatemia 12th
Strong positive
Goals conceded per gamePKKU 1.4 vs KuPS Akatemia 2
Positive
Model win probability70%
Strong positive
Value edge vs odds22.4% positive
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

PKKU's tactical discipline and superior recent form make them the clear choice to secure victory. Their ability to maintain defensive organization while capitalizing on chances contrasts with KuPS Akatemia's defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistent results, underpinning in PKKU's win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“PKKU's consistent defensive shape and momentum in the league position them well to exploit KuPS Akatemia's defensive frailties, making their win a logical outcome in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

PKKU to Win evidence

PKKU ranks 4th with 30 points; KuPS Akatemia is 12th with 11 points.

PKKU has earned 8 points recently versus KuPS Akatemia's 2, showing stronger momentum.

KuPS Akatemia concedes 2 goals per game on average, PKKU concedes 1.4, indicating defensive solidity.

PKKU's to win is 70%, with a positive of 22.4%.

What To Watch In The Data

PKKU to Win notes

  • The last eight meetings average 3.13 goals per game, indicating a history of open matches.
  • However, PKKU's recent matches have a lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to KuPS Akatemia's 80%, suggesting PKKU may aim to control the game's tempo and limit scoring opportunities, favoring a managed attacking approach rather than a high-scoring shootout.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

KuPS Akatemia1.2
Avg goals scored
PKKU1.4
KuPS Akatemia2
Avg goals conceded
PKKU1.4
KuPS Akatemia80%
BTTS rate
PKKU40%
KuPS Akatemia80%
Over 2.5 goals
PKKU40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 91% · edge -5 pts
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
KuPS Akatemia's matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals and BTTS, indicating open games with defensive vulnerabilities. PKKU's games show a more conservative 40% rate for both metrics, suggesting a tactical approach focused on control. This contrast implies a match where PKKU may manage the game tempo to limit KuPS Akatemia's attacking threats.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPKKU to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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PKKU Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
The of 2.1 for PKKU to win reflect a market that undervalues their 70% , presenting a clear value opportunity. This pricing aligns with PKKU's superior form and league standing, making the bet attractive without requiring caution for overpricing.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

KuPS Akatemia

LLDDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
11 Aug 2026A Rops1-2
07 Aug 2026H Inter Turku II0-1
30 Jul 2026A FC jazz2-2
26 Jul 2026H VJS2-2
18 Jul 2026A TPV1-3

PKKU

WDDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
11 Aug 2026H Inter Turku II1-0
05 Aug 2026A VJS0-0
31 Jul 2026H Tampere United4-4
25 Jul 2026A SalPa1-0
22 Jul 2026H VJS1-3
Market aligned with main pickPKKU to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
PKKU Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
PKKU's recent accumulation of 8 points contrasts sharply with KuPS Akatemia's 2, highlighting momentum and differences. PKKU's ability to secure points consistently reflects tactical cohesion and effective execution, while KuPS Akatemia's struggles suggest defensive lapses and inconsistency that PKKU can exploit.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2KuPS Akatemia wins
1Draws
5PKKU wins
29 May 2026PKKU v KuPS Akatemia3-0
06 Jul 2025KuPS Akatemia v PKKU0-1
28 Apr 2025PKKU v KuPS Akatemia2-2
05 Oct 2024KuPS Akatemia v PKKU2-3
20 Jul 2024KuPS Akatemia v PKKU1-2
12 May 2024PKKU v KuPS Akatemia1-2
Market aligned with main pickPKKU to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The head-to-head sample of eight matches shows an average of 3.13 goals, reflecting open encounters historically. While this suggests potential for goals, PKKU's recent defensive improvements and tactical discipline may reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring game this time, slightly weakening the direct H2H support for a wide-margin win but still favoring PKKU overall.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Ykkönen

KuPS Akatemia20
Played
PKKU19
KuPS Akatemia1.6
Avg goals for
PKKU1.8
KuPS Akatemia2.3
Avg goals against
PKKU1.4
KuPS Akatemia2
Clean sheets
PKKU6
Market aligned with main pickPKKU to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
PKKU Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over the season, PKKU's defensive record of 1.4 goals conceded per game supports their ability to contain opponents, while their 1.4 goals scored per game indicate balanced attacking output. KuPS Akatemia's higher concession rate of 2 goals per game and 1.2 goals scored suggest defensive frailty and less attacking potency, favoring PKKU's overall profile.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4PKKU30198658
12KuPS Akatemia11192512-14
PKKU's position in 4th place with 30 points reflects a strong promotion challenge, adding competitive pressure to maintain form. KuPS Akatemia's 12th place and 11 points underline their struggles and lower morale. The standings context emphasizes PKKU's motivation and tactical discipline to secure a vital away win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%KuPS Akatemia Over 2.5
40%PKKU Over 2.5
3.13H2H avg goals
The last eight meetings average 3.13 goals per game, indicating a history of open matches. However, PKKU's recent matches have a lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to KuPS Akatemia's 80%, suggesting PKKU may aim to control the game's tempo and limit scoring opportunities, favoring a managed attacking approach rather than a high-scoring shootout.

Related football research

Fixture links

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