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Japan crestJapan
v
Sweden crestSweden

World Cup | Fri 26 Jun, 00:00

Japan v Sweden Stats

Data last updated: Sat 18 Jul 2026, 04:17 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Japan face Sweden in World Cup on Fri 26 Jun, 00:00. Both sides have shown fantastic attacking form in this tournament, scoring six goals each across their opening two fixtures. Japan's recent dominant transition form places them ahead of Sweden who remain vulnerable under pressure.

BT4Y best bet

Line, exactly the zones Japan enjoy attacking

  • At 12/5, Japan Win implies roughly 29%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 57%.
  • The issue is whether they can attack without losing defensive balance.
  • Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Sweden.
  • Japan have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Japan Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 57% for Japan Win sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price. Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Sweden. The issue is whether they can attack without losing defensive balance.

Model chance vs price57% model chance against roughly 29% implied
Strong positive
Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
Japan have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
The issue is whether they can attack without losing.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Japan Win is the preferred angle because the issue is whether they can attack without losing defensive balance. Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Sweden. Sweden have the bigger urgency, but urgency in football can be a gift or a grenade.

Main risk

Sweden have the bigger urgency, but urgency in football can be a gift or a grenade.

Key Data Signals

Japan Win evidence

The issue is whether they can attack without losing defensive balance.

Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 3 for Sweden.

Japan have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Japan Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Japan Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Japan4.5
    Avg corners for
    Sweden4.5
    Japan8.5
    Avg total corners
    Sweden6.5
    Japan0
    Avg yellow cards
    Sweden1.5
    Japan10.5
    Avg shots
    Sweden14.5
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 48% · edge +0.2 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 33%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    World Cup fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Japan3
    Avg goals scored
    Sweden3
    Japan1
    Avg goals conceded
    Sweden3
    Japan50%
    BTTS rate
    Sweden100%
    Japan100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Sweden100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 58% · edge +20.2 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickJapan to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 54% · edge +3.2 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Japan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Japan to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Japan

    WD
    Last 51W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 0L
    21 Jun 2026A Tunisia4-0
    14 Jun 2026A Netherlands2-2

    Sweden

    LW
    Last 51W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 1L
    20 Jun 2026A Netherlands1-5
    15 Jun 2026H Tunisia5-1
    Market aligned with main pickJapan to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 54% · edge +3.2 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
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    Japan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 83%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Japan wins
    0Draws
    0Sweden wins
    Market aligned with main pickJapan to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 54% · edge +3.2 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Japan to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Japan4
    Played
    Sweden4
    Japan2
    Avg goals for
    Sweden1.8
    Japan1.3
    Avg goals against
    Sweden2.5
    Japan1
    Clean sheets
    Sweden0
    Market aligned with main pickJapan to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 54% · edge +3.2 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Japan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Season data supports Japan to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Japan531204
    3Sweden431110
    2Sweden431110
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Japan Over 2.5
    100%Sweden Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Japan sit at 100% and Sweden sit at 100%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Japan v Sweden prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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