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Japan crestJapan
v
Iceland crestIceland

Friendlies | Sun 31 May, 11:25

Japan v Iceland Stats

Data last updated: Mon 20 Jul 2026, 07:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Japan face Iceland in Friendlies on Sun 31 May, 11:25. For some players, this fixture may feel like a friendly. Combined with consecutive away clean sheets against England and Scotland, they are well-equipped to restrict Iceland's struggling frontline while hitting their regular attacking stride. Few teams enter the summer in better shape than Japan.

BT4Y best bet

Japan Win

  • At 8/11, Japan Win implies roughly 58%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 72%.
  • Japan's exceptional defensive line conceded just three goals during their ten qualifying matches.
  • Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Iceland.
  • Japan have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Japan Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 72% for Japan Win sits against roughly 58% implied by the current price. Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Iceland. Japan's exceptional defensive line conceded just three goals during their ten qualifying matches.

Model chance vs price72% model chance against roughly 58% implied
Positive
Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Japan have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Japan's exceptional defensive line conceded just three goals during.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Japan Win is the preferred angle because japan's exceptional defensive line conceded just three goals during their ten qualifying matches. Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Iceland. Iceland, meanwhile, arrive without the pressure of an imminent tournament, but that freedom can sometimes make a team dangerous.

Main risk

Iceland, meanwhile, arrive without the pressure of an imminent tournament, but that freedom can sometimes make a team dangerous.

Key Data Signals

Japan Win evidence

Japan's exceptional defensive line conceded just three goals during their ten qualifying matches.

Japan have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Iceland.

Japan have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Japan Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Japan Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Japan4.5
    Avg corners for
    Iceland1.5
    Japan11.5
    Avg total corners
    Iceland9.5
    Japan2
    Avg yellow cards
    Iceland1.5
    Japan12.5
    Avg shots
    Iceland4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 52% · edge +22.9 pts
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    more Friendlies analysisJapan v Iceland predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Japan1
    Avg goals scored
    Iceland1
    Japan0
    Avg goals conceded
    Iceland2.33
    Japan0%
    BTTS rate
    Iceland67%
    Japan0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Iceland67%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 35% · edge +31.3 pts
    2.88
    Check odds @ 2.88
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 56%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickJapan to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 86% · edge -14 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 56%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Japan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Japan to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Japan

    WW
    Last 52W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 0L
    31 Mar 2026A England1-0
    28 Mar 2026A Scotland1-0

    Iceland

    DDL
    Last 50W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 2D 1L
    31 Mar 2026A Haiti1-1
    28 Mar 2026A Canada2-2
    26 Feb 2026A Mexico0-4
    Market aligned with main pickJapan to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 86% · edge -14 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.03
    Check odds @ 1.03
    Japan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Japan wins
    0Draws
    0Iceland wins
    Market aligned with main pickJapan to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 86% · edge -14 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 56%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Japan to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    Friendlies

    Japan3
    Played
    Iceland5
    Japan1
    Avg goals for
    Iceland0.6
    Japan0
    Avg goals against
    Iceland2.2
    Japan3
    Clean sheets
    Iceland0
    Market aligned with main pickJapan to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 86% · edge -14 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Load more odds for this section
    Japan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Season data supports Japan to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Japan Over 2.5
    67%Iceland Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Japan sit at 0% and Iceland sit at 67%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Japan v Iceland prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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