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Inter crestInter
v
Parma crestParma

Serie A | Sun 03 May, 19:45

Inter v Parma Stats

Data last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026, 23:17 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Inter face Parma in Serie A on Sun 03 May, 19:45. Inter have scored 80 league goals, but Parma's 12 clean sheets and compact 3-5-2 suggest a professionally managed contest. Before that, Inter had been tearing through opponents with ruthless efficiency, winning four consecutive matches while scoring at least three goals in each.

BT4Y best bet

To win, Inter Milan must win the match AND the total goals scored by both teams must be 3 or fewer (0, 1, 2, or 3)

  • At 11/10, Inter Win implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 68%.
  • Inter have 16 clean sheets and a historic defensive record at San Siro.
  • Inter have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 8 for Parma.
  • Parma have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Inter Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Inter sit 1 in the table, while Parma sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 68% for Inter Win sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. Inter have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 8 for Parma. Inter have 16 clean sheets and a historic defensive record at San Siro.

Model chance vs price68% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Strong positive
Inter have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points.Visible data support
Positive
Parma have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Inter have 16 clean sheets and a historic defensive.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Inter Win is the preferred angle because inter have 16 clean sheets and a historic defensive record at San Siro. Inter have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 8 for Parma. There is a sense of inevitability around this Inter side, but football has a habit of delaying the party just when the champagne is being chilled.

Main risk

There is a sense of inevitability around this Inter side, but football has a habit of delaying the party just when the champagne is being chilled.

Key Data Signals

Inter Win evidence

Inter have 16 clean sheets and a historic defensive record at San Siro.

Inter have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 8 for Parma.

Parma have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Inter Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Inter sit 1 in the table, while Parma sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Inter Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Inter4.4
    Avg corners for
    Parma4
    Inter8.8
    Avg total corners
    Parma9.8
    Inter2.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Parma1.4
    Inter13.6
    Avg shots
    Parma8.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.2 pts
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    Serie A fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Inter v Parmacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Inter3
    Avg goals scored
    Parma0.8
    Inter1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Parma0.8
    Inter80%
    BTTS rate
    Parma40%
    Inter80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Parma0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 27% · edge +46.6 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 64%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 28%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickInter to WinBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 83% · edge -15.1 pts
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Inter Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 63%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Inter to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Inter

    DWWWD
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 3D 1L
    26 Apr 2026A Torino2-2
    17 Apr 2026H Cagliari3-0
    12 Apr 2026A Como4-3
    05 Apr 2026H AS Roma5-2
    22 Mar 2026A Fiorentina1-1

    Parma

    WWDDL
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 4D 2L
    25 Apr 2026H Pisa1-0
    18 Apr 2026A Udinese1-0
    12 Apr 2026H Napoli1-1
    04 Apr 2026A Lazio1-1
    21 Mar 2026H Cremonese0-2
    Market aligned with main pickInter to WinBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 83% · edge -15.1 pts
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Inter Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.03
    Check odds @ 1.03
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    7Inter wins
    3Draws
    0Parma wins
    07 Jan 2026Parma v Inter0-2
    05 Apr 2025Parma v Inter2-2
    06 Dec 2024Inter v Parma3-1
    10 Jan 2023Inter v Parma2-1
    08 Aug 2021Parma v Inter0-2
    04 Mar 2021Parma v Inter1-2
    Market aligned with main pickInter to WinBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 83% · edge -15.1 pts
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Inter to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Inter38
    Played
    Parma38
    Inter2.3
    Avg goals for
    Parma0.7
    Inter0.9
    Avg goals against
    Parma1.2
    Inter18
    Clean sheets
    Parma13
    Market aligned with main pickInter to WinBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 83% · edge -15.1 pts
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Inter Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Season data supports Inter to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Inter8738276554
    13Parma4538111215-18
    Inter sit in position 1, while Parma sit in position 13, so table pressure belongs in the Inter Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Inter Over 2.5
    0%Parma Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Inter sit at 80% and Parma sit at 0% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Inter v Parma prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Serie A hubSerie A fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Inter v Parmacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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