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SC Freiburg crestSC Freiburg
v
RB Leipzig crestRB Leipzig

Bundesliga | Sat 16 May, 14:30

SC Freiburg v RB Leipzig Stats

Data last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026, 10:43 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SC Freiburg face RB Leipzig in Bundesliga on Sat 16 May, 14:30. Freiburg have conceded eight goals in their last three league games. RB Leipzig are in sensational form, winning six of their last seven Bundesliga matches. Recent structural issues have seen the home defence breached frequently, especially in transition.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Ing one of three outcomes: Home Win (1), Draw (X), or Away Win (2)

  • At 2.45, SC Freiburg Win implies roughly 41%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Facing a Freiburg side that has conceded eight goals in three games and is distracted by a cup final, Leipzig are well-positioned.
  • RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for SC Freiburg.
  • RB Leipzig have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the SC Freiburg Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • SC Freiburg sit 7 in the table, while RB Leipzig sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Ing one of three outcomes: Home Win (1), Draw (X), or Away Win (2) is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 41% while the model sits nearer 27% (-13.8 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: RB Leipzig Draw No Bet shows a +21.1 pts edge at 1.82.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for SC Freiburg Win sits against roughly 41% implied by the current price. RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for SC Freiburg. Facing a Freiburg side that has conceded eight goals in three games and is distracted by a cup final, Leipzig are well-positioned.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 41% implied
Negative
RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 12.Visible data support
Positive
RB Leipzig have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Facing a Freiburg side that has conceded eight goals.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: SC Freiburg Win is the preferred angle because facing a Freiburg side that has conceded eight goals in three games and is distracted by a cup final, Leipzig are well-positioned. RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for SC Freiburg. The 4-1 defeat against Bayer Leverkusen earlier this month briefly interrupted momentum, but Leipzig immediately responded by beating St Pauli.

Main risk

The 4-1 defeat against Bayer Leverkusen earlier this month briefly interrupted momentum, but Leipzig immediately responded by beating St Pauli.

Key Data Signals

SC Freiburg Win evidence

Facing a Freiburg side that has conceded eight goals in three games and is distracted by a cup.

RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for SC Freiburg.

RB Leipzig have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the SC Freiburg Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

SC Freiburg sit 7 in the table, while RB Leipzig sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

SC Freiburg Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    SC Freiburg2.8
    Avg corners for
    RB Leipzig6.6
    SC Freiburg7.6
    Avg total corners
    RB Leipzig11.4
    SC Freiburg1.4
    Avg yellow cards
    RB Leipzig2.2
    SC Freiburg9.6
    Avg shots
    RB Leipzig18
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 61% vs implied 48% · edge +13.8 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    SC Freiburg1.2
    Avg goals scored
    RB Leipzig2
    SC Freiburg1.8
    Avg goals conceded
    RB Leipzig1.4
    SC Freiburg60%
    BTTS rate
    RB Leipzig80%
    SC Freiburg60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    RB Leipzig80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.6 pts
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 87%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 60% for SC Freiburg and 80% for RB Leipzig, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSC Freiburg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 41% · edge -13.8 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 61%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    SC Freiburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    SC Freiburg to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    SC Freiburg

    LDLWW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    10 May 2026A Hamburger SV2-3
    03 May 2026H VfL Wolfsburg1-1
    26 Apr 2026A Borussia Dortmund0-4
    19 Apr 2026H 1. FC Heidenheim2-1
    12 Apr 2026A FSV Mainz 051-0

    RB Leipzig

    WLWWW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 108W 0D 2L
    09 May 2026H FC St. Pauli2-1
    02 May 2026A Bayer Leverkusen1-4
    24 Apr 2026H Union Berlin3-1
    18 Apr 2026A Eintracht Frankfurt3-1
    11 Apr 2026H Borussia Mönchengladbach1-0
    Market aligned with main pickSC Freiburg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 41% · edge -13.8 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    SC Freiburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0SC Freiburg wins
    3Draws
    7RB Leipzig wins
    14 Jan 2026RB Leipzig v SC Freiburg2-0
    08 Mar 2025SC Freiburg v RB Leipzig0-0
    26 Oct 2024RB Leipzig v SC Freiburg3-1
    06 Apr 2024SC Freiburg v RB Leipzig1-4
    12 Nov 2023RB Leipzig v SC Freiburg3-1
    06 May 2023SC Freiburg v RB Leipzig0-1
    Market aligned with main pickSC Freiburg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 41% · edge -13.8 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    The head-to-head sample gives context for SC Freiburg to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Bundesliga

    SC Freiburg34
    Played
    RB Leipzig34
    SC Freiburg1.5
    Avg goals for
    RB Leipzig1.9
    SC Freiburg1.7
    Avg goals against
    RB Leipzig1.4
    SC Freiburg6
    Clean sheets
    RB Leipzig11
    Market aligned with main pickSC Freiburg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 41% · edge -13.8 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    SC Freiburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Season data supports SC Freiburg to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3RB Leipzig6534205919
    7SC Freiburg473413813-6
    SC Freiburg sit in position 7, while RB Leipzig sit in position 3, so table pressure belongs in the SC Freiburg Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%SC Freiburg Over 2.5
    80%RB Leipzig Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: SC Freiburg sit at 60% and RB Leipzig sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    SC Freiburg v RB Leipzig prediction

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