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Fulham crestFulham
v
Bournemouth crestBournemouth

Premier League | Sat 09 May, 15:00

Fulham v Bournemouth Stats

Data last updated: Sat 20 Jun 2026, 17:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fulham face Bournemouth in Premier League on Sat 09 May, 15:00. Bournemouth are currently on the longest active unbeaten run in the Premier League (15 matches). Bournemouth are in prolific scoring form but Fulham remain tough to dominate at Craven Cottage.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Line will need to stay compact because Bournemouth thrive when games become stretched

  • At 5/4, Fulham Win implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Fulham arrive bruised after a humbling 3-0 defeat to Arsenal, a match that spiralled away from them before half-time.
  • Bournemouth have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Fulham.
  • Fulham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Fulham Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Fulham sit 11 in the table, while Bournemouth sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Line will need to stay compact because Bournemouth thrive when games become stretched is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 44% while the model sits nearer 27% (-17.4 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Bournemouth Draw No Bet shows a +18.8 pts edge at 1.75.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Fulham Win sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. Bournemouth have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Fulham. Fulham arrive bruised after a humbling 3-0 defeat to Arsenal, a match that spiralled away from them before half-time.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Negative
Bournemouth have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points.Visible data support
Positive
Fulham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Fulham arrive bruised after a humbling 3-0 defeat.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Fulham Win is the preferred angle because fulham arrive bruised after a humbling 3-0 defeat to Arsenal, a match that spiralled away from them before half-time. Bournemouth have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Fulham. Raul Jimenez’s recent drought is frustrating, but Bournemouth are opponents he traditionally enjoys facing.

Main risk

Raul Jimenez’s recent drought is frustrating, but Bournemouth are opponents he traditionally enjoys facing.

Key Data Signals

Fulham Win evidence

Fulham arrive bruised after a humbling 3-0 defeat to Arsenal, a match that spiralled away from them before.

Bournemouth have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Fulham.

Fulham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Fulham Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Fulham sit 11 in the table, while Bournemouth sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Fulham Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Fulham0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Bournemouth2.2
    Fulham1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Bournemouth1.2
    Fulham20%
    BTTS rate
    Bournemouth80%
    Fulham40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Bournemouth100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 80% vs implied 86% · edge -5.3 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Over 1.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 40% for Fulham and 100% for Bournemouth, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFulham to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 40% · edge -13 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Fulham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Fulham to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Fulham4.8
    Avg corners for
    Bournemouth5.8
    Fulham10.6
    Avg total corners
    Bournemouth10.2
    Fulham1.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Bournemouth2.4
    Fulham15
    Avg shots
    Bournemouth13.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 46% · edge +8.9 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Fulham

    LWDLW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    02 May 2026A Arsenal0-3
    25 Apr 2026H Aston Villa1-0
    18 Apr 2026A Brentford0-0
    11 Apr 2026A Liverpool0-2
    21 Mar 2026H Burnley3-1

    Bournemouth

    WDWWD
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 6D 0L
    03 May 2026H Crystal Palace3-0
    22 Apr 2026H Leeds2-2
    18 Apr 2026A Newcastle2-1
    11 Apr 2026A Arsenal2-1
    20 Mar 2026H Manchester United2-2
    Market aligned with main pickFulham to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 40% · edge -13 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
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    Fulham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 49%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Fulham wins
    4Draws
    4Bournemouth wins
    03 Oct 2025Bournemouth v Fulham3-1
    14 Apr 2025Bournemouth v Fulham1-0
    29 Dec 2024Fulham v Bournemouth2-2
    10 Feb 2024Fulham v Bournemouth3-1
    26 Dec 2023Bournemouth v Fulham3-0
    01 Apr 2023Bournemouth v Fulham2-1
    Market aligned with main pickFulham to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 40% · edge -13 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Fulham to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Fulham38
    Played
    Bournemouth38
    Fulham1.2
    Avg goals for
    Bournemouth1.5
    Fulham1.3
    Avg goals against
    Bournemouth1.4
    Fulham9
    Clean sheets
    Bournemouth11
    Market aligned with main pickFulham to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 40% · edge -13 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Fulham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Season data supports Fulham to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    6Bournemouth5738131874
    11Fulham523815716-4
    Fulham sit in position 11, while Bournemouth sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Fulham Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Fulham Over 2.5
    100%Bournemouth Over 2.5
    2.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Fulham sit at 40% and Bournemouth sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Fulham v Bournemouth prediction

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