Football Stats Hub

Inter crestInter
v
Napoli crestNapoli

Serie A | Sat 05 Sep, 17:00

Inter v Napoli Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Inter Milan hosts Napoli in a key Serie A clash where Inter's unbeaten 14-match streak and defensive solidity set a strong foundation. Napoli arrives with recent struggles, including a home defeat to Como and the absence of Scott McTominay, a key midfield goal threat. Inter's control and attacking contributions from players like Hakan Calhanoglu contrast with Napoli's creativity challenges. Despite Napoli's unbeaten run against Inter in recent meetings, Inter's consistency and home advantage make them favorites in this tactical battle at San Siro.

BT4Y best bet

Inter to Win

  • Inter Milan is unbeaten in 14 matches with 9 wins, showing strong consistency.
  • Napoli has won only 4 of their last 9 matches, including a recent home loss to Como.
  • Inter's defense has conceded just 1 goal in their first two league games, highlighting solidity.
  • Key Napoli midfielder Scott McTominay is absent, weakening their central threat.
  • Hakan Calhanoglu has 6 direct goal involvements in 9 appearances against Napoli, boosting Inter's attack.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Inter to Win with a 65.7% chance, reflecting their unbeaten run, defensive strength, and home advantage. Napoli's recent loss of possession and shot control, combined with key absences like McTominay, reduce their attacking threat. Inter's ability to control matches and create quality chances, led by Calhanoglu, supports this pick. The price at 1.65 offers a small positive , making this a solid selection without major price sensitivity.

Unbeaten Run14 matches unbeaten with 9 wins
Strong positive
Defensive SolidityOnly 1 goal conceded in 2 league games
Strong positive
Napoli Form4 wins in last 9 matches, recent loss to Como
Negative
Key AbsenceScott McTominay missing, reducing midfield threat
Negative
Attacking EdgeCalhanoglu's 6 goal involvements vs Napoli
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Inter Milan's unbeaten streak and defensive discipline position them strongly to secure a home win against a Napoli side struggling with creativity and key absences. The data highlights Inter's control and attacking potency, particularly through Calhanoglu, making them the tactical and form favorites in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Inter

“Inter's blend of defensive resilience and midfield creativity, especially from Calhanoglu, gives them a clear edge over a Napoli side missing McTominay and lacking recent form consistency.”

Key Data Signals

Inter to Win evidence

Inter Milan is unbeaten in 14 matches with 9 wins, showing strong consistency.

Napoli has won only 4 of their last 9 matches, including a recent home loss to Como.

Inter's defense has conceded just 1 goal in their first two league games, highlighting solidity.

Key Napoli midfielder Scott McTominay is absent, weakening their central threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Inter to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.5, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo.
  • Recent meetings at San Siro have ended in draws, indicating tight contests.
  • The trend points to a match with controlled tempo and moderate goal expectations, aligning with a likely under 3.5 goals outcome.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Inter4.5
Avg corners for
Napoli3.5
Inter10
Avg total corners
Napoli9.5
Inter1.5
Avg yellow cards
Napoli1
Inter22
Avg shots
Napoli13
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 58% · edge +13.8 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
3
Check odds @ 3
Inter averages 4.5 corners and 22 shots per game with 1.5 yellow cards, indicating sustained pressure and controlled aggression. Napoli's lower averages—3.5 corners, 13 shots, and 1 yellow card—reflect a more subdued attacking approach. The data suggests Inter will dominate territory and shot volume, while discipline remains balanced for both sides.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubfull betting preview for Inter v Napolicorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Inter2.5
Avg goals scored
Napoli1.5
Inter0.5
Avg goals conceded
Napoli1
Inter50%
BTTS rate
Napoli50%
Inter50%
Over 2.5 goals
Napoli50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have shown moderate scoring rates recently, with Inter scoring 2.5 and Napoli 1.5 goals per game. Both teams to score rates stand at 50%, and recent matches suggest a tighter game under 3.5 goals is likely. Napoli's attacking struggles and Inter's defensive discipline support a BTTS No and under 3.5 goals scenario.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickInter to WinBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +5.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Inter Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The Inter to Win market at 1.65 reflects a small positive given the model's 65.7% win probability. The price fairly rewards Inter's unbeaten run and home advantage, with Napoli's recent form and absences justifying the . This price is attractive without being overly short, making it a solid betting angle.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Inter

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
30 Aug 2026A Cagliari1-0
22 Aug 2026H Monza4-1

Napoli

LW
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
30 Aug 2026H Como1-2
22 Aug 2026A Genoa2-0
Market aligned with main pickInter to WinBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +5.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Inter Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Inter's perfect start with two wins and 6 points contrasts with Napoli's 3 points from two matches, including a concerning home loss. Inter's form is marked by defensive solidity and efficient finishing, while Napoli's recent loss of possession and shot control highlight vulnerabilities. This form gap supports Inter's favored status in the match outcome.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Inter wins
5Draws
2Napoli wins
11 Jan 2026Inter v Napoli2-2
25 Oct 2025Napoli v Inter3-1
01 Mar 2025Napoli v Inter1-1
10 Nov 2024Inter v Napoli1-1
17 Mar 2024Inter v Napoli1-1
22 Jan 2024Napoli v Inter0-1
Market aligned with main pickInter to WinBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +5.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The last 10 meetings between Inter and Napoli average 2.5 goals per game, with Napoli unbeaten in five consecutive matches overall and three draws at San Siro recently. This historical balance suggests a competitive fixture, but current form and absences tip the scale towards Inter. The head-to-head data provides background but is tempered by recent tactical and personnel changes.
Season team stats

Serie A

Inter2
Played
Napoli2
Inter2.5
Avg goals for
Napoli1.5
Inter0.5
Avg goals against
Napoli1
Inter1
Clean sheets
Napoli1
Market aligned with main pickInter to WinBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +5.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Inter Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Inter's season stats show strong attacking output with 2.5 goals per game and a tight defense conceding only 0.5 goals. Napoli's 1.5 goals scored and 1 conceded per game reflect a less potent attack and more porous defense. These season-long trends reinforce Inter's advantage in controlling the match and limiting Napoli's scoring opportunities.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Inter622004
10Napoli321011
Inter sits 2nd in Serie A with 6 points, reflecting their strong start and title credentials. Napoli is 10th with 3 points, indicating early season inconsistency. While standings are early, Inter's position underlines their momentum and pressure to maintain form, whereas Napoli faces pressure to improve results and stabilize their campaign.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Inter Over 2.5
50%Napoli Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.5, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo. Recent meetings at San Siro have ended in draws, indicating tight contests. The trend points to a match with controlled tempo and moderate goal expectations, aligning with a likely under 3.5 goals outcome.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Inter v Napoli prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Fiorentina v TorinoSerie A · Sat 05 Sep 14:00AS Roma v AtalantaSerie A · Sat 05 Sep 19:45Frosinone v VeneziaSerie A · Sun 06 Sep 14:00Parma v MonzaSerie A · Sun 06 Sep 14:00

Competition and hubs

Serie A hubSerie A hubfull betting preview for Inter v Napolicorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre