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India crestIndia
v
Uruguay crestUruguay

Friendlies | Tue 06 Oct, 15:00

India v Uruguay Stats

Data last updated: Tue 03 Nov 2026, 12:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

India face Uruguay in Friendlies on Tue 06 Oct, 15:00. Despite India's low scoring, Uruguay's attacking resurgence and defensive lapses support at least four total goals in this fixture. Uruguay's recent four-goal display and India's 13-match conceding streak set the stage for a high-scoring game.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3

  • At 41, Over 3 implies roughly 2%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 17%.
  • The Blue Tigers have conceded in each of their last 13 internationals.
  • Uruguay have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 2 for India.
  • Uruguay have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.25 conceded per match, which helps the Over 3 angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 17% for Over 3 sits against roughly 2% implied by the current price. Uruguay have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 2 for India. The Blue Tigers have conceded in each of their last 13 internationals.

Model chance vs price17% model chance against roughly 2% implied
Strong positive
Uruguay have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points.Visible data support
Positive
Uruguay have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.25 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
The Blue Tigers have conceded in each of their.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: India Win is the preferred angle because the Blue Tigers have conceded in each of their last 13 internationals. Uruguay have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 2 for India. The bigger concern ahead of Uruguay’s visit is at the other end.

Main risk

The bigger concern ahead of Uruguay’s visit is at the other end.

Key Data Signals

Over 3 evidence

The Blue Tigers have conceded in each of their last 13 internationals.

Uruguay have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 2 for India.

Uruguay have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.25 conceded per match, which helps the India Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    India0.6
    Avg goals scored
    Uruguay1.5
    India2
    Avg goals conceded
    Uruguay1.25
    India60%
    BTTS rate
    Uruguay75%
    India40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Uruguay50%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
    4.2
    Check odds @ 4.2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.06
    Check odds @ 1.06
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 30%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Friendlies hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickIndia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 17% vs implied 2% · edge +15 pts
    41
    Check odds @ 41
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 48%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    India to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    India

    LDDLL
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 2D 4L
    03 Oct 2026H Brazil0-4
    25 Sep 2026H Panama1-1
    09 Jun 2026A Tajikistan1-1
    05 Jun 2026A Tajikistan1-3
    30 May 2026H Zimbabwe0-1

    Uruguay

    WLDD
    Last 51W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 1L
    28 Sep 2026A South Korea4-1
    24 Sep 2026A Japan1-3
    31 Mar 2026A Algeria0-0
    27 Mar 2026A England1-1
    Market aligned with main pickIndia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 17% vs implied 2% · edge +15 pts
    41
    Check odds @ 41
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%India Over 2.5
    50%Uruguay Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: India sit at 40% and Uruguay sit at 50%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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