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Ilves crestIlves
v
Stjarnan crestStjarnan

UEFA Europa Conference League | Thu 30 Jul, 17:00

Ilves v Stjarnan Stats

Data last updated: Wed 29 Jul 2026, 03:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Europa Conference League tie features Ilves hosting Stjarnan in a contest where Stjarnan arrives with a slight edge in recent form and goal threat. Stjarnan has collected 7 points in recent matches compared to Ilves' 4, showing a more consistent offensive output. Both teams have shown contrasting attacking styles, with Stjarnan more prone to higher-scoring games. The fixture carries early-season stakes as both sides seek to establish momentum in European competition, with tactical discipline and finishing likely to be decisive factors in this closely matched encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Stjarnan to Win

  • Stjarnan holds a recent form advantage, earning 7 points to Ilves' 4 in latest matches.
  • Ilves averages 0.67 goals conceded per game, while Stjarnan concedes 1 goal per game, indicating a tighter Ilves defense.
  • Stjarnan's matches have a 67% rate of over 2.5 goals, compared to Ilves' 33%, suggesting more open games involving Stjarnan.
  • Kanga is a key attacking threat with 4 goals and 1.45 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • The single previous meeting between these teams averaged just 1 goal, highlighting potential for a tighter contest.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Stjarnan to win with a 59.5% chance based on recent form and attacking tendencies. Stjarnan's higher points tally and greater propensity for over 2.5 goals reflect a more dynamic offense, while Ilves' lower scoring and defensive solidity suggest a challenging match. Player-level data shows Ilves has attacking threats like J. Kanga, but Stjarnan's overall momentum and goal-scoring frequency provide a stronger edge. No price warnings apply, making this a standard selection supported by balanced data and tactical context.

Recent form advantageStjarnan 7 points vs Ilves 4
Positive
Goal scoring tendencyStjarnan 67% over 2.5 goals rate
Positive
Defensive solidityIlves concedes 0.67 goals per game
Neutral
Player attacking threatJ. Kanga 4 goals, 1.45 SOT/90
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Stjarnan's recent form and attacking style suggest they have the upper hand in this tie, especially given their higher scoring rate and ability to create chances. Ilves' defensive resilience may keep the match tight, but Stjarnan's momentum and offensive threat make them the likely winners in this early European fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical balance

“Stjarnan's consistent attacking output and recent form momentum give them a tactical and statistical edge over Ilves, who rely on defensive organization but lack the same offensive firepower.”

Key Data Signals

Stjarnan to Win evidence

Stjarnan holds a recent form advantage, earning 7 points to Ilves' 4 in latest matches.

Ilves averages 0.67 goals conceded per game, while Stjarnan concedes 1 goal per game, indicating a tighter Ilves defense.

Stjarnan's matches have a 67% rate of over 2.5 goals, compared to Ilves' 33%, suggesting more open games involving Stjarnan.

Kanga is a key attacking threat with 4 goals and 1.45 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Stjarnan to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Stjarnan's games have featured a 67% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for open, attacking contests.
  • Ilves' lower rate suggests a more cautious approach.
  • The single previous meeting averaged only 1 goal, highlighting that while Stjarnan tends to play open games, this fixture could be tighter due to tactical caution.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ilves1
Avg goals scored
Stjarnan2
Ilves0.67
Avg goals conceded
Stjarnan1
Ilves33%
BTTS rate
Stjarnan67%
Ilves33%
Over 2.5 goals
Stjarnan67%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 25%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Goal trends show Stjarnan's matches have a 67% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting openness and attacking intent, while Ilves' 33% rate points to more cautious games. Both teams have moderate BTTS rates, indicating that goals from both sides are possible but not guaranteed, setting up a contest with potential for multiple goals but some defensive organisation.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickStjarnan to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Load more odds for this section
Stjarnan Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The for Stjarnan to win reflect their recent form advantage and higher attacking output, aligning well with the model's 59.5% win probability. The market appears fairly priced with no significant , indicating a balanced betting scenario where Stjarnan's momentum is recognized but not overvalued.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ilves

LWD
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
23 Jul 2026A Stjarnan0-1
16 Jul 2026H FC Differdange 033-1
08 Jul 2026A FC Differdange 030-0

Stjarnan

WDW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
23 Jul 2026H Ilves1-0
16 Jul 2026A Vikingur Gota2-2
09 Jul 2026H Vikingur Gota3-1
Market aligned with main pickStjarnan to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Stjarnan Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Stjarnan's recent form is stronger, securing 7 points compared to Ilves' 4, reflecting better offensive execution and resilience. Stjarnan's higher over 2.5 goals rate aligns with their ability to influence match tempo and create scoring chances, while Ilves' lower goal output suggests a more defensive posture in recent games.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Ilves wins
0Draws
1Stjarnan wins
23 Jul 2026Stjarnan v Ilves1-0
Market aligned with main pickStjarnan to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The head-to-head sample is limited to one match, which ended with an average of 1 goal scored, indicating a low-scoring encounter. This limited history offers little predictive power, so current form and tactical approaches carry more weight in assessing the likely outcome of this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Europa Conference League

Ilves4
Played
Stjarnan4
Ilves1.3
Avg goals for
Stjarnan1.8
Ilves0.8
Avg goals against
Stjarnan1.3
Ilves1
Clean sheets
Stjarnan1
Market aligned with main pickStjarnan to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Load more odds for this section
Stjarnan Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Season-long statistics show Stjarnan as a more attack-oriented team with a higher frequency of goals and over 2.5 goal matches, contrasting with Ilves' more conservative scoring and tighter defense. This balance indicates Stjarnan's potential to break through Ilves' defensive setup, especially in an away fixture where they have shown resilience.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Ilves Over 2.5
67%Stjarnan Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Stjarnan's games have featured a 67% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for open, attacking contests. Ilves' lower rate suggests a more cautious approach. The single previous meeting averaged only 1 goal, highlighting that while Stjarnan tends to play open games, this fixture could be tighter due to tactical caution.

Related football research

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