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IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg
v
Sirius crestSirius

Allsvenskan | Sun 19 Jul, 15:30

IF Elfsborg v Sirius Stats

Data last updated: Mon 20 Jul 2026, 00:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sirius arrive at Borås Arena unbeaten and top of the Allsvenskan, boasting 33 goals in 12 matches and a nine-point lead. Their consistent scoring streak, including goals in every league game this season, contrasts with IF Elfsborg's recent struggles, having won only once in nine matches and failing to convert possession into clear chances. Elfsborg's tactical challenge lies in breaking down Sirius' lethal transition attack while maintaining defensive discipline against prolific forwards Robbie Ure and Isak Bjerkebo. This fixture pits a confident, clinical away side against a home team eager to halt their winless run and keep European qualification hopes alive.

BT4Y best bet

Sirius to Win

  • Sirius have scored in every league match this season and remain unbeaten with 8 wins and 2 draws in last 10 games.
  • IF Elfsborg have managed only one win in their last nine matches, with four draws and two defeats recently.
  • Sirius average 2.75 goals per game, the highest in the league, highlighting their attacking potency.
  • Recent head-to-head favors Sirius with two recent dominant wins, but Elfsborg have won 7 of the last 10 meetings overall.
  • Elfsborg struggle to turn possession into shots on target, averaging just 3.4 per game in last 10 matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Sirius to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their dominant attacking form and unbeaten league status. Their ability to score consistently, even without possession control, and recent head-to-head success against Elfsborg underpin this . Elfsborg's low conversion rate of possession into quality chances and recent poor results add to Sirius' edge. Data quality is solid for both teams, supporting a reliable prediction. The current of 1.67 offer positive value given Sirius' superior form and tactical advantages.

Sirius scoring consistency33 goals in 12 matches, scoring in every game
Strong positive
Elfsborg recent form1 win in last 9 matches, 4 draws, 2 defeats
Negative
Head-to-head recordSirius won last 2 matches decisively
Positive
Shots on target per gameSirius 6.1 vs Elfsborg 3.4 in last 10 matches
Strong positive
Data qualityComplete and balanced for both teams
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sirius' unbeaten run and prolific attack make them the clear favorites to win this match. Their clinical transition play and ability to score without dominating possession contrast with Elfsborg's recent struggles to convert possession into goals. The visitors' tactical discipline and recent head-to-head control provide a strong foundation for victory.

Main risk

The main risk is Sirius' five-player injury list, which could affect squad depth and defensive stability, potentially allowing Elfsborg to exploit gaps if Sirius cannot maintain their usual attacking threat.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Sirius attacking and tactical strength

“Sirius combine relentless attacking efficiency with tactical maturity, making them a formidable opponent even away from home. Their ability to capitalize on transitions and maintain scoring consistency sets them apart in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Sirius to Win evidence

Sirius have scored in every league match this season and remain unbeaten with 8 wins and 2 draws in last 10 games.

IF Elfsborg have managed only one win in their last nine matches, with four draws and two defeats recently.

Sirius average 2.75 goals per game, the highest in the league, highlighting their attacking potency.

Recent head-to-head favors Sirius with two recent dominant wins, but Elfsborg have won 7 of the last 10 meetings overall.

What To Watch In The Data

Sirius to Win notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3.7, with Sirius winning recent encounters by wide margins.
  • Sirius' 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently contrasts with Elfsborg's 40%, suggesting a high-tempo, goal-rich fixture likely favoring the visitors' attacking style.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

IF Elfsborg3.2
Avg corners for
Sirius5.6
IF Elfsborg8.6
Avg total corners
Sirius11.2
IF Elfsborg1
Avg yellow cards
Sirius1.6
IF Elfsborg12.2
Avg shots
Sirius14.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Sirius average more corners (4.33) and shots on target (7) than Elfsborg, reflecting their attacking pressure and territory. Elfsborg's lower shot volume and fewer corners highlight their struggle to create sustained chances. Sirius also accumulate more fouls won, indicating active attacking play that can lead to set-piece opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

IF Elfsborg1
Avg goals scored
Sirius2.8
IF Elfsborg1.4
Avg goals conceded
Sirius1.6
IF Elfsborg80%
BTTS rate
Sirius80%
IF Elfsborg40%
Over 2.5 goals
Sirius100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Sirius' average of 2.75 goals per game and scoring in every match suggest a high likelihood of goals. Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate recently, indicating both sides tend to score. Elfsborg's 1.4 goals conceded per game also supports the expectation of goals in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSirius to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 51% · edge +18.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Sirius Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The for Sirius to win at 1.67 reflect a positive value opportunity given their 70% . This price aligns well with their unbeaten status and superior attacking metrics, making the market price-sensitive but favorable. Any drift upwards would further enhance the value proposition.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

IF Elfsborg

LLDDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
12 Jul 2026A Gais0-1
05 Jul 2026H Hammarby FF1-2
29 May 2026A Orgryte IS2-2
25 May 2026H BK Hacken1-1
21 May 2026H Mjallby AIF1-1

Sirius

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 2D 0L
12 Jul 2026A IF Brommapojkarna2-1
03 Jul 2026H Mjallby AIF4-4
30 May 2026A AIK Stockholm3-0
24 May 2026H Gais2-1
18 May 2026A Djurgardens IF3-2
Market aligned with main pickSirius to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 51% · edge +18.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Sirius Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Sirius have collected 13 points from their last five matches, scoring 2.8 goals per game, showcasing strong momentum. Elfsborg's recent form is poor, with only 3 points from five games and a 40% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, indicating offensive struggles. This contrast favors Sirius' winning chances.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6IF Elfsborg wins
0Draws
4Sirius wins
08 Mar 2026IF Elfsborg v Sirius1-2
26 Oct 2025Sirius v IF Elfsborg4-0
23 Apr 2025IF Elfsborg v Sirius4-3
06 Oct 2024Sirius v IF Elfsborg4-1
29 Apr 2024IF Elfsborg v Sirius2-0
06 Aug 2023IF Elfsborg v Sirius1-0
Market aligned with main pickSirius to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 51% · edge +18.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Recent head-to-head matches favor Sirius, who have won the last two meetings decisively (4-1 and 4-0). However, Elfsborg have won seven of the last 10 overall, indicating a competitive historical rivalry. The recent control by Sirius suggests they have the tactical edge going into this match.
Season team stats

Allsvenskan

IF Elfsborg13
Played
Sirius13
IF Elfsborg1.3
Avg goals for
Sirius2.8
IF Elfsborg1.1
Avg goals against
Sirius1.2
IF Elfsborg3
Clean sheets
Sirius4
Market aligned with main pickSirius to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 51% · edge +18.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Sirius Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Sirius lead the league in goals scored with 33 in 12 matches, demonstrating a potent attack. Elfsborg's 17 goals and 1.2 goals conceded per match reflect a balanced but less threatening profile. Sirius' offensive control and Elfsborg's defensive vulnerabilities support the away win prediction.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Sirius3513112020
9IF Elfsborg18144641
Sirius top the Allsvenskan with 32 points, nine clear of Elfsborg who sit ninth with 18 points. This gap highlights the pressure on Elfsborg to improve results to keep European qualification hopes alive, while Sirius aim to maintain their lead and unbeaten record.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%IF Elfsborg Over 2.5
100%Sirius Over 2.5
3.7H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3.7, with Sirius winning recent encounters by wide margins. Sirius' 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently contrasts with Elfsborg's 40%, suggesting a high-tempo, goal-rich fixture likely favoring the visitors' attacking style.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

IF Elfsborg v Sirius prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

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Betting context

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