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Hull City crestHull City
v
Aston Villa crestAston Villa

Premier League | Sat 05 Sep, 17:30

Hull City v Aston Villa Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 11:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hull City face Aston Villa in Premier League on Sat 05 Sep, 17:30. Hull have taken six points from two Premier League matches without conceding, despite both opponents recording more than 1.0 xG. Villa’s goal drought is challenged by Hull’s defensive vulnerabilities, making BTTS a logical pick based on supplied metrics and recent form.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Both Teams To Score YES

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 58%, above the 33% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 8/11, Both Teams To Score YES implies roughly 58%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 33%.
  • Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.
  • Hull City show a 0% BTTS rate and Aston Villa show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Hull City average 1.5 goals scored and Aston Villa average 0, so both attacking contributions need separating.
Price warning

Both Teams To Score YES is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 58% while the model sits nearer 33% (-24.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 3.5 Cards shows a +15 pts edge at 1.83.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 33% for Both Teams To Score YES sits against roughly 58% implied by the current price. Hull City show a 0% BTTS rate and Aston Villa show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

Model chance vs price33% model chance against roughly 58% implied
Negative
Hull City show a 0% BTTS rate and Aston Villa.Visible data support
Positive
Hull City average 1.5 goals scored and Aston Villa average.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because selection: Both Teams To Score YES. Hull City show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Aston Villa show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Past meetings suggest a tight contest, though Hull’s defensive resilience poses a risk to this exact scoreline.

Main risk

Past meetings suggest a tight contest, though Hull’s defensive resilience poses a risk to this exact scoreline.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score YES evidence

Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

Hull City show a 0% BTTS rate and Aston Villa show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Hull City average 1.5 goals scored and Aston Villa average 0, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score YES notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hull City1.5
Avg goals scored
Aston Villa0
Hull City0
Avg goals conceded
Aston Villa2.5
Hull City0%
BTTS rate
Aston Villa0%
Hull City0%
Over 2.5 goals
Aston Villa50%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 57% · edge -23.8 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS Yes does not fully support the current price: the BTTS rates are 0% for Hull City and 0% for Aston Villa, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Premier League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Hull City v Aston Villafootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 57% · edge -23.8 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Hull City to WinBetfred guide price · model 38%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Hull City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Aston Villa to WinBetUK guide price · model 39%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Aston Villa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
BTTS Yes is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Hull City1.5
Avg corners for
Aston Villa2
Hull City7.5
Avg total corners
Aston Villa6.5
Hull City3
Avg yellow cards
Aston Villa3
Hull City7
Avg shots
Aston Villa6.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 29%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 35%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hull City

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
29 Aug 2026A Coventry1-0
22 Aug 2026H Manchester United2-0

Aston Villa

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
31 Aug 2026H Arsenal0-1
23 Aug 2026A Brighton0-4
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 52% · edge +8.2 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Hull City to WinBetfred guide price · model 38%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Hull City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Aston Villa to WinBetUK guide price · model 39%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Aston Villa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Hull City wins
4Draws
3Aston Villa wins
19 Jan 2019Aston Villa v Hull City2-2
06 Aug 2018Hull City v Aston Villa1-3
31 Mar 2018Hull City v Aston Villa0-0
05 Aug 2017Aston Villa v Hull City1-1
10 Feb 2015Hull City v Aston Villa2-0
31 Aug 2014Aston Villa v Hull City2-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 57% · edge -23.8 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Hull City to WinBetfred guide price · model 38%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Aston Villa to WinBetUK guide price · model 39%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premier League

Hull City5
Played
Aston Villa5
Hull City1.2
Avg goals for
Aston Villa0.8
Hull City0.8
Avg goals against
Aston Villa1.8
Hull City3
Clean sheets
Aston Villa1
Best odds for this sectionHull City to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 24% · edge +13.1 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Load more odds for this section
Hull City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Aston Villa to WinBetUK guide price · model 39%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Aston Villa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Season data supports Hull City to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Hull City852212
16Aston Villa45113-5
Hull City sit in position 8, while Aston Villa sit in position 16, so table pressure belongs in the Both Teams To Score YES assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Hull City Over 2.5
50%Aston Villa Over 2.5
2.38H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Hull City sit at 0% and Aston Villa sit at 50% with the H2H average at 2.38 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Hull City v Aston Villa prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Premier League hubPremier League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Hull City v Aston Villafootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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