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Hartlepool crest

Hartlepool

v

Worthing crest

Worthing

National League | Sat 19 Sep, 12:30

Hartlepool v Worthing Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hartlepool face Worthing in National League on Sat 19 Sep, 12:30. Hartlepool come in with 3 recent points and 0.4 goals per match, while Worthing have 5 points and 1.8 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Worthing to Win

At 2.9, Worthing to Win implies roughly 35%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
Worthing have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Hartlepool.
Hartlepool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Worthing to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Hartlepool sit 16 in the table, while Worthing sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 50% for Worthing to Win sits against roughly 35% implied by the current price. Worthing have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Hartlepool.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 35% implied

Strong positive

Worthing have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points.Visible data support

Positive

Hartlepool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Worthing Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Worthing have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Hartlepool. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Worthing to Win evidence

Worthing have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Hartlepool.

Hartlepool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Worthing Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Hartlepool sit 16 in the table, while Worthing sit 13, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Worthing to Win notes

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hartlepool0.4

Avg goals scored

Worthing1.8

Hartlepool1.2

Avg goals conceded

Worthing2

Hartlepool20%

BTTS rate

Worthing80%

Hartlepool20%

Over 2.5 goals

Worthing80%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 62% · edge +5 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%

1.2

Check odds @ 1.2

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 20% for Hartlepool and 80% for Worthing, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWorthing to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

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Worthing Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Worthing to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hartlepool

LLWLL

Last 51W 0D 4L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 0D 5L

16 Sep 2026A Altrincham1-2

11 Sep 2026A Kidderminster Harriers0-2

05 Sep 2026H Woking1-0

01 Sep 2026A FC Halifax Town0-1

28 Aug 2026H Eastleigh0-1

Worthing

WDDLL

Last 51W 2D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 2D 3L

15 Sep 2026H AFC Hornchurch1-0

12 Sep 2026H Barrow2-2

05 Sep 2026A AFC Fylde2-2

31 Aug 2026H Boreham Wood2-3

28 Aug 2026A Tamworth2-3

Market aligned with main pickWorthing to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Worthing Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Hartlepool wins

0Draws

0Worthing wins

Market aligned with main pickWorthing to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Worthing to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

National League

Hartlepool8

Played

Worthing8

Hartlepool0.8

Avg goals for

Worthing1.8

Hartlepool1

Avg goals against

Worthing1.8

Hartlepool3

Clean sheets

Worthing2

Market aligned with main pickWorthing to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

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Worthing Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Season data supports Worthing to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
13	Worthing	11	8	3	2	3	0
16	Hartlepool	9	8	3	0	5	-2

Hartlepool sit in position 16, while Worthing sit in position 13, so table pressure belongs in the Worthing to Win assessment.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Hartlepool Over 2.5

80%Worthing Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Hartlepool sit at 20% and Worthing sit at 80%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

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