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Hamburger SV crestHamburger SV
v
1. FC Köln crest1. FC Köln

Bundesliga | Sat 19 Sep, 14:30

Hamburger SV v 1. FC Köln Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hamburger SV face 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga on Sat 19 Sep, 14:30. Hamburger SV come in with 0 recent points and 0 goals per match, while 1. FC Köln have 4 points and 1.67 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

1. FC Köln to Win

  • FC Köln to Win implies roughly 41%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 56%.
  • FC Köln have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 0 for Hamburger SV.
  • FC Köln have the cleaner defensive sample at 2.33 conceded per match, which helps the 1. FC Köln to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Hamburger SV sit 18 in the table, while 1. FC Köln sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

FC Köln to Win sits against roughly 41% implied by the current price. FC Köln have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 0 for Hamburger SV.

Model chance vs price56% model chance against roughly 41% implied
Strong positive
FC Köln have the stronger recent points return, taking 4.Visible data support
Positive
FC Köln have the cleaner defensive sample at 2.33 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: 1. FC Köln Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers FC Köln have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 0 for Hamburger SV. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

1. FC Köln to Win evidence

FC Köln have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 0 for Hamburger SV.

FC Köln have the cleaner defensive sample at 2.33 conceded per match, which helps the 1. FC Köln Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Hamburger SV sit 18 in the table, while 1. FC Köln sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

1. FC Köln to Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Hamburger SV4
    Avg corners for
    1. FC Köln7.33
    Hamburger SV9
    Avg total corners
    1. FC Köln14.67
    Hamburger SV1.33
    Avg yellow cards
    1. FC Köln1.67
    Hamburger SV8.67
    Avg shots
    1. FC Köln17
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +13.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
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    Over 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 51%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Hamburger SV0
    Avg goals scored
    1. FC Köln1.67
    Hamburger SV4
    Avg goals conceded
    1. FC Köln2.33
    Hamburger SV0%
    BTTS rate
    1. FC Köln100%
    Hamburger SV67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    1. FC Köln67%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 82% vs implied 86% · edge -3.4 pts
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 1.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 67% for Hamburger SV and 67% for 1. FC Köln, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pick1. FC Köln to WinBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
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    1. FC Köln Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    FC Köln to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Hamburger SV

    LLL
    Last 50W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 3L
    13 Sep 2026A RB Leipzig0-5
    06 Sep 2026H FSV Mainz 050-5
    29 Aug 2026A Borussia Dortmund0-2

    1. FC Köln

    DLW
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    12 Sep 2026H Werder Bremen1-1
    04 Sep 2026A VfB Stuttgart1-4
    29 Aug 2026H 1899 Hoffenheim3-2
    Market aligned with main pick1. FC Köln to WinBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
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    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    1. FC Köln Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Hamburger SV wins
    3Draws
    31. FC Köln wins
    14 Mar 2026Hamburger SV v 1. FC Köln1-1
    02 Nov 20251. FC Köln v Hamburger SV4-1
    18 Jan 2025Hamburger SV v 1. FC Köln1-0
    02 Aug 20241. FC Köln v Hamburger SV1-2
    07 Jan 20231. FC Köln v Hamburger SV4-0
    18 Jan 20221. FC Köln v Hamburger SV1-1
    Market aligned with main pick1. FC Köln to WinBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    The head-to-head sample gives context for 1. FC Köln to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Bundesliga

    Hamburger SV3
    Played
    1. FC Köln3
    Hamburger SV0
    Avg goals for
    1. FC Köln1.7
    Hamburger SV4
    Avg goals against
    1. FC Köln2.3
    Hamburger SV0
    Clean sheets
    1. FC Köln0
    Market aligned with main pick1. FC Köln to WinBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    1. FC Köln Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Season data supports 1. FC Köln to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    121. FC Köln43111-2
    18Hamburger SV03003-12
    Hamburger SV sit in position 18, while 1. FC Köln sit in position 12, so table pressure belongs in the 1. FC Köln to Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    67%Hamburger SV Over 2.5
    67%1. FC Köln Over 2.5
    2.6H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Hamburger SV sit at 67% and 1. FC Köln sit at 67% with the H2H average at 2.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Betting context

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